American economic dominance

[Jeff Lebowski]

The US economic system is the strongest and most productive in the world and the gap between the US and everyone else is just growing larger. The term "Europoor" is becoming increasingly common.

US GDP per capita is currently at $94,400.
EU average is ~$59,000

Recently they polled folks in the UK to guess where their GPD/person ranked among US states. Average answer was #7. The correct answer is #51.

The Economist recently published an article about the gap:

Embedded Tweet

China used to be catching up rapidly, but they hit a peak. Most likely due to their population collapse. Also, China fakes a lot of their numbers.



Finally, check this out:



We are dominating partly due to our tech dominance. And we are killing everyone with our AI dominance (the second tech wave). More data centers please.

Progressives and young folks in the US often wish we were more like Europe. No thank you. God bless America and God bless capitalism and free markets.

[frank ryan]

I wish we had a better safety net. It's almost none of they get rid of social security.

Unfortunately this doesn't seem like the era of free markets but tariffs.

Many EU countries have a lot more satisfaction and happiness.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I wish we had a better safety net. It's almost none of they get rid of social security.

Unfortunately this doesn't seem like the era of free markets but tariffs.

Many EU countries have a lot more satisfaction and happiness.

Pick a team, Frank. Free markets and prosperity or the warmth of collectivism?

[frank ryan]

Pick a team, Frank. Free markets and prosperity or the warmth of collectivism?

I've said I support free trade going back years. A lot of those Europeans are big on free trade. Having a social safety hardly betrays that.

I don't agree with Bernie on protectionism nor do I agree with MAGA on it.

[Clark Addison]

USA! USA!

Re: the $10B market cap companies, China, despite the caveats you rightly call out, does a whole lot better than Europe in this area. I tried to replicate in ChatGPT and it gave 120 US companies and 82 Chinese ones (though at a lower confidence level).

Having said that, I am old enough that whenever I hear stories about China ruling the economic world within 20 years I think of Japan in the 80s. I don't think people under the age of 50 or so understood what a threat Japan was seen to be in the mid-80s to early 90s. They were taking over manufacturing, electronics, autos, and many other things. They were buying up huge amounts of American real estate. They did everything better than us. There were movies like Gung Ho (1986) showing this (and no accident that Nakatomi was the corporation in Die-Hard in 1992), Blade Runner's LA showed a huge amount of Japanese influence, and there were novels like Rising Sun (1992) along with non-fiction books literally predicting an upcoming war with Japan.

Anyway, that all looks a little silly these days. China is definitely not Japan, but they have a ton of challenges and a whole lot to prove before they can be the new #1. Someday the US will not be the preeminent superpower in the world, but I doubt very strongly that I will live to see that day, and a good chance that my kids will also not.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I've said I support free trade going back years. A lot of those Europeans are big on free trade. Having a social safety hardly betrays that.

I don't agree with Bernie on protectionism nor do I agree with MAGA on it.

Ha. You are all over the map here.

I get it, though. The cognitive dissonance must be rough.

[Jeff Lebowski]

USA! USA!

Re: the $10B market cap companies, China, despite the caveats you rightly call out, does a whole lot better than Europe in this area. I tried to replicate in ChatGPT and it gave 120 US companies and 82 Chinese ones (though at a lower confidence level).

Having said that, I am old enough that whenever I hear stories about China ruling the economic world within 20 years I think of Japan in the 80s. I don't think people under the age of 50 or so understood what a threat Japan was seen to be in the mid-80s to early 90s. They were taking over manufacturing, electronics, autos, and many other things. They were buying up huge amounts of American real estate. They did everything better than us. There were movies like Gung Ho (1986) showing this (and no accident that Nakatomi was the corporation in Die-Hard in 1992), Blade Runner's LA showed a huge amount of Japanese influence, and there were novels like Rising Sun (1992) along with non-fiction books literally predicting an upcoming war with Japan.

Anyway, that all looks a little silly these days. China is definitely not Japan, but they have a ton of challenges and a whole lot to prove before they can be the new #1. Someday the US will not be the preeminent superpower in the world, but I doubt very strongly that I will live to see that day, and a good chance that my kids will also not.

Yes, indeed. I remember reading Rising Sun by Michael Crichton. Good times.

Pretty funny in hindsight. Japan has been treading water for 30 years.

[Northwestcoug]

Having said that, I am old enough that whenever I hear stories about China ruling the economic world within 20 years I think of Japan in the 80s. I don't think people under the age of 50 or so understood what a threat Japan was seen to be in the mid-80s to early 90s. They were taking over manufacturing, electronics, autos, and many other things. They were buying up huge amounts of American real estate. They did everything better than us. There were movies like Gung Ho (1986) showing this (and no accident that Nakatomi was the corporation in Die-Hard in 1992), Blade Runner's LA showed a huge amount of Japanese influence, and there were novels like Rising Sun (1992) along with non-fiction books literally predicting an upcoming war with Japan.

It wasn't the Asians the US should be concerned about. It's German terrorists!

[tooblue]

LOL ... Jeff sounds like Sally Field at the Oscars: "Right now, you like me!"

Did a quick search on wether GDP is a good measure of economic health, and here is the AI summary:

"Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures a nation's total economic output but fails to reflect actual societal well-being. Its primary pitfalls include ignoring income inequality, hiding environmental degradation, excluding unpaid labor, treating natural disasters as economic boons, and failing to account for the true value of modern digital services."


GDP Is Not a Measure of Human Well-Being
https://hbr.org/2019/10/gdp-is-not-a...man-well-being

And then there is this:

Americans Are Leaving the U.S. in Record Numbers
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/american...ation-a5795bfa

[Jeff Lebowski]

Lol. A canadapoor has checked in.

[tooblue]

Lol. A canadapoor has checked in.

I am so poor, my bank account is a constant reminder that I am safe from identity theft.

I am so poor, that the ducks at the park throw bread at me.

...

[frank ryan]

Ha. You are all over the map here.

I get it, though. The cognitive dissonance must be rough.

Huh? Tell me how. What box don't I fit neatly into?

[All-American]

I highly recommend Peter Zeihan's "The Accidental Superpower" for a discussion on geopolitical factors that led to America's rise and dominance, and projections on what the future would hold. (He recently published a ten-years-later edition where he reviewed some of his predictions, which as you can imagine were a mixed bag-- including among other things a prediction that Alberta would secede from Canada and petition to join the Union-- but the discussion on why some of his projections have not panned out are also interesting.)

The TLDR summary: the US rose to power in no small part due to highly favorable geographic factors, including an unmatched overland waterway system into some of the most extensive and fertile farmland to be found anywhere in the world, two oceans separating it from rivals on the east or west and other factors preventing Canada or Mexico from posing any serious threats, access to energy, and demographic trends that will be challenging for everybody but which the US can navigate as well as if not better than anyone.

I hope he's right. But, there are any number of ways the US might just knock itself off track.

Immigration will play prominently in that discussion. One of the reasons the US is positioned to navigate the demographics trends better than most is that it is in the best position to attract and retain immigrant populations that will ease the reversal of the population bell curve. Immigration is no silver bullet, but it is a critical tool in the shed. If the country used a smart immigration policy that both attracted international talent and filled out a base of workers to support an increasing retiree population, it would do much to help us weather the storm. Instead, we are actively discouraging immigration-- even the channels where we could select the best and brightest.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Immigration will play prominently in that discussion. One of the reasons the US is positioned to navigate the demographics trends better than most is that it is in the best position to attract and retain immigrant populations that will ease the reversal of the population bell curve. Immigration is no silver bullet, but it is a critical tool in the shed. If the country used a smart immigration policy that both attracted international talent and filled out a base of workers to support an increasing retiree population, it would do much to help us weather the storm. Instead, we are actively discouraging immigration-- even the channels where we could select the best and brightest.

100% agree. The Trump administration cannot end quickly enough.

[Northwestcoug]

I highly recommend Peter Zeihan's "The Accidental Superpower" for a discussion on geopolitical factors that led to America's rise and dominance, and projections on what the future would hold. (He recently published a ten-years-later edition where he reviewed some of his predictions, which as you can imagine were a mixed bag-- including among other things a prediction that Alberta would secede from Canada and petition to join the Union-- but the discussion on why some of his projections have not panned out are also interesting.)

The TLDR summary: the US rose to power in no small part due to highly favorable geographic factors, including an unmatched overland waterway system into some of the most extensive and fertile farmland to be found anywhere in the world, two oceans separating it from rivals on the east or west and other factors preventing Canada or Mexico from posing any serious threats, access to energy, and demographic trends that will be challenging for everybody but which the US can navigate as well as if not better than anyone.

I hope he's right. But, there are any number of ways the US might just knock itself off track.

Immigration will play prominently in that discussion. One of the reasons the US is positioned to navigate the demographics trends better than most is that it is in the best position to attract and retain immigrant populations that will ease the reversal of the population bell curve. Immigration is no silver bullet, but it is a critical tool in the shed. If the country used a smart immigration policy that both attracted international talent and filled out a base of workers to support an increasing retiree population, it would do much to help us weather the storm. Instead, we are actively discouraging immigration-- even the channels where we could select the best and brightest.

Even though all various super and less superpowers might have more favorable economic indicators for the future, it just seems like the US has so many favorable conditions for it to cede it's #1 GDP status any time soon. And if the US starts declining, all of the other countries are in the same boat so to speak. Things could get bleak for the US but it will likely be relatively better than most others.

It will be interesting to watch if the MAGA mentality alters the immigration future. There are plenty of research opportunities in the world, and the smart countries would be wise to cater to immigrants that normally would look first to the US. It would take something catastrophic to alter the US's world position in research opportunities, but the beta countries should start updating their immigration plans immediately. There will be a significant proportion of researchers who will be willing to work elsewhere to not worry about immigration hassles.

It will be an interesting future no doubt. Here's hoping that the ~30% pay cut I took to extricate myself from the US economic powerhouse won't get any bigger!