The 2012 Republican Primary thread, early edition

[woot]

I wonder if AA has changed his view on that topic (I copied his post below for ease of viewing).



The problem, of course, is that every politician who is beating Romney in the polls is arguably a worse politician than Mitt. Gingrich has been all over the map on just about everything, not to mention he is devoid of values and has taken many truly indefensible positions. Cain- well, we all know how poor of a politician he was. Perry? A disaster. Bachmann? At least as bad as Perry. And yet- each one of those jokes of a political leader has, at some recent point, surpassed Romney and, I suspect, at least one of them may do so again.

AA is stuck believing that the Republican primary is about ideas. It's quite clearly not. Cain rose to the top by saying "9-9-9" over and over again, despite the fact that on policy grounds, almost nobody would support it (including Cain- after he learned it would devastate the poor, at which point it became 9-0-9 or something...). The Republican party ceased focusing on ideas about the time they began pushing Palin as the VP nominee. Many Republicans are now starting to realize, albeit too late, that their party has been hijacked. I suspect you will see quite a few Republicans leave their party (possibly going to some new third party) or leave politics altogether in the next few years. There's just nothing of substance to latch onto there.

I don't want to believe that the Republican party doesn't care about ideas, because it makes me feel like an extremist. I've never been a democrat, and even so have softened a lot on how I view politics, but still can't bring myself to even consider most of the absolute morons the Republicans present to the electorate. How can anyone be expected to vote for people who are so clearly antagonistic to reality? When will things that actually matter start being considered in candidates? I'm convinced that the only reason the Republican party still exists is the broken system that virtually eliminates the possibility of a viable third party.

[Uncle Ted]

Just thought I would note that once Cain faltered, someone else did in fact push ahead in SC (Gingrich now up by 20 in SC). It's not just SC where this phenomenon exists, either. You see evidence of it in Iowa and it will be a trend throughout the Southern primaries. Even in Florida Newt is up by double digits. And he's awful- by Republican standards!

By the way, in Michigan Newt is now ahead by 2 points.

Mitt disciples just aren't understanding a simple fact of life- the Republican base can't stand Mormons, and specifically can't stand Mitt. It doesn't matter at all if he is the most qualified. It matters not if he is the most successful. It is totally irrelevant if he is the most likely to beat Obama. He is a Mormon. To avoid nominating him, SC evangelicals will throw their support to literally anyone who isn't Mitt. Gingrich is a philandering sociopath who has sold his party's values out to the highest bidder repeatedly and yet- he's the top choice right now in SC by a mile. Because he isn't Mormon.

The Republican primary is a sad commentary on the Republican party. The party stopped debating on the merits a long time ago. This is what is left.

Yes. On the other hand, I often wonder why Mormons dislike Ron Paul and are biased so much toward Romney...

One of the very basic tenets of the LDS faith is agency or personal liberty. They believe it is crucial for every person to find out what is true and what isn't and to choose for themselves the best course of action in their lives. Right now the majority of Mormons are choosing to support Mitt Romney with their money and with their vote (in the 2008 GOP primary Mitt Romney took 90 percent of Utah, which is, of course, predominantly Mormon)

So what is it that Mormons love about Mitt so much? Among the current field of GOP candidates, he has had one of the least conservative stances on gay rights and abortion. He is well-known and well-criticized for Massachusetts' mandated health insurance, and most LDS do not want any part of socialized medicine. He supports torture, the Patriot Act, Gitmo, the wars, and all of the rumored pre-emptive wars that are currently being discussed, all of which violate the U.S. Constitution. He spoke in favor of bailing out the banks in 2008, which has only expanded the power of the federal government.

Romney is constantly touting himself as the only one who can fix the economy, but he does not have a plan bold enough to actually fix the problem. He plans to cut $500 billion from the federal budget by 2016, which conservative talk show hosts, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, have said of the GOP candidates' plans that they merely "fool around the margins," while Rep. Ron Paul's (R-TX) economic plan ("Plan to Restore America") will "get it done" by cutting 1 trillion dollars in spending in his first year.

[...]

Republicans and media try to paint Paul as "fringe," but he rejects that branding. He recently told the Des Moines Register editorial board, “Take a look at the Republican platform. They talk about personal liberty, a balanced budget, limited government, a strong national defense. They want free markets. I’m the best on all of those.” What many do not understand about Paul's views is that he wants the power back in the states' hands. He does not want to legislate morality at the federal level; he wants decisions like that made as locally as possible, to ensure as much personal liberty, or agency, as possible. Paul said, "Personal liberty is the purpose of government, to protect liberty -- not to run your personal life, not to run the economy, and not to pretend that we can tell the world how they ought to live."

Polls released this year show that 22 percent of Americans say they would not vote for their party's nominee if that person is a Mormon. These polls are, of course, disturbing to Mormons. But really, when there is clearly a more conservative, constitutional choice, shouldn't it be equally as unsettling to them that they would vote for someone just because he is a Mormon?

[frank ryan]

Yes. On the other hand, I often wonder why Mormons dislike Ron Paul and are biased so much toward Romney...

I used to call him batshit crazy, and maybe he still is, but Paul is one of the more honest and courageous on the debate platforms.
Of course I also like Huntsman.

[il Padrino Ute]

I don't want to believe that the Republican party doesn't care about ideas, because it makes me feel like an extremist. I've never been a democrat, and even so have softened a lot on how I view politics, but still can't bring myself to even consider most of the absolute morons the Republicans present to the electorate. How can anyone be expected to vote for people who are so clearly antagonistic to reality? When will things that actually matter start being considered in candidates? I'm convinced that the only reason the Republican party still exists is the broken system that virtually eliminates the possibility of a viable third party.

Can you expound a bit on this? What is your definition of reality that would make you believe that there are people who are antagonistic of it?

[calicoug]

Yes. On the other hand, I often wonder why Mormons dislike Ron Paul and are biased so much toward Romney...

I quite like Ron Paul. I would never- and I do mean never- vote for the man or recommend anyone else to do so, but that said, he is precisely the type of politician I admire and respect. His views are extreme and oftentimes carried to absurd conclusions, but he is honest without regard to political consequence and is passionate about issues based on policy preference rather than ideological preference. He can be too dogmatic and inflexible, but overall I'd like to see much more of his type and much less of, say, Eric Cantor's type.

[calicoug]

I don't want to believe that the Republican party doesn't care about ideas, because it makes me feel like an extremist. I've never been a democrat, and even so have softened a lot on how I view politics, but still can't bring myself to even consider most of the absolute morons the Republicans present to the electorate. How can anyone be expected to vote for people who are so clearly antagonistic to reality? When will things that actually matter start being considered in candidates? I'm convinced that the only reason the Republican party still exists is the broken system that virtually eliminates the possibility of a viable third party.

I used to think the rise of a legitimate third party would be impossible in the US given power structures and incentives, but the Republican party is creating the formula for it to happen. It's amazing that after invoking the name of Reagan at every possible opportunity for the past 20 years Republicans have somehow created a party which looks nothing like Reagan's party and which would never permit the election of a Ronald Reagan today.

[RobinFinderson]

So, what will it mean if Ron Paul wins in Iowa? What if he comes in a squeaky close second? People are still talking about Newt et al.'s prospects even though they are fighting for third place... so why not some serious props to Paul? Hell, I'd buy a ticket for that roller coaster.

[oxcoug]

So, what will it mean if Ron Paul wins in Iowa? What if he comes in a squeaky close second? People are still talking about Newt et al.'s prospects even though they are fighting for third place... so why not some serious props to Paul? Hell, I'd buy a ticket for that roller coaster.

Paul is unelectable in a general election and too far out of the Republican mainstream to sustain through the full primary.

But I think you already know that.

[All-American]

Intrade hates Ron Paul.

https://www.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=669534&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

He was at $.50 today and lost almost 40% of even that paltry value.

[Viking]

Intrade hates Ron Paul.

https://www.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=669534&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

He was at $.50 today and lost almost 40% of even that paltry value.

This warms my heart:

https://www.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=652757&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

[Viking]

Intrade hates Ron Paul.

https://www.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=669534&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

He was at $.50 today and lost almost 40% of even that paltry value.

The problem with shorting Paul (not that you're suggesting it) is that his probability value is so low, even a move to 7% chance meets you're out your money and posting margin.

[Uncle Ted]

Paul is unelectable in a general election and too far out of the Republican mainstream to sustain through the full primary.

But I think you already know that.

According to the average of the polls Romney is unelectable in a general election as well and only the imaginary republican can beat Obama. It is interesting that Paul beats all the republicans except for Romney.

[calicoug]

Intrade hates Ron Paul.

https://www.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=669534&tradeURL=http://server16.kproxy.com/servlet/redirect.srv/sruj/shhzdcy/s61jxpmap/p1/servlet/redirect.srv/sruj/snnldgbx/snop/p2/

He was at $.50 today and lost almost 40% of even that paltry value.

This is, I suspect, due to the skyrocketing poll numbers of Santorum who may be emerging as the favorite in Iowa (despite the fact that he has zero campaign infrastructure in any other state).

Conservatives REALLY do not want Romney to win. It's no coincidence that the only other candidate to not be suddenly vaulted into first place is... the other Mormon.

[All-American]

A CNN survey of Republican Party "insiders" says Romney will win:

http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/02/politi...html?hpt=hp_t2

Intrade's prediction on Romney winning Iowa has gone up about 13% today.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749792

[Viking]

This is, I suspect, due to the skyrocketing poll numbers of Santorum who may be emerging as the favorite in Iowa (despite the fact that he has zero campaign infrastructure in any other state).

Conservatives REALLY do not want Romney to win. It's no coincidence that the only other candidate to not be suddenly vaulted into first place is... the other Mormon.

I think this is an overplayed argument. No doubt, the religious extreme don't like Romney. But the rise of a second, more conservative candidate at various junctures implies an ideologically bifurcated party, to a certain extent, more than extreme hatred of Mormons.