Official Romney for President Exploratory Committee Thread

[Color Me Badd Fan]

If the employment numbers don't come down, maybe he can point to "the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow:"

[YOUTUBE]kbbIQFcEhcQ[/YOUTUBE]

That moment needs to be pretty soon in order to distract attention from the economy.

There was an article somewhere, perhaps the WaPo, about some GOP hopefuls staying out of the fray because they think Obama's war chest is going to be enormous. Only Romney and his organization and fund-raising prowess will be able to effectively match up with him in this regard.

If the field remains the same, then I think Romney will end up being the guy though I do think that Huntsman has a chance. The ABC poll putting Romney ahead of Obama is certainly a shot of encouragement to both Romney's campaign and his donors.

[Clark Addison]

It will most likely come down to unemployment...

I think you are likely correct, and this is bad news for Obama. Even if the economy starts improving at a decent pace, unemployment will not start getting better until the end of the year or so, and I don't think there is any possible scenario in which the unemployment rate is "low" by next November. He may be able to get by if it has moved from around 9% at the beginning of 2012 to around 7% by November.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I think you are likely correct, and this is bad news for Obama. Even if the economy starts improving at a decent pace, unemployment will not start getting better until the end of the year or so, and I don't think there is any possible scenario in which the unemployment rate is "low" by next November. He may be able to get by if it has moved from around 9% at the beginning of 2012 to around 7% by November.

7% is the best case scenario. In fact, if it's at 7% in November 2012 there will be a sense of momentum and Obama will likely be reelected. I think I said a year ago that the magic number was 7.5%.

[Uncle Ted]

I think you are likely correct, and this is bad news for Obama. Even if the economy starts improving at a decent pace, unemployment will not start getting better until the end of the year or so, and I don't think there is any possible scenario in which the unemployment rate is "low" by next November. He may be able to get by if it has moved from around 9% at the beginning of 2012 to around 7% by November.

Yes, as the article pointed out "Ronald Reagan won, despite 7.2 percent unemployment in November 1984, because the rate was falling and voters decided he was fixing the problem." If the employment numbers start moving consistently in the right direction by Nov 2012 then he could get reelected. Some may say this could happen given the federal extension of unemployment compensation expires January 3, 2012 which may motivate some people to seriously start looking for a job. But that may not really be the case:

Economists have long known that unemployment benefits induce some people to pass up available jobs. But how many people? In April, Rob Valletta and Katherine Kuang, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, used a simple but clever technique to answer the question. They looked at whether the duration of unemployment was longer for people who lost their jobs (and thus were probably collecting unemployment insurance) than for people who voluntarily left their jobs or were new entrants to the labor force (and were less likely to be receiving benefits). They found only a small difference, implying by their calculation that the extension of benefits added about 0.4 percentage point to the jobless rate in late 2009. At the request of Bloomberg Businessweek they did an update through November 2010 that yielded a new estimate of 0.8 percentage point. "I can't make a strong case for which is correct," Valletta wrote in an e-mail.

[Jacob]

I thought Mitt didn't have a great couple of weeks. He gave his speech defending Romneycare, which seemed to be universally panned by most conservative journalists, while liberal commentators agreed with the conservatives, that Mitt is the founder of Obamacare and his defense only reinforced that.

Then he announced his candidacy, and the media seemed to focus on the fact that Palin was apparently in NH at the same time and stole some of Mitt's thunder.

Then he says he favors ethanol subsidies and thinks we should do something about global warming. He is again attacked by elite and grassroots/purist conservative commentators alike.

Now he's beating Obama among registered voters? Not a bad couple of weeks after all. Polls like this will only help him. I say there is no way Huntsman can compete with MItt, absent a huge Mitt screwup, which isn't coming. There are no skeletons in Mitt's closet.

I still have my reservations about him, but I think his chances of winning are pretty good.

[oxcoug]

Dammmmn. It seems Mitt is taking the shock and awe approach to raising money this time around.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...YhKH_blog.html


Romney also has two major donors previously committed to Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and his un-pursued campaign — attorneys Dan Dumezich and Bob Grand — as well as two people who had planned to back Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour’s presidential campaign: Austin Barbour, the nephew of the governor, and Bobbie Kilberg, the president of the Northern Virginia Technology Council and the 1993 lieutenant governor nominee in Virginia.

Lew Eisenberg, a major GOP money man who served as the co-chairman of the 2008 Republican National Convention, is also on board with Romney, as is Texas homebuilder Bob Perry, who has used his wealth to fund a number of conservative-aligned groups including Swift Boat Veterans for Truth in the 2004 election.

Perhaps most interestingly, Skybridge Capital managing partner Anthony Scarramucci, a former Obama donor, has signed on with Romney. (Scarramucci was a law school classmate of Obama but engaged in a high profile back-and-forth with the president in a town hall meeting last fall.)

[Viking]

As much as this pains me to say, unless huntsman can mount a huge underdog victory, I'm on the Romney train. He's a difficult person but he's also a great turnaround artist and I love my country too much to not want a guy like that in charge. Obama is such a disappointment to this left-leaning family...

Romney's love is like bad medicine and bad medicine is what America needs

[oxcoug]

As much as this pains me to say, unless huntsman can mount a huge underdog victory, I'm on the Romney train. He's a difficult person but he's also a great turnaround artist and I love my country too much to not want a guy like that in charge. Obama is such a disappointment to this left-leaning family...

Romney's love is like bad medicine and bad medicine is what America needs

I hear ya - and if Huntsman does pull of the upset I'll swallow my misgivings and get on board with that.

Obama just isn't getting it and his team is weakening.

[BigFatMeanie]

As much as this pains me to say, unless huntsman can mount a huge underdog victory, I'm on the Romney train. He's a difficult person but he's also a great turnaround artist and I love my country too much to not want a guy like that in charge. Obama is such a disappointment to this left-leaning family...

Romney's love is like bad medicine and bad medicine is what America needs

[YOUTUBE]eOUtsybozjg[/YOUTUBE]

[RobinFinderson]

As much as this pains me to say, unless huntsman can mount a huge underdog victory, I'm on the Romney train. He's a difficult person but he's also a great turnaround artist and I love my country too much to not want a guy like that in charge. Obama is such a disappointment to this left-leaning family...

Romney's love is like bad medicine and bad medicine is what America needs

I would love to see someone make the case for why Romney won't just be a shill for the US Chamber of Commerce.

[oxcoug]

[YOUTUBE]eOUtsybozjg[/YOUTUBE]

I always thought that song was by Poison. Or Tesla. I'm disappointed in myself.

[Viking]

I would love to see someone make the case for why Romney won't just be a shill for the US Chamber of Commerce.

Why is that so bad? Good god, move to venezuela

[Jacob]

I would love to see someone make the case for why Romney won't just be a shill for the US Chamber of Commerce.

I'll make that case, if you first make the case for why Romney will just be a shill for the US Chamber of Commerce. Why are you making that assumption?

[byu71]

Why is that so bad? Good god, move to venezuela

That is what I was thinking. What is so bad about the Chamber of Commerce? I guess if you hate capitalism, they're bad.

[wuapinmon]

Why is that so bad? Good god, move to venezuela

Robin´s Bolivarian Bohemian Revolution cannot be contained!