Conan O'Brien odd man out?

[TripletDaddy]

So the blogs today are saying Jay is talking about leaving NBC because of the way they've handled the whole deal. Is he being sincere? Or is he just trying to save face now that everyone in the comedy community thinks he's a total ass?

I doubt everyone in the comedy community is upset with Leno.

The failure of Jay's show is Jay's fault (although the format was probably doomed from the start).

The failure of Conan is the real story here. In less than one week, Conan accomplished something that Leno couldn't do in over a decade.....lose to Letterman. And Conan never recovered. He kept losing to Letterman. If Conan were beating Letterman nightly, Jay would be the odd man out. As it stands, Jay comes back to Tonight and everything goes back to normal.

I am glad Conan is leaving that time slot. He can do his funny faces and pull on his imaginary suspenders in some other time slot.

[MarkGrace]

I knew someone would catch me on my use of "everyone." I almost hedged, but still went for it. Oh well.

From what I've read on various blogs, Jay is taking a real beating from his contemporaries, and I think any member of a professional community values respect from his/her peers. That's what I was getting at. So I'm wondering if this "leave NBC" business is just a save face move.

[Commando]

The failure of Jay's show is Jay's fault

Really? It's the EXACT SAME SHOW, just an hour and 1/2 earlier in the day. You could say it's his fault for allowing his show to be aired so early, but this is NBC's screw up.

And how did Jay Leno fare his first 7 months? He didn't by chance lose to Arsenio Hall, did he?

[Color Me Badd Fan]

So is this more an issue the network had with Conan or Jay? At first I thought this was about Conan, but these articles seem to indicate that Jay's failing show has a big part in it.

The larger issue was having Jay Leno on at 10 PM, a secondary issue was keeping Jay Leno in the fold and hoping that Conan would capitulate and allow Jay Leno back into the old spot so NBC could get its old ratings back. Obviously if Conan was having Leno's previous ratings, Leno would have been shown the door.

With that said, Conan would have been fine over time and would have overtaken the 62 year old man on CBS. It took Leno two years to do it back in the 90s. Letterman's show on CBS was great for the first while, but for some reason he stopped caring, I couldn't figure it out. Check out the old clip of Letterman manning the McDonalds drive through or driving around El Lay in a convertable filled with tacos.

Then again I was spectacularly wrong about the Jay Leno Show in the first place. I knew the ratings weren't going to be solid but the show was cheap to produce and would therefore be profitable for NBC. What I didn't see was the affiliate-led revolt.

I stopped recording O'Brien's show after the first month. He wasn't nearly as good as when he was doing Late Night and he wasn't even close to Letterman from 1993-95. And apparently more people also liked the mind-numbing Leno in this spot. The late night shows are dying a slow death. I only record Jimmy Kimmel in the event they have Jake Byrd or Cousin Sal on.

[MarkGrace]

With that said, Conan would have been fine over time and would have overtaken the 62 year old man on CBS. It took Leno two years to do it back in the 90s.

That's what I don't understand. Didn't CBS know that at least in the short run Conan was going to lose to Dave? It seems patently obvious, and you would think they would have known that having experienced it once already. Just seems like this wasn't well thought out and was an extremely short-sighted reaction (as Patton Oswalt seemed to indicate on that clip I posted).

[TripletDaddy]

Really? It's the EXACT SAME SHOW, just an hour and 1/2 earlier in the day. You could say it's his fault for allowing his show to be aired so early, but this is NBC's screw up.

And how did Jay Leno fare his first 7 months? He didn't by chance lose to Arsenio Hall, did he?

Ha. I forgot about your track record of analytics in this area. If I recall, you were one of maybe two people chatting up Community here, but have since fell silent since pretty much everyone else chimed in to voice a disinterest in the show.

I forgot that you were a Conan fanboy, as well.

The Late Night format doesn't work in the 10PM time slot. That experiment failed. I don't disagree that NBC also takes some blame.

Conan's failure is neither the time slot nor the network. It is all Conan. Carson, Leno, et all have already proven that The Tonight Show works in its current format. Conan simply doesn't have the chops for that slot. He would work better on Fox in that time slot, frankly. Jimmy Fallon has to be feeling pretty nervous right about now.

[MarkGrace]

Here's the comment all the blogs are running that I was referring to:

Sources close to former 'Tonight Show' host Jay Leno tell me he is furious with the way NBC has treated him and Conan O'Brien and is considering walking away from the entire mess with his head held high. "Now that Conan has made it clear he is leaving the troubled network, Jay is considering doing the same. They have put Jay in a terrible position. It looks like he is the reason that Conan is now without a job. Jay is a great guy and it's not fair that due to NBC's stupidity he looks like the bad guy," a TV insider tells me. "Plus, what happens when Jay does return to the 11:35 slot if his audience doesn't immediately follow? How can he possibly trust the same network that canceled Conan after only seven months?"

[TripletDaddy]

That's what I don't understand. Didn't CBS know that at least in the short run Conan was going to lose to Dave? It seems patently obvious, and you would think they would have known that having experienced it once already. Just seems like this wasn't well thought out and was an extremely short-sighted reaction (as Patton Oswalt seemed to indicate on that clip I posted).

Well, based on the response on this very board, I don't recall many Conan fans acknowledging any patently obvious impending prolonged drop in ratings (well....maybe there was this one guy.....ahem....)

I am trying to tell you.....it is the demographic. Conan's schtick works for those that were weaned on Conan. And the majority of people watching the Tonight Show were simply not part of that group. 40-60 year old people are not going to all of sudden find Conan's facial contortions to be funny. It just wasn't a good marriage. That is the real failure here.....not that NBC should have forseen the ratings drop....but that NBC should have been able to discern that it would never work given Conan's style.

[Bastage]

Talk about the ultimate backfire for NBC.

[TripletDaddy]

Here's the comment all the blogs are running that I was referring to:

That makes sense to me, but it seems way different than saying that any of his peers actually think he is a jerk, let alone a critical mass of them.

[Flystripper]

Ha. I forgot about your track record of analytics in this area. If I recall, you were one of maybe two people chatting up Community here, but have since fell silent since pretty much everyone else chimed in to voice a disinterest in the show.

I forgot that you were a Conan fanboy, as well.

The Late Night format doesn't work in the 10PM time slot. That experiment failed. I don't disagree that NBC also takes some blame.

Conan's failure is neither the time slot nor the network. It is all Conan. Carson, Leno, et all have already proven that The Tonight Show works in its current format. Conan simply doesn't have the chops for that slot. He would work better on Fox in that time slot, frankly. Jimmy Fallon has to be feeling pretty nervous right about now.

Leno didn't have "the chops" for the gig during his first 2 years on The Tonight Show either. You could say that Conan has more experience since he was hosting Late Night for so long, but you could also say that Jay had an advantage since he was guest hosting The Tonight Show for a while before taking it over. I wonder what would happen if NBC gave Conan more time. I can't imagine Dave beating Conan for 17 more months.

[MarkGrace]

That makes sense to me, but it seems way different than saying that any of his peers actually think he is a jerk, let alone a critical mass of them.

Hey, you already made your point, only Siths speak in absolutes!

I've just seen or heard a bunch of slips from comics the last two days on blogs really going after Jay, and in a mean-spirited way (an people he would have noticed, because they are major players in the field). Coincidentally he releases this statement, and I was mostly wondering if the two were related.

[MarkGrace]

Well, based on the response on this very board, I don't recall many Conan fans acknowledging any patently obvious impending prolonged drop in ratings (well....maybe there was this one guy.....ahem....

I don't remember the discussion, because I didn't care all that much about it. To be honest, I don't watch late night TV much at all, except for the occasional musical guest, and I don't have a vested interest in any particular host (though I will admit that IMO Jay the least funny and worst interviewer of any I've seen).

That said, it's been hard to miss the saga the last two days when every single blog I read is all over it. I'm not trying to give myself the benefit of hindsight here, because I don't recall saying much in the initial discussion (though I Might Be Wrong). It just seems that when you have a brand new host competing against a host with a well established base, you're going to lose in the short run. Then Commando made a comment saying it took Jay two full years to get ahead of Dave, so I'm wondering how NBC didn't see this result (they'd seen it once) and why they had such a knee-jerk reaction after seven months.

[TripletDaddy]

I don't remember the discussion, because I didn't care all that much about it. To be honest, I don't watch late night TV much at all, except for the occasional musical guest, and I don't have a vested interest in any particular host (though I will admit that IMO Jay the least funny and worst interviewer of any I've seen).

That said, it's been hard to miss the saga the last two days when every single blog I read is all over it. I'm not trying to give myself the benefit of hindsight here, because I don't recall saying much in the initial discussion (though I Might Be Wrong). It just seems that when you have a brand new host competing against a host with a well established base, you're going to lose in the short run. Then Commando made a comment saying it took Jay two full years to get ahead of Dave, so I'm wondering how NBC didn't see this result (they'd seen it once) and had such a knee-jerk reaction after seven months.

I see it boiled down to the following:

You are NBC and the 10PM experiment has failed.

You are going to lose either Jay or Conan.

If you lose Jay, he will simply host his own Tonight Show at the slot opposite Conan.

Who will win the ratings war at that time slot? Jay, Dave, or Conan?

Jay has done such for years and years and years.

Adios, Conan.

[MarkGrace]

Hey, you already made your point, only Siths speak in absolutes!

I've just seen or heard a bunch of slips from comics the last two days on blogs really going after Jay, and in a mean-spirited way (an people he would have noticed, because they are major players in the field). Coincidentally he releases this statement, and I was mostly wondering if the two were related.

On this, in addition to clips that I've watched (some late night stuff that's been posted on blogs), much of my impression comes from that Patton Oswalt interview. He mentioned having lunch with two comics right before the interview, and the focus of their conversation at the lunch was about the whole situation.

He talked a bit about the dynamic between comics in the profession, and some of the unwritten rules -- or code of conduct, if you will -- among them. It was pretty interesting to listen to, because I don't really think about comedy from this standpoint (with sports I do, of course, but to me most comics are just big dweebs).

Anyway, from the dweeb stand up comic on my trivia team (and the other dweebs on my team really into the "art" of comedy), I know that they think Oswalt is the stand up guy of the moment, and that he is highly respected in his field and well connected to the general comedy scene. He gave off the impression that in general Jay's actions just aren't sitting well with people in the field.

I thought it was pretty interesting to listen to and kind of what set me off on that train of thought.