Protests in Egypt, pending doom of Mubarak

[Maximus]

I have been following this as closely as I can, and things look like they are moving very fast. Mubarak has already appointed a vice president, something he has hesitated to do for over 20 years. This has not eased the protests at all, and calls for Mubarak's resignation are getting stronger.

I think we are witnissing something revolutionary in world history. While next week everything could just go back to normal, I think this could spark something in the Arab world. I also worry this could have some dire consequences for peace in the region if Islamists take control of Egypt, ala Iran. Hopefully not.

some interesting photos/videos:

[NorthwestUteFan]

This will absolutely have horrible repercussions across the Arab world. The Muslim Brotherhood, who are the players behind this revolution, are absolutely no friend of the West. They already control Yemen, and look at what a mess that has become.

The very fact that the ENTIRE revolt stops for prayer, then resumes after prayer is very telling.

Look at a map. If they control Yemen and have a strong presence in Somalia, and pick up Egypt, who then CONTROLS THE SUEZ CANAL? They already have a strong influence on access into the Red Sea. If oil shipments suddenly have to go around The Cape of Good Hope, how much will the price of oil increase? Are we ready for $10/gallon gas?

[woot]

I haven't been following this very much, but I've gathered that the current dictatorship has been propped up by the US, and that even though we all love democracy, if democracy comes to Egypt it is likely to put folks in power that wouldn't be friendly to the US.

Is that about right?

[I.J. Reilly]

This started in Tunisia a couple of weeks ago and could keep spreading. If it hits Saudia Arabia, look out.

If I were a fake president/dictator/king anywhere in the Arab world I would be stuffing my Swiss accounts right about now and making sure my exit play was airtight.

[Maximus]

This will absolutely have horrible repercussions across the Arab world. The Muslim Brotherhood, who are the players behind this revolution, are absolutely no friend of the West. They already control Yemen, and look at what a mess that has become.

The very fact that the ENTIRE revolt stops for prayer, then resumes after prayer is very telling.

Look at a map. If they control Yemen and have a strong presence in Somalia, and pick up Egypt, who then CONTROLS THE SUEZ CANAL? They already have a strong influence on access into the Red Sea. If oil shipments suddenly have to go around The Cape of Good Hope, how much will the price of oil increase? Are we ready for $10/gallon gas?

What evidence is there that the Muslim Brotherhood is behind the protests?

[PaloAltoCougar]

It says something about my current mental state that, in Maximus's second photo, I was expecting to see Jimmer somewhere in the middle.

To the subject at hand, I'm watching with interest how the U.S. handles this. Thus far, and Joe Biden aside, I think we're doing as well as we can, pushing Mubarak to institute reforms, as we have been doing for some time.

We certainly can't come down strong on his side, but we can't abandon him either, as he's been more pro-U.S. than pretty much any conceivable successor. But we can't just jump to the rebels' side either, as we'd be derided for being so late to the party. At least this way, when/if Mubarak falls, we can say, "Hey, we've been trying to get him to come around, but the guy just wouldn't listen. Congrats on the regime change. Let's talk."

But yes, this has the potential for being the start of much ugliness in the Middle East.

[Maximus]

FYI: The leader of the Muslim Brotherhood came onto Al Jazeera and greeted Arab-Israeli Christian ex-Knesset member Azmi Bishara and called for free democratic elections.

[NorthwestUteFan]

Most of the dictators throughout the past few centuries were voted in peacefully and legally.

The MB have never abandoned their goal - the restoration of a Pan-Arabian Caliphate based solely on Sharia law. They killed Sadat, Rafik Hariri, and Pierre Gemayel, in addition to many other pro-democracy leaders across the Arab world. They maintain extremely close ties with Hamas and by default PIJ and PFLP.

If Egypt falls, there will be no more 'Egyptian-brokered' peace treaties with Israel, for starters. In fact I am afraid Israel will strike first and may very well go nuclear in several directions.

[NorthwestUteFan]

The fact that the US was effectively silent during Iran's Green Revolution a few years ago is utterly terrifying to me. We could have helped the the people push for some TRUE democratic reforms. Instead we put our heads in the sand.

All the Iranians wanted was to regain some of the freedoms they lost to the MB-backed revolution in 1979(?).

If Egypt falls to a pseudo-democratic Sharia dictatorship, there is no way we will be able to pull out of Iraq or Afghanistan. We will likely still do it anyway.

[Maximus]

I asked a friend about the MB, he said the following:

The organization itself has evolved, it is not the radical organization of the 50s and 60s (a time when its radicalism was roughly on par with the radicalism of the secular rightist and leftist organizations of the day). It has a major stake in the status quo on one level with its vast business interests. It has been involved in the political game with members of Parliament elected as independents (in small numbers due to Mubarak crackdowns) and learned to speak to broader societal desires and beyond its own narrow interests. Egyptian and broader Arab society also don’t give these guys a blank check. A few decades now of Islamist experiments across the region have shown people that Islamists are both not a panacea and that they can be as repressive as the secular dictators, so popular forces are more than willing to tell them they’re not allowed to cross a certain line (this has been very visible in these protests where they were warned not to raise partisan or sectarian slogans that could screw things up, and the MB promised not to and have stayed good to their word, increasing the sense that this is a protest of all categories of Egyptians). Then there’s the fact that Egyptian society itself – like pretty much every Middle Eastern society – has a broad collection of entrenched powerful interests that each will fight for its piece of the pie and will not give the MB a free pass. Old NDP guards, secular leftists and marxists, labor organizations (very prominent and increasingly powerful in recent years), Coptic Christians, a judiciary that has fought for decades to try to get genuine independence, a relatively small but growing middle class, large business conglomerates, and many others. The MB don’t represent a majority of the population and I’d doubt they even represent a plurality, though they’ll certainly have reasonable success at the polls if they position themselves right. And finally, there are the internal splits in the Muslim Brotherhood between the older and younger generation in particular, with the younger generation really sharing many of the precise feelings of the youth protesters (indeed, they are among them) of aborted opportunities in life and willingness to express that in open ways as opposed to the more closed process of the old generation of MB leadership.

[RobinFinderson]

My younger brother, of the Collinsworth stabbing fame, also happens to be a ME Studies student at BYU. He is watching events closely and running a sideline commentary for the benefit of family. He was scheduled to do a semester abroad in Egypt pretty soon, but it is be reconfigured in Morroco, because of recent events. Here is his most recent report:

The protests are about unemployment, corruption, and
human rights violations.

Tunis is a secular state. Their Islamic party was banned a long time
ago, the leader thrown into exile, and some people are a little wary
of him coming back. Nevertheless, Ghannouchi, the party leader, runs
a very moderate Islamic party. He doesn't like the West because we
have a tendency to station troops in the Middle East (think
colonialism, Persian Gulf war, and Iraq now), but he did say a long
time ago that the closest thing to true Islam is the U.S.
Constitution. His party is big on womens' rights, and even permits
the sale of alcohol. Still, his anti-West platforms will likely have
him smeared up and down American news channels if his party gets power
(nobody knows if it will or not, there just isn't any feel for what
the Tunisians would go for).

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood said nothing about the revolts one way or
the other the first couple days. After that, they encouraged people
to participate but have made a strong pledge not to manipulate the
revolts to advance their agendas. Muslims and Christians are
protesting side by side. While the Muslim Brotherhood used to be a
radical Islamic group in the 50's and 60's, times have changed.
Still, the Muslim Brotherhood has a bad history, and many of its
members do not like the West either essentially for the same reasons
as Ghannouchi's party. They are guaranteed to get smeared on American
news channels.

Yemen's protesters, which now number over 10,000 in the streets, was
inspired by Tunisia. There is some fear that radical Muslims will try
to exploit the situation and take power. I can't imagine they will
get very far. It isn't a religious revolt, it is a revolt against a
dictator who has been in power 32 years. If the Islamic elements
can't give the people a democracy, they won't support them.

Jordan too had thousands in the streets today. The Muslim
Brotherhood's political wing in Jordan has actually done a lot to spur
on the protests. But like everywhere else, it is the impoverished
verses the wealthy politicians.

The king of Jordan has promised to clean up the government. Ben Ali
promised that in Tunisia just before he fled. Mubarak in Egypt made
the same promise earlier today. But it is out of his hands. Clearly
he thought he could let a little protesting happen and then people
would lose steam. He could then use it to promote his image as a
supporter of people's rights. It didn't happen. Many police, sick of
beating people up, are now joining the protesters. The military for
the most part is just standing there looking menacingly at the
protesters, but they didn't enforce the curfew that was announced
yesterday. If they side with the protesters, like the Tunisian army
did, Mubarak is finished. Within the next few days we'll find out
what their plans are. It seems Mubarak is still hoping the rioters
will cool off. 20+ people are dead, thousands injured, many police
stations throughout the country are up in smoke, but the protests are
still for the most part peaceful. All except for the heavily armed
Bedouins near Suez, who have apparently blown up a 4 story building.
91% of the internet is blocked, and cell phones are jammed, but
evidently protesters expected this and have planned accordingly. If
Mubarak flees the country, like his son already has, he's finished.
Al Baradi, a 2005 Nobel Peace Prize winner, currently under house
arrest, has a lot of support for president.

Unfortunately, we in the U.S. are not doing a very good job. Biden
stated that Mubarak is "not a dictator," and Hilary Clinton is still
giving tips on how the government can weather the storm. As it turns
out, there's a reason Ghannouchi and the Muslim Brotherhood aren't too
keen on U.S. policy.

[Guest]

I have nothing insightful to add, but it's been interesting to watch. Is this just more of the "end of history and the last man?"

[YOUTUBE]qjFs9CPGhts[/YOUTUBE]

[wuapinmon]

This started in Tunisia a couple of weeks ago and could keep spreading. If it hits Saudia Arabia, look out.

If I were a fake president/dictator/king anywhere in the Arab world I would be stuffing my Swiss accounts right about now and making sure my exit play was airtight.

It's like I hear Obiang's voice when you type.

[RobinFinderson]

There have been decent sized protests in support of the Egyptian people held outside the federal building here in Los Angeles.

[Uncle Ted]

Here is an interesting article (well, interesting to techno libertarians like myself anyway) about how the Egypt government "pulled the plug" on most all internet and cell phone communication in that country...

No one is completely certain what happened to the Egyptian internet, but it appears that the shutdown started off early in the week with the country blocking Twitter and Facebook access for those within its borders. Then, shortly after Thursday midnight local time, the country simply disappeared from the internet. With a few exceptions like the stock exchange, Egyptian websites and services were unreachable; the network traffic over Egyptian borders dropped by an astonishing 90 percent. Cell phone networks were also down. Today Vodafone confirmed that all mobile providers been "obliged" by the Egyptian government to shut off service to customers in that country.

How did it happen? Most likely, according to experts, the Egyptian authorities made a few phone calls to the country's handful of large internet service providers. Their request would have been simple: Make it impossible for Egyptians to communicate with other countries and each other using the internet. But carrying out this order isn't like hitting an off switch.

This article goes on to ask if the same thing could happen in America...

For now, as long as the president doesn't declare martial law, it would be. There are a number of laws that protect internet service providers government control. But that could change very soon. Several bills have been working their way through Congress that would give President Obama "kill switch" control over the internet during a "national cyber-emergency."

CNET's Declan McCullagh has been following the bills, first proposed by Senator Joe Lieberman and Senator Susan Collins. This week, he reported that the bill has been revised and is picking up steam.

[...]

Such a bill would allow the President to order shutdown of the American internet without any checks from the Judiciary.

This is something that worries digital liberties groups like the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Eva Galperin, an activist with the group who works on international issues, emphasized that Obama might be closer than we think to having a kill switch for the American internet. In a statement, she said:

What's going on in Egypt highlights the risk of granting any leader, up to and including the President of the United States, unilateral power to shut down portions of the internet. There have been a couple of bills in Congress which we read as potentially giving the President broad and vague powers to take emergency steps to protect the US in case of a "cyberemergency" declared by the president. Any such bill would have to be narrowly tailored for a specific threat, with review by congress and the courts.

All these legal niceties and predictions may not matter if the U.S. government perceives itself as under threat. As Galperin put it, "If the US government actually severs cables in order to cut off internet access in the US, then they have lost all regard for the rule of law and all bets are off."