Protests in Egypt, pending doom of Mubarak

[Maximus]

Yea, they dont count specifically, but knowing how big a certain place is and knowing how many would fit there, etc. I am sure thee is some way of estimating.

Anyways, Mubarak said he will stay only until the elections. Everyone is dumbfounded...wondering why he would possibly think that is going to ease the protestors at all.

[byu71]

Yea, they dont count specifically, but knowing how big a certain place is and knowing how many would fit there, etc. I am sure thee is some way of estimating.

Anyways, Mubarak said he will stay only until the elections. Everyone is dumbfounded...wondering why he would possibly think that is going to ease the protestors at all.

Don't yo think it has eased the feeling of at least some of the protestors. I know I feel a lot better now.

[LA Ute]

Fascinating blog post here, publishing a long e-mail from an Egyptian student who is in Egypt and in the middle of things. Excerpt:

The internet was cut off in Egypt. Mobile phone companies were ordered to suspend services. With tools of communication disrupted the regime was hopeful that they had things under control. Simultaneously they started standard arrests of Muslim Brotherhood leaders. Things seemed for them under control. But they weren't. With every stupid panicking move by the regime, the narrative of its weakness was only reinforced for the people. People saw a regime that was scarred of the internet and they rightfully calculated that this was their golden opportunity.

Friday was an unprecedented event in Egypt. While it is impossible to guess the number of protestors on the streets that day, it is safe to say that they exceeded one million. Every Mosque was a launching site for a demonstration. The Islamists were out in full force. The slogans that day were quite different than the previous ones. Islamic slogans and activists were clearly visible. The security forces were faced with wave after wave of protestors that came from every street. In 4 hours, the security forces were collapsing.

Whether Mubarak was fully previously told about the deteriorating situation for the previous days or whether it was at this moment that he suddenly realized the gravity of the situation remains unknown. One thing is sure; the regime was not prepared for this. It is at this moment that the decision was taken to call in the army, announce a curfew, and withdraw the security forces. In reality the army did not deploy immediately. The troops and tanks that appeared in the streets were the Presidential Guard units deployed in Cairo.

The army was actually still far away from deploying in Cairo. Because no one had imagined that the situation would totally be out of control, the level of alert of the army was never raised. Officers were not called from their vacations and the whole top command of the Egyptian army was actually thousands of miles away in Washington for strategic prearranged discussions at the Pentagon. Moreover, the plan of deployment of the army never imagined a scenario where people would defy it. No one imagined that the army would be required to put a tank in every street. They thought that the mere mention of the army being called in, the sight of a few tanks, and the announcement of the curfew, would make people immediately go home scared. People did not.

The Egyptian army is hugely popular. This is due to the established mythology of Egyptian politics. The army, which is in all aspects the regime, is seen as separate by the people. The army is viewed as clean (not like the corrupt government), efficient (they do build bridges fast), and more importantly the heroes that defeated Israel in 1973 (it is no use to debate that point with an Egyptian). With the troops and tanks appearing in the streets, people actually thought the army was on their side, whatever that might mean. With an announced Presidential addressed that kept being delayed; Egyptians prepared themselves for an announcement of Mubarak's resignation.

The whole thing is here:

The Story of the Egyptian Revolution

[il Padrino Ute]

According to some reports there were 5 million + throughout egypt. All public transportation was shut down along with the internet, so great turnout.

My understanding is that CBS has reported that the number of protesters is 11.

[myboynoah]

Interesting article on the view from Israel.

As fast as this has turned, I think this makes territorial concessions from Israel very unlikely. I don't know when the country could ever be convinced to give up its buffer zones.

Israel wary of transition in Egypt, concerned about regional stability

Mubarak, at 82, likely had only a few years left in office, regardless of the mood of the Egyptian people. But Israeli officials said what unnerved them is how fast the landscape changed - and how quickly, in their view, the United States and other allied powers appeared to pull away from Mubarak after relying on him for so long.

"When some people in the West see what's happening in Egypt they see Europe 1989," said an Israeli official, who declined to be identified because he was not authorized to speak on the matter. He was referring to the revolutions in Eastern Europe that preceded the fall of the Soviet Union.

"We see it as Tehran 1979."

Israeli news channels played video from Tuesday's protests in Cairo's Tahrir Square of protesters kneeling in prayer and of others cheering "Allahu Akbar," or God is Great, while pretending to hang a puppet with a Jewish star on its chest.

[NorthwestUteFan]

You know. I haven't watched him sicne we moved into our house and didn't set his show to tivo.. My wife and I both commented that we are less stressed about our future which is nice..

So in other words. I couldn't tell ya old bastard....

When Glenn Beck was on CNN he used to BLAST Saudi Arabia for being terrorist backers, and for being the cradle of Wahabiism.

When he moved to Fox, any and all comment on Saudi Arabia ceased.

I am sure that Prince Alwaleed bin Talal being the #2 stockholder behind Rupert Murdoch has NOTHING to to with that change in focus...

Israel will not and should not give up their buffer zones. If things get out of control again you can guarantee they will bring the pain. Ironically our foreign aid support to Israel is likely the only string we have to restrain them. If we stopped giving them money they would most likely stop listening to us and take matters into their own hands. They really don't NEED any money from the US, and they may be better off without it, but the US needs to retain a bargaining chip.

[Moliere]

George W. Bush thought that democracy in Iraq would topple Middle-East/Maghreb dictators like dominoes. Instead, it took a kid with no future to light himself on fire in Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia. We have yet to see the protests spread to an oil-rich country, but it might just be a matter of time (I'm talking to you, Libya).

Is this satire? I honestly don't know as I'm not even at the level of novice when it comes to foreign relations. However, I will say that Iraq's democracy probably had more to do with these protests than some kid lighting himself on fire.

Solon is much smarter than me so I'm just going to assume that I missed the point.

[Maximus]

It looks like Mubarak has unleashed a bunch of thugs to attack protestors at tahrir square. Reporters, civilians, etc are getting beat up (anderson cooper tweeted that he got attacked.)


Said thugs are also throwing molotov cocktails at Egyptian museum and trying to blame it on the protestors.

[byu71]

It looks like Mubarak has unleashed a bunch of thugs to attack protestors at tahrir square. Reporters, civilians, etc are getting beat up (anderson cooper tweeted that he got attacked.)


Said thugs are also throwing molotov cocktails at Egyptian museum and trying to blame it on the protestors.

they will be quashed like bugs. 250,000 to 1 million protestors against the thugs. How many thugs could he unleash, 10,000? The thugs will run like boobs just like the police did.

[Solon]

Is this satire? I honestly don't know as I'm not even at the level of novice when it comes to foreign relations. However, I will say that Iraq's democracy probably had more to do with these protests than some kid lighting himself on fire.

Solon is much smarter than me so I'm just going to assume that I missed the point.

Not satire, but thanks for the compliment.

The plan, as I understood it, was for Iraq's democracy to spread throughout the region. Instead, it's setting records for ineffectiveness, political squabbling, and delay (e.g. it took 289 days after the elections to actually form a government).

The protests in Tunisia were started when, on Dec. 17, a young man without a job or hope for his future named Muhammad Bouazizi lit himself on fire in the main square of Sidi Bouzid, a town in Tunisia. Bouazizi died of his injuries.

[wuapinmon]

When Glenn Beck was on CNN he used to BLAST Saudi Arabia for being terrorist backers, and for being the cradle of Wahabiism.

When he moved to Fox, any and all comment on Saudi Arabia ceased.

I am sure that Prince Alwaleed bin Talal being the #2 stockholder behind Rupert Murdoch has NOTHING to to with that change in focus...

Israel will not and should not give up their buffer zones. If things get out of control again you can guarantee they will bring the pain. Ironically our foreign aid support to Israel is likely the only string we have to restrain them. If we stopped giving them money they would most likely stop listening to us and take matters into their own hands. They really don't NEED any money from the US, and they may be better off without it, but the US needs to retain a bargaining chip.

We need to end all aid to them, and make them treat the Palestinians like humans. I have no problems with the wall they built, but lets not act like what Israel is doing to Palestinians is anything other than a complete apartheid apparatus. The Palestinians started some wars that they lost, and some groups turned to terror, but the average Palestinian ca. 1900 lived in peace with the average Jew.

It's not like the average Palestinian today hates Hamas or Fatah; that has long since subsided largely due to the inhumane conditions imposed on them by IDF, and the average joe lacks the resources, communications infrastructure, and capital to organize a resistance or takeover from the thugs. Israel is creating a breeding ground for hate.

They're both immature and brutal cultures that view the other side (Lots and lots of my American Jewish students at Tulane referred to them as Paleostinians) as subhuman and interlopers of their land.

I don't want my son dying over their <redacting> sandbox.

[Moliere]

Not satire, but thanks for the compliment.

The plan, as I understood it, was for Iraq's democracy to spread throughout the region. Instead, it's setting records for ineffectiveness, political squabbling, and delay (e.g. it took 289 days after the elections to actually form a government).

The protests in Tunisia were started when, on Dec. 17, a young man without a job or hope for his future named Muhammad Bouazizi lit himself on fire in the main square of Sidi Bouzid, a town in Tunisia. Bouazizi died of his injuries.

Thanks for responding.

I just wonder how much fuel (Iraq's democracy) was placed on the fire prior to the guy striking the match.

The French revolution was sparked by the fall of the Bastille, however the fruits of that revolution were mostly planted by the American Revolution, although the ideals of the American government were heavily influenced by French thinkers (at least as far as I remember from my French history classes).

[creekster]

Not satire, but thanks for the compliment.

The plan, as I understood it, was for Iraq's democracy to spread throughout the region. Instead, it's setting records for ineffectiveness, political squabbling, and delay (e.g. it took 289 days after the elections to actually form a government).

The protests in Tunisia were started when, on Dec. 17, a young man without a job or hope for his future named Muhammad Bouazizi lit himself on fire in the main square of Sidi Bouzid, a town in Tunisia. Bouazizi died of his injuries.

While your conclusion has great rhetorical appeal and, in the long run, may end up being correct, it is premature at this time, IMO.

First, we have no idea what will replace Mubarak et al. It might be democracy, it might be something worse than is there now (worse for both US interests and for the local population).

Second, the government in Iraq, while less than a model of efficiency, is still a model. It is one thing to throw off a Mubarak, it is another to choose a form of governance to replace him. Having a model in Iraq that works, even in rudimentary form, provides a possibility in that region and among those cultures that simply didn't exist before.

While I am not sure the Iraq adventure was the right thing to do, I think reaching any conclusion on what it will offer in the long term is premature. As George Bush said when asked how history will judge the war "Who knows? By then we'll all be dead." I remain hopeful some lasting good will ensue from the lives lost there.

[dabrockster]

It looks like Mubarak has unleashed a bunch of thugs to attack protestors at tahrir square. Reporters, civilians, etc are getting beat up (anderson cooper tweeted that he got attacked.)


Said thugs are also throwing molotov cocktails at Egyptian museum and trying to blame it on the protestors.

I assume "your" interpreting them to be connected to Mubarak, not Anderson Cooper....

[Goatnapper'96]

The plan, as I understood it, was for Iraq's democracy to spread throughout the region. Instead, it's setting records for ineffectiveness, political squabbling, and delay (e.g. it took 289 days after the elections to actually form a government).

Is all of the above bad? What exactly is democracy supposed to be?

The next couple of years are going to be really interesting. President Obama is clearly no fan of Israel. However, the Arab regimes are far more abusive than Israel. We send Israel the most in foreign aid. The entire US model in that region is public expression of the virtue of democratic reform and then a large heaping of realpolitik. It will be interesting how President Obama deals with this. Israel is nervous that we no longer got their back and the brutal secular regimes surrounding them are falling to who knows what? Even democratic regimes that reflect the will of the people are not going to be favorable towards Israel.