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So I'm not making any predictions, let's start with that caveat.
That said, I think BYU has unique prospects next year for a Giant Leap Forward. Here are the factors I see working in their favor:
1. QB LEARNING LEAP
The potential for progress from year one true frosh to year two sophomore is unique. The awe of being a D1 starter is rubbed off and the system - by a QB as smart as we think Heaps can be - is absorbed. No guarantees, but my money would be on the Heaps we saw yesterday being the norm by the beginning of next year.
2. POTENTIAL HIGH-IMPACT PERSONNEL ADDITIONS
Uona Kaveinga is going to be chomping at the bit and the upgrade in BYU's defensive ability from Shane Hunter to Kav is going to be huge. You go from a journeyman Bronco walkon to a blue chip killer who has been dying for his chance and has now had a full year to prep. On offense - Ross Apo is legit. I'll probably get a chorus of "what has he proven?" responses, but based on numerous firsthand reports this kid is simply a caliber of WR talent that BYU hasn't had... ever. Not even Collie (on the level of total athleticism). The combo Hoffman as a soph, MJ as a senior and Apo in the mix is going to be a pack of BYU receiving talent that we haven't seen before. And - while he's far less of a sure thing even than Apo - the prospect of legit, homerun speed in Drew Philips would add a bit of something.
3. A SETTLED, MORE EXPERIENCED TE POSITION
Whatever the combination of Matthews-Wilson-Holt-Mahina-Muehlmann ends up surviving at the TE position, whichever 2-3 guys become the rotation out of that set, next year we will have guys who aren't brand spanking new, who aren't afraid of the game and have had lots of reps together with their offensive mates.
4. DEPTH AND DIVERSITY AT RB
And by diversity, I don't mean the fact that we'll have one half AA/half Poly, one Italian American dude, and one half Asian guy - I mean it looks like we'll have THREE proven backs in the mix, plus possibly a bit of Drew Philips to make us more dynamic on the edge and in the slot.
5. A STRONG RETURNING GROUP ON THE OL
Yeah losing Matt Reynolds will obviously be felt, and it's not clear yet who will replace him. But here's what returns - the Bradens, Brown and Hansen, as juniors with two full years in the system behind them. Terrence Brown as a Senior. Marco Thorsen possibly taken the guard spot with Hansen moving back to OT will be a trusted senior with a ton of experience. Walter Kahaiali'i has looked capable and could claim a spot. Houston Reynolds could obviously be in the mix. Jordan Black looks like a serious upcoming talent and could be ready to step in to replace Reynolds. Point is - in total performance I don't expect much dropoff from what has been a VERY good o line.
6. THE RIGHT SORT OF SCHEDULE
BYU has the right sort of mix on the schedule next year. Big but potentially vulnerable early opponent in Texas followed by winnable matchups with Utah and the Oregon State mixed in with a whole lot of fluff and filler. It ain't Boise State pathetic, but if the Cougs can pull off those three wins (admittedly a big if) it's entirely likely we'll win out against the remainder of the schedule.
7. INSANE DEPTH AND EXPERIENCE AT LB
We've heard rumors of BYU switching back to the 4-3 but BYU is simply going to have too much depth and talent and LB next year for that to make sense. Kav, Pendleton, KVN, Ogletree, Leng-Wai, Stout (I don't think he's going on a mission), Jorgensen, Wagner and Frazier just from this year's returning group - and that doesn't even factor for a bumper crop coming off of missions in Hadley, Alisa, Pritchard and Sorensen (who I would see going back to safety). OR Jordan Atkinson who RS'd this year. OR Alani Fua who is one of BYU's most interesting upcoming talents. A probable starting 4 would be Pendleton, KVN, Kav and Ogletree (with heavy rotation at ILB with Stout, Leng-Wai and Jorgensen). Short version: Very possibly the deepest LB group BYU has ever had and probably the most talented since Leon White and Kurt Gouveia were playing together.
Which brings us to the two counterpoints to this rosy vision of next year's possibilities.
1. LOSSES IN THE SECONDARY
Andrew Rich is on BYU's all-decade defensive team. This dude won't be easily replaced. Logan has been such a great story and so reliable. Brandon Bradley hasn't been as stellar as I'd hoped but has provided stability. So I won't pretend that we won't feel the transition next year - but we've got some pretty good reason to think that...well... maybe we won't feel it that much. At CB, Robbie Buckner had a slight edge on Logan in fall camp of 2009 before he got hurt. Logan stepped up and from there it's history. The point is, Buckner has killer quick feet and now he will have spent three years absorbing the system. I have high hopes that we won't notice much there. At Bradley's corner spot we're going to find out if one of our JC transfers - Aguirre or Everett - has the stuff. I actually think there won't be a much dropoff there and maybe even an improvement. Coming in Aguirre was rated even or maybe even a little ahead of Logan and I'm hopeful he'll step right in. The safety spot is where we really need to hold our breath. It seems the two spots will be settled between Uale, Thomas, Galei and probably Joe Sampson - with a possible darkhorse candidate like Sorensen coming off of a mission. My hope is that Sampson shows he can pick up the defense quickly and that Galei has picked up the learning curve. That would give us the best athletes. But if I know Bronco that won't be the combo. The good news is that the talent is there. We'll see if that's enough.
2. POSSIBLE QUESTIONS ON THE D LINE
It's unfortunate that So'oto's time finally had to come in a year that most people will want to forget, but he's been solid all year and I won't be shocked if he finds his way into the NFL. Someone will need to step in for him. Romney Fuga was looking like one of BYU's best players before his injury and we'll have to see if he can get back to that level. But even with those question marks I think things look good for the D line. Manumaleuna has been rock solid stepping into the primary NT role. Thomas Bryson has been showing very capably as a frosh at DE. Travis Tuiloma was immovable in fall camp and I think he's not going on a mission until the following year. Graham Rowley was the most under-hyped 4-star talent BYU's ever recruited and the last I heard he wasn't planning on a mission - though I could have that wrong. Jordan Richardson has showed well as the scrappy, high-motor BYU DL prototype. And for better or worse, Matt Putnam will have tons of experienced. Short version - I think the DL will get better, not worse next year.
So we'll see - too early to start making big predictions (much will depend on how much further Heaps develops this year) but if things fall the right way a one-loss 2011 or even better isn't out of the question. Then again, neither is a 3-4 loss season.
That said, I think BYU has unique prospects next year for a Giant Leap Forward. Here are the factors I see working in their favor:
1. QB LEARNING LEAP
The potential for progress from year one true frosh to year two sophomore is unique. The awe of being a D1 starter is rubbed off and the system - by a QB as smart as we think Heaps can be - is absorbed. No guarantees, but my money would be on the Heaps we saw yesterday being the norm by the beginning of next year.
2. POTENTIAL HIGH-IMPACT PERSONNEL ADDITIONS
Uona Kaveinga is going to be chomping at the bit and the upgrade in BYU's defensive ability from Shane Hunter to Kav is going to be huge. You go from a journeyman Bronco walkon to a blue chip killer who has been dying for his chance and has now had a full year to prep. On offense - Ross Apo is legit. I'll probably get a chorus of "what has he proven?" responses, but based on numerous firsthand reports this kid is simply a caliber of WR talent that BYU hasn't had... ever. Not even Collie (on the level of total athleticism). The combo Hoffman as a soph, MJ as a senior and Apo in the mix is going to be a pack of BYU receiving talent that we haven't seen before. And - while he's far less of a sure thing even than Apo - the prospect of legit, homerun speed in Drew Philips would add a bit of something.
3. A SETTLED, MORE EXPERIENCED TE POSITION
Whatever the combination of Matthews-Wilson-Holt-Mahina-Muehlmann ends up surviving at the TE position, whichever 2-3 guys become the rotation out of that set, next year we will have guys who aren't brand spanking new, who aren't afraid of the game and have had lots of reps together with their offensive mates.
4. DEPTH AND DIVERSITY AT RB
And by diversity, I don't mean the fact that we'll have one half AA/half Poly, one Italian American dude, and one half Asian guy - I mean it looks like we'll have THREE proven backs in the mix, plus possibly a bit of Drew Philips to make us more dynamic on the edge and in the slot.
5. A STRONG RETURNING GROUP ON THE OL
Yeah losing Matt Reynolds will obviously be felt, and it's not clear yet who will replace him. But here's what returns - the Bradens, Brown and Hansen, as juniors with two full years in the system behind them. Terrence Brown as a Senior. Marco Thorsen possibly taken the guard spot with Hansen moving back to OT will be a trusted senior with a ton of experience. Walter Kahaiali'i has looked capable and could claim a spot. Houston Reynolds could obviously be in the mix. Jordan Black looks like a serious upcoming talent and could be ready to step in to replace Reynolds. Point is - in total performance I don't expect much dropoff from what has been a VERY good o line.
6. THE RIGHT SORT OF SCHEDULE
BYU has the right sort of mix on the schedule next year. Big but potentially vulnerable early opponent in Texas followed by winnable matchups with Utah and the Oregon State mixed in with a whole lot of fluff and filler. It ain't Boise State pathetic, but if the Cougs can pull off those three wins (admittedly a big if) it's entirely likely we'll win out against the remainder of the schedule.
7. INSANE DEPTH AND EXPERIENCE AT LB
We've heard rumors of BYU switching back to the 4-3 but BYU is simply going to have too much depth and talent and LB next year for that to make sense. Kav, Pendleton, KVN, Ogletree, Leng-Wai, Stout (I don't think he's going on a mission), Jorgensen, Wagner and Frazier just from this year's returning group - and that doesn't even factor for a bumper crop coming off of missions in Hadley, Alisa, Pritchard and Sorensen (who I would see going back to safety). OR Jordan Atkinson who RS'd this year. OR Alani Fua who is one of BYU's most interesting upcoming talents. A probable starting 4 would be Pendleton, KVN, Kav and Ogletree (with heavy rotation at ILB with Stout, Leng-Wai and Jorgensen). Short version: Very possibly the deepest LB group BYU has ever had and probably the most talented since Leon White and Kurt Gouveia were playing together.
Which brings us to the two counterpoints to this rosy vision of next year's possibilities.
1. LOSSES IN THE SECONDARY
Andrew Rich is on BYU's all-decade defensive team. This dude won't be easily replaced. Logan has been such a great story and so reliable. Brandon Bradley hasn't been as stellar as I'd hoped but has provided stability. So I won't pretend that we won't feel the transition next year - but we've got some pretty good reason to think that...well... maybe we won't feel it that much. At CB, Robbie Buckner had a slight edge on Logan in fall camp of 2009 before he got hurt. Logan stepped up and from there it's history. The point is, Buckner has killer quick feet and now he will have spent three years absorbing the system. I have high hopes that we won't notice much there. At Bradley's corner spot we're going to find out if one of our JC transfers - Aguirre or Everett - has the stuff. I actually think there won't be a much dropoff there and maybe even an improvement. Coming in Aguirre was rated even or maybe even a little ahead of Logan and I'm hopeful he'll step right in. The safety spot is where we really need to hold our breath. It seems the two spots will be settled between Uale, Thomas, Galei and probably Joe Sampson - with a possible darkhorse candidate like Sorensen coming off of a mission. My hope is that Sampson shows he can pick up the defense quickly and that Galei has picked up the learning curve. That would give us the best athletes. But if I know Bronco that won't be the combo. The good news is that the talent is there. We'll see if that's enough.
2. POSSIBLE QUESTIONS ON THE D LINE
It's unfortunate that So'oto's time finally had to come in a year that most people will want to forget, but he's been solid all year and I won't be shocked if he finds his way into the NFL. Someone will need to step in for him. Romney Fuga was looking like one of BYU's best players before his injury and we'll have to see if he can get back to that level. But even with those question marks I think things look good for the D line. Manumaleuna has been rock solid stepping into the primary NT role. Thomas Bryson has been showing very capably as a frosh at DE. Travis Tuiloma was immovable in fall camp and I think he's not going on a mission until the following year. Graham Rowley was the most under-hyped 4-star talent BYU's ever recruited and the last I heard he wasn't planning on a mission - though I could have that wrong. Jordan Richardson has showed well as the scrappy, high-motor BYU DL prototype. And for better or worse, Matt Putnam will have tons of experienced. Short version - I think the DL will get better, not worse next year.
So we'll see - too early to start making big predictions (much will depend on how much further Heaps develops this year) but if things fall the right way a one-loss 2011 or even better isn't out of the question. Then again, neither is a 3-4 loss season.
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