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Originally posted by Moliere
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”The first year’s volume, by GM’s own calculations, is 10 000 units, and you can’t save a company with that. That’s chicken feed. You’d need a vehicle that sells 400 000 units,” says John Wolkonowicz, an auto industry analyst at IHS Global Insight, in Lexington, Mass.
”There are not enough idiots who will buy it,” Johan de Nysschen, the president of Audi of America, told auto blogger Lawrence Ulrich.
”There are not enough idiots who will buy it,” Johan de Nysschen, the president of Audi of America, told auto blogger Lawrence Ulrich.
They assumed (from reports about the Volt) that the car would achieve 250 watt-hours per mile (155 watt-hours per kilometer) when operating on electricity, that gasoline would cost about $3 per gallon ($0.79 per liter), that electricity would cost $0.11 per kilowatt-hour, and that the car would cover 150 000 miles (roughly 241 000 kilometers) over a 12-year life. Result: a lifetime savings of $4875, ignoring charging costs. By discounting that sum at 10 percent over 12 years, to cover the cost of borrowing money, the authors arrived at a net savings of $3000 in fuel costs over the life of the vehicle. That’s what you’d save by running on wall current instead of gasoline.
”So if the extra batteries cost more than about $3000 up front, there is no way to make up the cost in future fuel-cost savings unless electricity prices drop or gasoline prices rise considerably,” says Jeremy Michalek, one of the authors of the study and a professor at CMU.
He and his colleagues assume a base price for lithium-ion batteries of about $1000/kWh, meaning that the Volt would require a battery pack costing $16 000—or $13000 higher than economic considerations can justify. Sure, battery costs may fall, and the federal government may give as much as $7500 in tax credits, shifting some of the burden from the car owner to the taxpayer. But it’s still uneconomical.
”So if the extra batteries cost more than about $3000 up front, there is no way to make up the cost in future fuel-cost savings unless electricity prices drop or gasoline prices rise considerably,” says Jeremy Michalek, one of the authors of the study and a professor at CMU.
He and his colleagues assume a base price for lithium-ion batteries of about $1000/kWh, meaning that the Volt would require a battery pack costing $16 000—or $13000 higher than economic considerations can justify. Sure, battery costs may fall, and the federal government may give as much as $7500 in tax credits, shifting some of the burden from the car owner to the taxpayer. But it’s still uneconomical.
I would be tempted to lease one for $199 per month on a two year lease. (Of course, I would charge it outside as well so it wouldn't burn down my house.) How did I miss that deal?
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