The Democrats have a pretty sizeable lead in the House and Senate. I'm skeptical of the GOP's chance to take control in either one. And I believe that Obama's reelection hopes will be substantially strengthened if the GOP takes control of Congress. No one believes that the GOP has anything more than an outside shot of taking either house of Congress this year, but the GOP will definitely build some serious momentum in the midterms. I don't see Obama together with a narrow Democratic majority in Congress changing much (as opposed to Clinton working with the GOP-majority Congress after 1994).
With that said, I make no specific numerical prediction regarding the House. I don't have the knowledge to break down the 435 races.
The Senate, however, is different. I predict that the GOP will hold all of its open seats and incumbents up for reelection. I think the GOP will pick up open seats and/or beat Democratic incumbents in the following states (ranked on my level of confidence):
1. South Dakota (Byron Dorgan is retiring)
2. Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln)
3. Nevada (Harry Reid)
4. Delaware (Beau Biden announced that he's not running and former GOP governor and current longtime congressman Mike Castle is running. This guy's already 70 years old and between Joe Biden and this guy, Delaware must love its political dinosaurs).
5. Colorado (Michael Bennett)
6. Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter)
SD and Arkansas are red states and Dorgan is retiring because he knows he has no shot at reelection. Blance Lincoln could probably get beat by Alan Keyes in Arkansas at this point. Nevada is "purple" state that leans GOP in most years and Harry Reid has been the Democratic point man in the Senate for what's perceived to be a liberal administration. Delaware just has an attractive candidate. Colorado is probably more red than Nevada, but Michael Bennett isn't as visible as Reid, still that will be another pickup in a good year for the GOP. If Specter gets out of the Democratic primary, then this spot will definitely go to the GOP, it's bad year for incumbents and Specter is the ultimate incumbent. My confidence level will go down if some other democrat beats Specter, but I still think this is a likely pickup for the GOP because Pat Toomey is leading both prospective Democratic nominees.
There are other seats out there that could turn into a surprise, but I wouldn't bet on it. The least surprising of the surprises would be Mark Kirk winning in Illinois. The second least surprsing would be the defeat of Barbara Boxer. She's been lucky to have batted 3 for 3 in being up for election/reelection in friendly years for Democrats in California (92, 98 and 04). But the distinction between California and Massachusetts is the number of independents. Independents in Massachusetts are somewhere around 40% of the electorate. In California, it's 20%. The other distinction is Boxer is a tough and dogged campaigner, she couldn't be any more different than Martha Coakley in this regard.
All in all, the GOP will pick up around 6 seats in the Senate to make it 53-47 for the Democrats. Maybe a few surprises do end up happening, but maybe the GOP loses one of its open seats (like Ohio).
With that said, I make no specific numerical prediction regarding the House. I don't have the knowledge to break down the 435 races.
The Senate, however, is different. I predict that the GOP will hold all of its open seats and incumbents up for reelection. I think the GOP will pick up open seats and/or beat Democratic incumbents in the following states (ranked on my level of confidence):
1. South Dakota (Byron Dorgan is retiring)
2. Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln)
3. Nevada (Harry Reid)
4. Delaware (Beau Biden announced that he's not running and former GOP governor and current longtime congressman Mike Castle is running. This guy's already 70 years old and between Joe Biden and this guy, Delaware must love its political dinosaurs).
5. Colorado (Michael Bennett)
6. Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter)
SD and Arkansas are red states and Dorgan is retiring because he knows he has no shot at reelection. Blance Lincoln could probably get beat by Alan Keyes in Arkansas at this point. Nevada is "purple" state that leans GOP in most years and Harry Reid has been the Democratic point man in the Senate for what's perceived to be a liberal administration. Delaware just has an attractive candidate. Colorado is probably more red than Nevada, but Michael Bennett isn't as visible as Reid, still that will be another pickup in a good year for the GOP. If Specter gets out of the Democratic primary, then this spot will definitely go to the GOP, it's bad year for incumbents and Specter is the ultimate incumbent. My confidence level will go down if some other democrat beats Specter, but I still think this is a likely pickup for the GOP because Pat Toomey is leading both prospective Democratic nominees.
There are other seats out there that could turn into a surprise, but I wouldn't bet on it. The least surprising of the surprises would be Mark Kirk winning in Illinois. The second least surprsing would be the defeat of Barbara Boxer. She's been lucky to have batted 3 for 3 in being up for election/reelection in friendly years for Democrats in California (92, 98 and 04). But the distinction between California and Massachusetts is the number of independents. Independents in Massachusetts are somewhere around 40% of the electorate. In California, it's 20%. The other distinction is Boxer is a tough and dogged campaigner, she couldn't be any more different than Martha Coakley in this regard.
All in all, the GOP will pick up around 6 seats in the Senate to make it 53-47 for the Democrats. Maybe a few surprises do end up happening, but maybe the GOP loses one of its open seats (like Ohio).
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