Dow 8,500?

[cowboy]

Retracements take the Dow back to 9,600 and then 8,500 on an ABC correction. What do you market guys think? Viking, I know that talking about the Dow is beneath you, but try to keep it simple for us rednecks.

[byu71]

Retracements take the Dow back to 9,600 and then 8,500 on an ABC correction. What do you market guys think? Viking, I know that talking about the Dow is beneath you, but try to keep it simple for us rednecks.

I really am constrained from giving an opinion on an internet site because of our lawyer friends peers.

If I weren't under such a constraint, I would say I highly doubt it goes to 8,500. ABC's are for little kids in elementary school.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I'm too lazy to Google it. What is an ABC correction?

[Pheidippides]

I'm too lazy to Google it. What is an ABC correction?

http://www.babypips.com/school/abc_correction.html

[Indy Coug]

All I know if if it's going to drop, it needs to do it now so when I get my employer contribution of 10% to my 401k in early March, it will be ready to go back up.

[byu71]

http://www.babypips.com/school/abc_correction.html

It would be interesting to see, but I think the Elliott Wave theory had the market going to 5,000 or 4,500 back when the market was at 6,500. Go back and look and I will bet you won't find too many technicians calling for the market to go up when it was 6,500.

Ever hear of Ralph Acanpora (sp). Didn't think so. One of the best technicians around until he totally blew it. I should go see what Lousie Yamada is saying. She is pretty good, although she also was down to 5,000

[Moliere]

I'm too lazy to Google it. What is an ABC correction?

It is when these guys have a hit single, but then people realize they don't have talent.

[Surfah]

It is when these guys have a hit single, but then people realize they don't have talent.

This was the first CD I ever owned.

[statman]

Sorry, but technical analysis is crap. You can "fit" trends on past behavior, but only because you get to decide where each trend starts and stops ex post facto. Looking back, most technicians even will agree how the little trends should be aggregated. But looking forward, technicians generally can't beat random chance...

I've seen some technical trading schemes that use volatility as triggers that have been able to consistently beat random chance, but not by much. Once you figure in the transaction costs that volatility trading dumps on normal investors, they're behind the curve...

[cowboy]

Sorry, but technical analysis is crap. You can "fit" trends on past behavior, but only because you get to decide where each trend starts and stops ex post facto. Looking back, most technicians even will agree how the little trends should be aggregated. But looking forward, technicians generally can't beat random chance...

I've seen some technical trading schemes that use volatility as triggers that have been able to consistently beat random chance, but not by much. Once you figure in the transaction costs that volatility trading dumps on normal investors, they're behind the curve...

Are you arguing that technical lines of support and resistance are accurate out of pure random chance? Have you performed any research on this, or are you quoting peer-reviewed studies, or is this just your opinion?

[landpoke]

Are you arguing that technical lines of support and resistance are accurate out of pure random chance? Have you performed any research on this, or are you quoting peer-reviewed studies, or is this just your opinion?

I think he's calling you stupid. I suggest you two meet at the end of the pavement after school.

[cowboy]

I think he's calling you stupid. I suggest you two meet at the end of the pavement after school.

Maybe you can hold his glasses for him. I've always found it interesting that the same people who so easily dismiss technical analysis will readily accept a hedonic regression model that explains the same market.

[byu71]

Are you arguing that technical lines of support and resistance are accurate out of pure random chance? Have you performed any research on this, or are you quoting peer-reviewed studies, or is this just your opinion?

I would never ignore technicals. In a market like this where the investor has gone to the sidelines, I look at technicals even more because the people in it right now are traders. They look at technicals and so a lot of them are making the same decisions and thus the market will move based on the technicals until the investors decide to get back in.

I have access to the S&P Technician and read his comments all day long. I think he is pretty good and right maybe 57% of the time. You can make money being right more than 1/2 of the time.

[landpoke]

Maybe you can hold his glasses for him. I've always found it interesting that the same people who so easily dismiss technical analysis will readily accept a hedonic regression model that explains the same market.

Tell me about it!

(I got a headache reading the wikipedia explanation of hedonic regression model)

[statman]

Are you arguing that technical lines of support and resistance are accurate out of pure random chance? Have you performed any research on this, or are you quoting peer-reviewed studies, or is this just your opinion?

There's plenty of peer reviewed stuff debunking technical analysis. Just google it and stick to reputable finance journals...