The Energy Thread

[Uncle Ted]

It is nervous indeed. We just opened escrow in a place on Tuesday. Smart time right now? Who knows...but I am going to start working on my Master of Arts in Teaching...because I'm tired of this bullshit.

Hey, be sure to learn everything you can about tele-teaching and distance learning. That might quickly become the new norm.

"Ready Player One" might be a good movie to watch or book to read while you are stuck at home.

[Uncle Ted]

CV19 and the price war has put me in a precarious position. I’m the last lawyer my company hired. First one out? They’re slashing costs and I’m in the midst of a relocation, where they cover moving costs, temporary housing, and closing costs. So much could happen between now and the time I’m supposed to close on my new house.

And yet, I have a weird sense of calm. If I’m canned, I have savings. I am actually sort of excited at the prospect of going into something other than oil and gas.

Man, I am really sorry to hear this, GM. I have a lot of friends (including you on here) in the oil business. I am worried about Moli too. It really sucks that the Russians and Saudis decided to get into a pissing match in the middle of a global pandemic. I really hope that OPEC+ can just get their sh*t together.

I really hope for the best for you and your family.

[The_Tick]

Best wishes, GM. That is rough.

It is nervous indeed. We just opened escrow in a place on Tuesday. Smart time right now? Who knows...but I am going to start working on my Master of Arts in Teaching...because I'm tired of this bullshit.

[Jeff Lebowski]

CV19 and the price war has put me in a precarious position. I’m the last lawyer my company hired. First one out? They’re slashing costs and I’m in the midst of a relocation, where they cover moving costs, temporary housing, and closing costs. So much could happen between now and the time I’m supposed to close on my new house.

And yet, I have a weird sense of calm. If I’m canned, I have savings. I am actually sort of excited at the prospect of going into something other than oil and gas.

Best wishes, GM. That is rough.

[Green Monstah]

CV19 and the price war has put me in a precarious position. I’m the last lawyer my company hired. First one out? They’re slashing costs and I’m in the midst of a relocation, where they cover moving costs, temporary housing, and closing costs. So much could happen between now and the time I’m supposed to close on my new house.

And yet, I have a weird sense of calm. If I’m canned, I have savings. I am actually sort of excited at the prospect of going into something other than oil and gas.

[Moliere]

$20.37 today

[Color Me Badd Fan]

The average price per barrel since 1980 adjusted for inflation is $57, $21 a barrel is an astonishing number.

[Moliere]

How low did oil go in the 2008 crisis? Did it hit $20 a barrel?

Sorry guys. This sucks for you guys in the field. My brothers are all in the field.

$30.28 on Dec 23, 2008

It got to $26.19 in 2016

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RWTCD.htm

[beefytee]

How low did oil go in the 2008 crisis? Did it hit $20 a barrel?

Sorry guys. This sucks for you guys in the field. My brothers are all in the field.

[Uncle Ted]

I'm super glad you're entertained. For a large % of americans, low oil prices are not a bad thing, so in that sense I'm happy for the rest of you. But for folks in my community and industry, I hope Putin loses this game of chicken swiftly.

Yeah, I have a lot of friends in the oil business and they all seem very uptight right now. Russia's costs for getting oil out of the ground is somewhere around $40/barrel so one would think they would lose at this game a lot faster than Saudi Arabia. I have always been under the impression that they can pump oil out of the ground from something like $10/barrel. But apparently they depend on oil a lot more:

Saudi Arabia meanwhile, may be in the weakest position. It is the world’s lowest-cost producer, with extraction costs around $3 a barrel, meaning it can generate profits in a down market better than anyone else. The kingdom also relies, however, on oil revenues more than Russia and the United States, and it needs a Brent price of $83 a barrel to balance its budget, according to the International Monetary Fund.
[...]
What comes next depends on how far Saudi Arabia decides to up production. Unlike Russia, which has limited spare capacity, the Saudis could quickly push oil production to 12 million barrels a day in a bid to expand their market share and force Moscow back to the negotiating table.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/daneber.../#246520325676

And it seems like that is what they are doing and more. Hopefully Russia will back down here soon. I think they are BS'ing that they can pay this game for 5+ years.

I don't know if I believe that Saudi Arabia needs $83/barrel to balance their budget... It seems their national debt would be much higher than it is. It has been years since we have seen oil that high.

[Green Monstah]

In my game theory classes Saudi Arabia was always the big king of OPEC with the most to lose and the most willing to take it on the chin to preserve the cartel. If a small member needed to pump out extra oil in defiance of their quota, it was Saudi Arabia that always cut their production to match the overselling of oil by the rogue member. For years. Until Putin. Putin thought he could bully OPEC the way he has bullied everyone from Olympic committee members to Ukraine to Robert Kraft. I am shocked that The Kingdom decided to take on Putin, but I love watching the ruble fall from 65 to 75 roubles per dollar— probably with more sliding tomorrow.

I'm super glad you're entertained. For a large % of americans, low oil prices are not a bad thing, so in that sense I'm happy for the rest of you. But for folks in my community and industry, I hope Putin loses this game of chicken swiftly.

[Katy Lied]

In my game theory classes Saudi Arabia was always the big king of OPEC with the most to lose and the most willing to take it on the chin to preserve the cartel. If a small member needed to pump out extra oil in defiance of their quota, it was Saudi Arabia that always cut their production to match the overselling of oil by the rogue member. For years. Until Putin. Putin thought he could bully OPEC the way he has bullied everyone from Olympic committee members to Ukraine to Robert Kraft. I am shocked that The Kingdom decided to take on Putin, but I love watching the ruble fall from 65 to 75 roubles per dollar— probably with more sliding tomorrow.

[wapiti]

Is it just the price war between Russia and the Saudis? Or is the bigger factor excess capacity combined with a slowdown due to Corona? Are the companies' stock prices going to be depressed for the long term? Why did some fall so much more than others? Exxon is down around 12% but Occidental cratered.

From what I've read its the combination of the price war and the recession. Just speculating but I think Exxon has a lot stronger balance sheet than Occidental. If oil drops below $20 I'm not sure how long a company like Occidental can stay in business.

What I think Russia and the Saudis fail to understand is if they do put US oil producers out of business, their assets will end up with a company like Exxon. When the price of oil gets high enough, that production won't take long to come back on line.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Is it just the price war between Russia and the Saudis? Or is the bigger factor excess capacity combined with a slowdown due to Corona? Are the companies' stock prices going to be depressed for the long term? Why did some fall so much more than others? Exxon is down around 12% but Occidental cratered.

[Sullyute]

My company's stock is down 50% today, and it was already depressed over the last four weeks. Ugh...

Same thing is happening to Occidental. Dividend yield is 25%!