Law degree bubble=real estate bubble.

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  • UtahDan
    *
    • Nov 2008
    • 14496

    #1

    Law degree bubble=real estate bubble.

    From Law Professor Christine Hurt (Illinois):

    For a couple of decades now (and until a few years ago), the conventional wisdom was that real estate would always rise in value and that the world would always need lawyers. Home ownership at whatever cost, particularly with tax-deductible interest rates, was better than alternatives such as renting; financing a law degree with student loans, some of which was low-interest and tax-deductible, was an equally good investment given the value of the law degree. Just as something about home ownership seemed intrinsically good, so did getting a law degree, from any law school. Strangely, most law school educations were priced similarly. Law schools with lower employment rates charged more money than some schools with higher employment rates. Price was not a clear signal of quality. Anyway, more and larger houses were built; more and larger law schools were built. Then, as if on a dime, the world changed and all of a sudden lots of people with law degrees were getting laid off, deferred, ignored. The legal market was shrinking or changing in a seemingly semi-permanent way. We found out from Bill Henderson that the market for graduates was not what the "mean" employment statistics seemed to be touting. But more students came, financing the journey with student loans premised on promised salaries that have de-materialized before our eyes. (See Forbes; see NYT.)

    I have generally been sanguine about the disruption in the legal services market. After all, I went to law school from 1990-1993, which was a time of cancelled summer programs, fired associates and 50% offers to summer recruits. But I think the biggest difference is the debt burden. Law school tuition is much higher now, even at public schools where state money has all but disappeared. How can someone write off $100,000 or $200,000 in student loans as a bad call? Many of these loans aren't federal loans -- they are from private lenders at high rates. And, unlike homeowners, law students don't have a "put" option -- they can't tell lenders to take their law degrees and quit calling them.
    I have been thinking about this too. I doesn't seem like the system is sustainable when you juxtapose the massive expense (which as she points out cannot be discharged in bankruptcy) against the retrenching market for legal services. If anyone was thinking about law school and asked me at this point, I would say that unless you have the firepower to get into a good school and do well, I would look at doing something else as a career at the moment. Even in America there is not an unlimited demand for legal services.
  • Babs
    Not a Lawyer
    • Nov 2008
    • 17128

    #2
    yeah, I see these kids who honestly believe they're going to come out of law school making 120 a year and that they can pay off a 160k debt in 18 months or so. What's worse is that the law schools are deliberately skewing numbers to reinforce these beliefs. It's almost criminal.

    But obviously the system isn't entirely to blame. There was an interesting piece last week on "the hubris of law students." Something like 80% of first year law students believe the majority of their class won't find jobs, but only 7% believe they'll be one of them. Meanwhile 60% of 3Ls say they regret their decision to attend law school.

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    • jay santos
      Senior Member
      • Nov 2008
      • 13652

      #3
      Originally posted by UtahDan View Post
      From Law Professor Christine Hurt (Illinois):



      I have been thinking about this too. I doesn't seem like the system is sustainable when you juxtapose the massive expense (which as she points out cannot be discharged in bankruptcy) against the retrenching market for legal services. If anyone was thinking about law school and asked me at this point, I would say that unless you have the firepower to get into a good school and do well, I would look at doing something else as a career at the moment. Even in America there is not an unlimited demand for legal services.
      I don't see this as a problem. As supply goes up, price comes down. Good for the consumer. We need more medical schools so the same thing can happen for docs.

      Comment

      • Babs
        Not a Lawyer
        • Nov 2008
        • 17128

        #4
        Originally posted by jay santos View Post
        I don't see this as a problem. As supply goes up, price comes down. Good for the consumer. We need more medical schools
        with really low entrance requirements?

        Comment

        • Lost Student
          BAND!
          • Nov 2008
          • 4324

          #5
          I have a cousin that will be attending law school, starting this fall, at either Cleveland State U. or West Virginia U. Both are not good schools and I am sure tuition is pretty expensive at both. I am debating whether I should try to convince him to not do it.

          I think to do so would be doing him a favor but I can't see it coming off as anything but offensive, especially when he has never approached me about the topic or asked my opinion.
          "Seriously, is there a bigger high on the whole face of the earth than eating a salad?"--SeattleUte
          "The only Ute to cause even half the nationwide hysteria of Jimmermania was Ted Bundy."--TripletDaddy
          This is a tough, NYC broad, a doctor who deals with bleeding organs, dying people and testicles on a regular basis without crying."--oxcoug
          "I'm not impressed (and I'm even into choreography . . .)"--Donuthole
          "I too was fortunate to leave with my same balls."--byu71

          Comment

          • jay santos
            Senior Member
            • Nov 2008
            • 13652

            #6
            Originally posted by Babs View Post
            with really low entrance requirements?
            Define really low. I think we'd be fine with doubling the number of docs and creating a little more stratification in specialties. I don't need to wait in line an hour and pay $100 to see a man with top one percentile IQ and ten years of training for five minutes for him to tell me I have a virus and don't need an antibiotic.

            Comment

            • beelzebabette
              Golf & Cubs Disrespecter
              • Nov 2008
              • 2907

              #7
              Originally posted by jay santos View Post
              I don't need to wait in line an hour and pay $100 to see a man with top one percentile IQ and ten years of training for five minutes for him to tell me I have a virus and don't need an antibiotic.
              I believe we call the alternative PAs.

              Comment

              • Fiyero
                Banned
                • Nov 2008
                • 5266

                #8
                How awesome am I? I walked away from law school and got involved in real estate.

                Comment

                • jay santos
                  Senior Member
                  • Nov 2008
                  • 13652

                  #9
                  Originally posted by beelzebabette View Post
                  I believe we call the alternative PAs.
                  There's still not enough of them. My son broke a bone. I called around. No ortho could see him for a week. The only ortho in Utah county specializing in feet doesn't take patients without referrals from another doctor. The receptionist wouldn't even talk to me on the phone. Try threatening a doctor's office with taking your business to another doctor for lousy customer service. "I'm sorry you feel that way, but really we have too many patients already."

                  Comment

                  • Surfah
                    Where's Wallace?
                    • Nov 2008
                    • 33726

                    #10
                    Gidget's ex-fiance is going to Pat Robertson U law school this fall. There is no way I'd go into that kind of debt for that.
                    "Nobody listens to Turtle."
                    -Turtle
                    sigpic

                    Comment

                    • clackamascoug
                      Banned
                      • Dec 2009
                      • 9709

                      #11
                      My nephew is looking smarter all the time.

                      NWestern Law, 'took the Army up on paying his debt, and is a Captain in the JAG's. He speaks 5 languages, and travels the world doing Army law. He is on the staff of a 3 star and is on the fast track. When home, he goes to work at 7 and gets home at 4. He fully expects to retire as a General, with 10 years in, and 20 to go. He loves what he does, and has met some very well known people. He says he's decided to go the distance even though his experience is sought after in the private sector.

                      Comment

                      • wuapinmon
                        Soul Plumber
                        • Dec 2008
                        • 30711

                        #12
                        Attorneys and Physicians are always overpriced until you need one.
                        "Wuap's "problem" is that he is smart & principled & committed to a moral course of action. His actions are supposed to reflect his ethical code.
                        The rest of us rarely bother to think about our actions." --Solon

                        Comment

                        • HuskyFreeNorthwest
                          Time to camp
                          • Nov 2008
                          • 26082

                          #13
                          How much of being a lawyer is like a John Grisham book? That part of lawyering always seemed cool. Are any of you rainmakers?
                          Get confident, stupid
                          -landpoke

                          Comment

                          • Pheidippides
                            Liberal Feminazi
                            • Nov 2008
                            • 14759

                            #14
                            Originally posted by UtahDan View Post
                            From Law Professor Christine Hurt (Illinois):



                            I have been thinking about this too. I doesn't seem like the system is sustainable when you juxtapose the massive expense (which as she points out cannot be discharged in bankruptcy) against the retrenching market for legal services. If anyone was thinking about law school and asked me at this point, I would say that unless you have the firepower to get into a good school and do well, I would look at doing something else as a career at the moment. Even in America there is not an unlimited demand for legal services.
                            I agree with this. If I couldn't get into a top 15 school, I wouldn't go right now, except for BYU/Utah (because they are so cheap - at least they were last time I looked, which was 8 years ago).
                            Awesomeness now has a name. Let me introduce myself.

                            Comment

                            • mUUser
                              Giggity
                              • Jul 2009
                              • 1142

                              #15
                              Don't follow field of law, but doesn't seem much different than business school. It's a cutthroat world, regardless of which profession you choose. No?

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