Official Korean conflict thread

[happyone]

I have to wonder if the American troops in South Korea actually really protect North Korea more. South Korea's GDP is like 30 times more than North Korea's. Given that economic advantage North Korea would be crazy to mess with South Korea even if the US military didn't have a presence there. Of course, their leader is crazy.


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My brother was stationed there in the early 90's as a Intel type. His condsidered opinion was that we were there more to keep the South from going north that to keep the North from coming south.

Of course this might have changed in the last 20 yrs

[Goatnapper'96]

There's very little that can be said to make me feel comfortable about being only 600 miles from Korea right now.

It is a US initiated conspiracy with the goal to make sure our Jarheads have continued access to Geishas.

I am thinking you are not the only one in Japan who suddenly got a little nervous that the world still has bad guys.

[Goatnapper'96]

My brother was stationed there in the early 90's as a Intel type. His condsidered opinion was that we were there more to keep the South from going north that to keep the North from coming south.

Of course this might have changed in the last 20 yrs

Our experience in Iraq has taught us the legitimate capabilities of all those antiquated Soviet import tanks and artillery pieces. When I was in the North had amassed thousands of T-52's, T-55?s - I can't recall but suffice it to say it was old shit then, on the border. That was more than 10 years ago, that crap has gotten even more dilipadated. I wonder how much genuine damage that crappy and old conventional aresenal could do to Seoul.

[SeattleUte]

Our experience in Iraq has taught us the legitimate capabilities of all those antiquated Soviet import tanks and artillery pieces. When I was in the North had amassed thousands of T-52's, T-55?s - I can't recall but suffice it to say it was old shit then, on the border. That was more than 10 years ago, that crap has gotten even more dilipadated. I wonder how much genuine damage that crappy and old conventional aresenal could do to Seoul.

I can't help thinking that maybe someone needs to take a weekend and go in and mop that place up and let SK annex NK. Then put that dictator and his son and their henchmen on trial, if they're still alive. I wonder if there's a popular will for insurgency in North Korea like in the Middle East; I don't see it.

[Goatnapper'96]

I can't help thinking that maybe someone needs to take a weekend and go in and mop that place up and let SK annex NK. Then put that dictator and his son and their henchmen on trial, if they're still alive. I wonder if there's a popular will for insurgency in North Korea like in the Middle East; I don't see it.

The only reason we don't let the South do that has got to be fear of China getting involved. What does NK do for China? If the South took the North over China could sell more goods in Pee-yong-yang. Obviously China itself has moved away from Mao Tse Tung era communisitic ideology and seen the benefits. I don't understand why China wants the status quo other than having to deal with the short bitter dictator's sword rattling keeps the US preoccupied with something other than the growing Chinese Navy.

[SeattleUte]

The only reason we don't let the South do that has got to be fear of China getting involved. What does NK do for China? If the South took the North over China could sell more goods in Pee-yong-yang. Obviously China itself has moved away from Mao Tse Tung era communisitic ideology and seen the benefits. I don't understand why China wants the status quo other than having to deal with the short bitter dictator's sword rattling keeps the US preoccupied with something other than the growing Chinese Navy.

Now that NK and SK don't trade anymore and the rest of the free world has cut off NK, NK will essentially be a China puppet state. 80% of NK's trade was with SK and China. So now I guess NK will trade 100% with China. But I heard a good report on NPR that said that NK can't fully replace SK wiht China or anyone else. No one is so proximate and easily and natural and interestedd a trading partner of NK as SK. China has bigger fish to fry. Not sure how this plays out vis-a-vis China's position re NK, unless NK becomes Cuba--irrelevant. It's mainly my animal self saying let's go in with SK and liquidate them.

[Moliere]

If they did, I would tell them our debt to them is null and void.

I have no idea if this is even legal to do. Can we just cancel certain tranches of US debt instead of defaulting on them as they come due? Who governs this type of thing? In the US, obviously the law dictates this but on an international realm I have no idea how it works.

I also don't know if country debt has the same provisions that you see in a lot of corporate debt, which are accelerated maturity provisions. Basically this means that if you default on some debt (usually a minimum threshold) then the rest of your debt can immediately become due (basically a put option held by the creditor in case of a default of any debt). This is why defaulting on a small bond payment can have devastating effects on a company. The question is if we default on China's debt can other debt holders then put their debt to us? Probably not but I have no idea.

I do know if we were to cancel that debt it would have an effect on our interest rates. Basically you are telling the market that if we don't like you we will cancel your debt so that type of credit risk would then be built into the interest rates of future debt issuances.

This whole thing with NK and China is complicated just from a financial standpoint. Hopefully Obama has some tricks up his sleave if something really big happens.

[beefytee]

My guess is that more than anything China wants stability in the region.

I don't think they would mind too much if NK just went away.

I assume they aren't thrilled at the prospect of an armed conflict though and the uncertainty of that.

[Indy Coug]

I have no idea if this is even legal to do. Can we just cancel certain tranches of US debt instead of defaulting on them as they come due? Who governs this type of thing? In the US, obviously the law dictates this but on an international realm I have no idea how it works.

I also don't know if country debt has the same provisions that you see in a lot of corporate debt, which are accelerated maturity provisions. Basically this means that if you default on some debt (usually a minimum threshold) then the rest of your debt can immediately become due (basically a put option held by the creditor in case of a default of any debt). This is why defaulting on a small bond payment can have devastating effects on a company. The question is if we default on China's debt can other debt holders then put their debt to us? Probably not but I have no idea.

I do know if we were to cancel that debt it would have an effect on our interest rates. Basically you are telling the market that if we don't like you we will cancel your debt so that type of credit risk would then be built into the interest rates of future debt issuances.

This whole thing with NK and China is complicated just from a financial standpoint. Hopefully Obama has some tricks up his sleave if something really big happens.

+100

[happyone]

Our experience in Iraq has taught us the legitimate capabilities of all those antiquated Soviet import tanks and artillery pieces. When I was in the North had amassed thousands of T-52's, T-55?s - I can't recall but suffice it to say it was old shit then, on the border. That was more than 10 years ago, that crap has gotten even more dilipadated. I wonder how much genuine damage that crappy and old conventional aresenal could do to Seoul.

Good point, but Seoul is only what 30 miles from the DMZ. 1.2 million people takes a whole lot of munitions to slow down

Of course the ROK army is whole lot better prepared, and just plain better, than it was in June 1950, so maybe it could slow them down enough to make this a Gulf War I in Asia

[Jeff Lebowski]

I have to wonder if the American troops in South Korea actually really protect North Korea more. South Korea's GDP is like 30 times more than North Korea's. Given that economic advantage North Korea would be crazy to mess with South Korea even if the US military didn't have a presence there. Of course, their leader is crazy.

Why yes. Yes, he is.

[YOUTUBE]xh_9QhRzJEs[/YOUTUBE]

[Katy Lied]

If the US were to renege on our debt, the us dollar would immediately cease being the key currency for the world, and IMHO would be the slippery slope that could force us back to the gold standard.

As for North Korea, this kind of saber rattling is win-win for Kim Jong Il. Every decade or so, when the people start to foment rebellion over their terrible conditions, he could always bring round their support by making up straw man enemies. Someone is out to get North Korea. And they would all fall in line.

Now its not so easy to get the people to fall for his "us against the world" rhetoric, so he deliberately provokes SKorea. If he gets away with it, the people will overlook their desparate conditions because it seems as tho NKorea is moving up in the world power game. If SKorea retaliates, it will be more "they're picking on us" mentality again. Win-win.

[SeattleUte]

If the US were to renege on our debt, the us dollar would immediately cease being the key currency for the world, and IMHO would be the slippery slope that could force us back to the gold standard.

As for North Korea, this kind of saber rattling is win-win for Kim Jong Il. Every decade or so, when the people start to foment rebellion over their terrible conditions, he could always bring round their support by making up straw man enemies. Someone is out to get North Korea. And they would all fall in line.

Now its not so easy to get the people to fall for his "us against the world" rhetoric, so he deliberately provokes SKorea. If he gets away with it, the people will overlook their desparate conditions because it seems as tho NKorea is moving up in the world power game. If SKorea retaliates, it will be more "they're picking on us" mentality again. Win-win.

If we went and caved his head in would it still be a win win for him?

[byu71]

My apologies for suggesting if China invades Taiwan we should cancel our debt. What was I thinking. The dollar would fall in value. A far better tactic would be to just nuke them and threaten to nuke anyone else who said they were going to dump our bonds on the open market.

Of course these issues are complicated. What do you do if China invades Taiwan. I think we just say, well too bad. That might make Japan and South Korea a little nervous, but I am not so sure the rest of our allies shouldn't get a little nervous. I am tired of providing the defense umbrella for all these folks who have citizens on the streets demanding our departure.

Ok, good bye. Let's get the hell out of Japan and South Korea. Heck, while we are at it, let's get out of Germany.

[Indy Coug]

Ok, good bye. Let's get the hell out of Japan and South Korea. Heck, while we are at it, let's get out of Germany.

I think you are on the right track. Let's withdraw from the world, allow it to go completely to hell, sign a bunch of side agreements with Christ and then get all of the Millennial rebuilding contracts.