Originally posted by myboynoah
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Originally posted by Maximus
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1) Did he die in a hiking accident? Deaths have occurred on that trail but the bodies have always been recovered. In my view, the odds of an experienced hiker in his prime (he was a cross country runner in high school) somehow dying are very low and dying without recovery of the body are almost nonexistent - it would be a first. Besides, the Sneddon family have found evidence that David made it though the gorge. Rather than pursue that evidence, China worked to remove it.
2) Did David Sneddon get lost and perish in the wilderness? Doubtful. The trails are well worn and marked. Experienced hikers usually don't go off trail; especially in a foreign land. If David did somehow get lost, he had the skills to survive until he could be rescued. This isn't a 12-year lost boy in the mountains, it's a 23-year old Eagle Scout with backpacking experience and survival skills.
3) Was David Sneddon murdered? Violent crime is very low in that region of China; it is hospitable to tourists, especially Westerners. Also a violent murder tends to leave evidence and possible witnesses. National and local police have investigated a murder scenario as well as members of the Sneddon family who have traveled to the region multiple times and all have dismissed it.
4) Did he meet a local woman, fall in love, and they ran away together? That possibility was floated early. Until it was learned that David Sneddon is active LDS, a RM, and was planning on returning to BYU for his senior year. The Sneddon family, like many Mormon families, is a close one. There is no way he cuts off contact with his parents - he was emailing his mother several times a week during his Summer in China.
In my view, what is more probable is that he was detained by local police and questioned before being turned over to North Korean agents who would have been summoned. NK agents operate in that region of China. There are documented incidences of NK defectors/refuges being caught by NK agents in China with the assistance of local police. However, China officially does not admit its involvement for diplomatic reasons - they can't be seen as allies and collaborators with NK when it comes to human rights issues. It's possible that local police had no involvement with David Sneddon's disappearance and NK agents discovered David with their own network of spies that is in place to catch NK defectors. But if that is the case, why work to remove the evidence that David hiked through the gorge successfully and then trekked on to Shanghai La? The answer: Because Western tourists don't get murdered, elope, or otherwise go missing in that region. And when accidents do occur, bodies are recovered.
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