Dow 8,500?

[statman]

Maybe you can hold his glasses for him. I've always found it interesting that the same people who so easily dismiss technical analysis will readily accept a hedonic regression model that explains the same market.

Good regression models will at least have some theory behind them. Much more than three ups and two downs define a cycle...

[cowboy]

There's plenty of peer reviewed stuff debunking technical analysis. Just google it and stick to reputable finance journals...

YOU use google? Who knew.

There's actually some good articles that substantiate technical analysis, including an interesting one from the Fed about technical support and resistance levels in currency trading. Technical analysis is controversial, but it is far from unequivocally debunked.

Good regression models will at least have some theory behind them. Much more than three ups and two downs define a cycle...

I assume from your moniker that you are familiar with hedonic regression, so now I must ask how much you know about technical analysis. Your initial responses suggest that you know very little.

I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer, so I look at others. When I look around and see that virtually all traders rely on some form of technical analysis, I can't help but wonder why. Usually, rather than assuming that I'm just smarter than everyone else, I try to figure out what they see that I don't. That's why I ask so many questions - it's my redneck IQ.

[byu71]

I am making this comment not to say technicals don't work, but that it obviously is not an exact science.

The tech guy for S&P has made four buy calls today and later rescinded them. All four. One of them was some candle and stick shooting star that is almost always accurate. Now that he has rescinded that one, maybe we can go up.

[cowboy]

Bump.

Hey '71, what do you think about buying $107 calls on the DIA and then shorting the DIA at $108? Technically, I see a correction to 10,800 on the Dow, but I think there is a good possibility of more pain in the future.

[byu71]

Bump.

Hey '71, what do you think about buying $107 calls on the DIA and then shorting the DIA at $108? Technically, I see a correction to 10,800 on the Dow, but I think there is a good possibility of more pain in the future.

What do you mean a correction to 10,800? I assume you mean it goes back up to 10,800 before pulling back? I have always heard a pullback as a correction but not a pullup, but why not?

I am sticking with what I said a few months ago. Run up to 11,000. Remember I chickened out when it hit 10,900. Then a pullback to around 10,000. It hasn't closed below there, but I am less sure that we won't. My guess was we would trade between 10,000 and 11,000, so yea your idea sounds good to me.

I only trade in my own account, not clients. I have been trading the SSO's and SDS', double S&P long and double S&P short. I trade options only one month out, so I am only playing 1-200 pt moves, not 700.

[cowboy]

What do you mean a correction to 10,800? I assume you mean it goes back up to 10,800 before pulling back? I have always heard a pullback as a correction but not a pullup, but why not?

I am sticking with what I said a few months ago. Run up to 11,000. Remember I chickened out when it hit 10,900. Then a pullback to around 10,000. It hasn't closed below there, but I am less sure that we won't. My guess was we would trade between 10,000 and 11,000, so yea your idea sounds good to me.

I only trade in my own account, not clients. I have been trading the SSO's and SDS', double S&P long and double S&P short. I trade options only one month out, so I am only playing 1-200 pt moves, not 700.

Yeah, my vernacular is my own. I call a correction anything that is counter to the current trend.

I'm playing this same strategy in the cattle futures. There, it's a little easier because the market has given up 8% in the last ten trading days while the fundamentals have gotten a touch stronger. It's an obvious case of funds liquidating longs.

[byu71]

Yeah, my vernacular is my own. I call a correction anything that is counter to the current trend.

I'm playing this same strategy in the cattle futures. There, it's a little easier because the market has given up 8% in the last ten trading days while the fundamentals have gotten a touch stronger. It's an obvious case of funds liquidating longs.

There's fundamentals and then there are emotions and momentum playing I guess in any market.

I am going golfing right now. The momentum has been bad. I am hoping for a correction.

[Mr Incredible]

My interest in this tread severly declined when I realized they weren't arguing about hedonistic analysis.