2017 BYU Pre-Camp Roster Evaluation

[Green Monstah]

What ever came of Dayan's Twitter bellyaching?

Nothing. He's been making plays and doing extra 1 on 1 work against receivers. Sounds like it was just venting.

[Pelado]

LB: 10
Butch, Bernard and Warner anchor one of the top LB units in the country. All three have next level ability. Warner is one of the top LBs in the country, able to play in space like a big safety or in the box. He can cover or stuff the run. Butch has a nose for the ball, and though he may not have some of the physical measurements of Warner or Bernard, his instincts help him play faster. And boy, can he HIT. Bernard is just an athletic specimen. What he lacks in experience, he makes up for by going 100 mph. There is talent behind them too. Isaiah Kaufusi looked like a stud in spring. Adam Pulsipher has seen significant playing time. Our LBs are easily the strength.

How far down does this rating plunge without Bernard available?

[Sizzle]

I figure it'll be interesting to revisit this during and after the season and see how things shake out. I'll probably be up in the night here, but I'm pretty optimistic about the team this year. We seem to be strong in a few places that we need to be strong to be successful, and where we have question marks, I think there is talent there, just a but unproven. With that, I scored each position group on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being extreme panic and 10 being extreme confidence. From my gut, here is where I view things:

QB: 8
I think Tanner has a lot of upside that could prove this rating to be low (I hope so!). Where I think Tanner gets into trouble is he trusts his arm a bit too much at times, trying to force throws that aren’t there instead of making the throws he should make. This is meant like a compliment, but Tanner reminds me a bit of John Beck as a Junior – the physical tools are there. When (not so much if, but when) the game slows down for him, watch out. The depth chart behind him isn’t as strong as last year when Tanner was behind Taysom, but I think Hoge has gotten better and could fill in fine, especially against the bac half of our schedule.

RB: 6.5
What BYU lacks in the feature back category, they make up for a bit with depth. Canada, Dye, Hall, Burt, Tolutau all have different strengths and all seem like they could be a feature back in this offense. Don’t hate me for bumping the grade up slightly for the possibility of Big Mo playing Fridge style at the goal line. I do think that our backs will look better than this score at the end of the year, in part due to recency bias from a weak back-half of the schedule, as well as anticipated strong OL play.

WR/TE: 5.0
Toughest group to score. I think there are guys that I like more than this score, but they’re unproven. I’m hoping Trinnaman has a big year and Matt Bushman is as good as advertised. MLP in the shift to TE has the potential to be solid, and Balderree as a 3rd TE is a good option. Trinnaman I think has at least 3 catches that go for 50+ this year. I like Hifo and I thought Simon impressed two springs ago. Akile Davis is also a guy who could step up. Shumway has a lot of fans as well. I think there is talent here, and I think having a QB that gives WRs a chance to make plays on balls will help. Someone will step up, but I don’t know that any one player will have more than 700 yards receiving or more than 6 TDs. Maybe like the backs it’ll be spread around by committee.

OL: 8
I think BYU is set up nicely on the OL for the first time in a long time. Anchored by Koroma they have leadership. Guys with experience include Kanuch, Norman, Shoaf and Hoyt. Then there are talented guys competing for spots like Longson, Herring and Chambers. The unit would be better if Ului Lapuaho was back for sure this year. Either way, with Hoge coming in next year, this should (thankfully) start to be a strength for BYU again, which goes a long ways to being successful elsewhere.

DL: 7.5
The DL is going to be the key to the defense this year. There are a lot of bodies here, and a lot of talent. The big question is whether or not they’ll be able to get consistent pressure. A Kaufusi on the DL has felt like a Reynolds on the OL the prior decade. Big bodies inside like Mo-unga, Tanielu and Tausinga should anchor the middle. From the outside, I think Takitaki has the potential to be a difference maker. I was really excited about Uriah Leiataua as well when he picked BYU over Stanford on signing day. Keanu Saleapaga also looks like a football player. If we can get pressure with the front four (or only bringing one backer) things will look really good for the defense this year.

LB: 10
Butch, Bernard and Warner anchor one of the top LB units in the country. All three have next level ability. Warner is one of the top LBs in the country, able to play in space like a big safety or in the box. He can cover or stuff the run. Butch has a nose for the ball, and though he may not have some of the physical measurements of Warner or Bernard, his instincts help him play faster. And boy, can he HIT. Bernard is just an athletic specimen. What he lacks in experience, he makes up for by going 100 mph. There is talent behind them too. Isaiah Kaufusi looked like a stud in spring. Adam Pulsipher has seen significant playing time. Our LBs are easily the strength.

CB: 9
Dayan Ghanwoloku and Troy Warner are probably the best starting sophomore tandem in BYU’s history. Highly recruited, good cover guys who have a nose for the ball. But behind those guys you have talented guys who have experience as well, like McChesney, Shelton (who is underrated as a nickel corner – just too bad he isn’t a bit taller) and Chris Wilcox (who I thought did okay last year, especially considering he got thrown into things before he was ready). I almost expect one or two of these guys to get moved to safety.

S: 7.5
Micah Hannemann is the returning starter who is solid. Matt Hadley saw a lot of minutes last year and I think will see most of the time alongside Hannemann. Zayne Anderson, Austin Lee and Tanner Jacobsen all could be in the mix for playing time. A solid group, but lacking a playmaker like we’ve been spoiled to have had with Nacua the last few years.

K/P: 7.5
It’s a pleasant surprise that Linehan is back this year. He definitely helps our punt game (just not the fake-punt game). Rhett Almond is back and was 17-18 on kicks inside 40-yards last year and 39-40 on PATs. The issue is he was also 0-3 on kicks longer than 40-yards last year. And we don’t have the green-shoed Freshman from Texas around anymore to bail us out on those longer kicks. Bold prediction: Almond makes a kick longer than 40-yards this year. Corey Edwards handled kickoffs last year and was fine. I wouldn’t expect that to change this year.

Return: 7
I’d give this a higher score if it were Burt back there, or James Dye – but if it’s Trey Dye, I’d probably lower the score a bit. Hifo is probably about a 7. Burt reminds me a bit of Hine, someone capable of breaking a return every time he’s back there. Hadley is the other guy who has gotten some time returning kicks – it’s a bit of a mystery who will actually be back there.

Punt/Kick Coverage: 9
With the depth at DB and LB, as well as a few athletic guys who spent some time on defense playing on offense now like Kavika Fonua, our coverage units should be good.

Summary:
This team reminds me a lot of the BYU team from 2005/2006 -- there is a lot of talent in a lot of the right places. Some of it is unproven, some of it is guys who have played a few seasons (maybe earlier than they should've) but are now the leaders of the team. While I wouldn't be shocked to see us struggle a bit in terms of record out of the gate, I expect us to compete in large part thanks to our defense. The offense will go as Tanner goes -- when the game slows down for him, this offense could be really, really good. Having a good QB with a stingy defense could make for a fun season.

I was way off. After 4 games, here is where I would rate things:

QB: 3 This score is probably generous -- 2 TDs and 6 INTs is not a good start. 55% completion percentage not going to get it done. (Change -5)
RB: 4 This is bolstered by Tolutau looking like a feature back. But the rest - not good. (Change -2.5)
WR/TE: 3 Saved by Bushman primarily, and a few nice plays by Shumway and Simon. (Change -2)
OL: 4 I guess this is fair. Hard to say how much has been lack of talent at the skill positions and lack of push from the OL. (Change -4)

Overall, the offense is struggling pretty dramatically ranking in the bottom five of most of the important categories. Sure SOS plays a role, but they've also been not good.

DL: 5.5 Tonga looks to be a monster. Kaufusi and Takitaki have both had moments. A few of the other guys have mad a few plays. The consistent lack of pressure is a bit concerning. (Change -2)
LB: 5 Butch has been great against the run, but suspect against the pass. Warner has been neutralized a bit more than I'd hoped and has missed some tackles. Not having Bernard hurts as Hadley has been okay but Pulsipher has been terrible. Definitely not the anchor we hoped the defense would be. (Change -5)
CB: 5 Fred has been good. Dayan has been okay. Wilcox has been bad. It seemed like the last game we'd get killed when we'd sub out our starting corners, although our starters got beaten a few times as well. (Change -4)
S: 3 Marvin Hifo has been one of the more consistent performers at safety... and he hasn't been good. Did anyone know who Marvin Hifo was before the LSU game?

While the offense gets most of the attention for the struggles, it's not like the defense has been great either. A lack of pressure and an alarming lack of turnovers is a huge part of the struggles.

Specials teams - whatever. Our FG kicking game hurt us against Utah but outside of that, our offense hasn't done enough to really judge. Linnehan had another bad fake punt decision and his punts have been... whatever. Trinnaman is going to break one this year, but it'll probably be in a game we're already well ahead and don't need the score.

So far, disappointment. Not in the record but in the way the games have gone. (well, I guess in the record too, I was really hoping on 2-2)

[BigFatMeanie]

I would be interested in your take on coaching/playcalling for the O and D - give them a rating as well.

I'm not a football guru but from my amateur observations it seems like BYU has done very little in the way of defensive looks/stunts/blitzes. They often have only the 3 down linemen and then everyone else is dropping into coverage (and still getting beat). I thought one of the benefits of a 3-4 is that it allowed the team to do all kinds of interesting blitzes and different formations/looks. Am I simply not seeing the interesting formations/blitzes due to my rank amateurism?

[Sizzle]

I would be interested in your take on coaching/playcalling for the O and D - give them a rating as well.

I'm not a football guru but from my amateur observations it seems like BYU has done very little in the way of defensive looks/stunts/blitzes. They often have only the 3 down linemen and then everyone else is dropping into coverage (and still getting beat). I thought one of the benefits of a 3-4 is that it allowed the team to do all kinds of interesting blitzes and different formations/looks. Am I simply not seeing the interesting formations/blitzes due to my rank amateurism?

I'll try to compile my thoughts as concise as I can. Honestly, I haven't gone back and re-watched a single game yet this year - haven't had a desire to do so, so most observations are based on what I saw the first time and may not be right.

To start, I believe Kalani is trying to follow a similar approach that Kyle used at Utah. Play conservative offensive football, keep the games close with tough defense and hope to do enough to win at the end. In short, play ugly football, but win. Utah I think has been able to make this work in large part due to great special teams play. Their punting flips field position more often than not, and their FG kickers have been exceptional. Additionally, I'd say they've traditionally been "plus" in the return game. By being borderline great on defense and special teams, it lets them overcome a mediocre offense. I think it's also why they've had issues cycling through so many OCs under Whit's tenure - they may not have the same vision he does (which who can blame them when your job is "just don't do anything to screw us up").

I think that's an important base to start from because I think it helps understand why we've seen a very conservative offense, and (this is my opinion) a Tanner who is playing to not make a mistake instead of trying to make a play. 2015 Tanner, especially early season Tanner, played with nothing to lose. A wing and a prayer. Put it up and give his guys a chance to make a play. With his arm, he could get away with that. I think Ty has tried to make him a better passer, playing smart, which is what needs to happen if he wants to play in the NFL. The problem is it's forcing him out of where he's most comfortable. Spread systems are very much find the mismatch pre-snap and get the ball there quickly. Ty's system relies on that happening more as the play develops. When it's clicking, it's a thing of beauty and nearly impossible to stop. I think it's a combination of one, trying to appease the overall philosophy of "protect the ball" and not being able to trust what he's seeing as he works through the live reads that's having him check down a lot. I think that's part of it.

Another part, at least offensively, I think is a little bit a lack of and upper-end talent. I think BYU lacks the one or two guys who are "plus" players that are capable of turning a 5-yard gain into a 10-yard gain on a run like Jamaal last year, or a 6-yard slant into a 60-yard TD. I do think that Ula and Bushman have shown some of that potential, but they're not there yet. Most of the guys BYU has on offense are capable of being contributors, but there isn't the guy that teams have to gameplay to takeaway. Maybe that isn't a fair statement to make, but you look at the difference in Utah's offense with a guy like Carrington - teams have to give him extra attention and it makes everyone else's job that much easier.

With offensive play calling, or more specifically, how much blame falls on Ty, I struggle. There have been a lot of times the right play has been called - guys are open, the hole is there, etc. but we haven't executed. At the same time, I have to wonder if part of the problem is an offense that is too complex, or is asking too much out of the players. Most good teams have their "play" that you have to stop. Something they can go to that helps build rhythm, gets 5 to 6 yards and that teams have to focus on stopping. I'm not sure I could tell you what that is for BYU.

Defensively, I think we're seeing similar things. I felt like we did more of that last year and it helped force a lot of turnovers. The only thing I can think of is this year we don't have a safety that they trust like Nacua that can help on the back end, and is forcing us to drop more into coverage and take less risks. I think he erased a lot of mistakes, or made a lot of plays that allowed us to gamble. Hanneman hasn't been able to do that, and was suspended for basically the entire Utah game. Tanner Jacobsen has been just okay. Same with Austin Lee. Fine players, but not guys who create those plays. That's the only thing I can think of that forcing us to play more conservatively up front. And yes, our lack of pressure with the 3 or 4 guys we rush in base has made it tougher to get pressure.

I probably tend to give most coaches the benefit of the doubt, and that I don't understand the challenges that they see with their own team. But some of the decisions from a fan point of view don't always make the most sense to me. I think our playing conservative, or what almost comes across as playing not to lose instead of playing to win has hurt us.

With that said, our schedule definitely lightens up here quickly. It'll be interesting to see where the team is at when not playing teams that are ranked in the top 25 (or, top 10 like LSU and Wisconsin are/were).

[mtnbiker]

CB: 5 Fred has been good. Dayan has been okay. Wilcox has been bad.

I think you mean Troy, not Fred.

I like what Brian Logan says on After Further Review. He shows how the players tend to 'cover grass' instead of covering receivers. Bump/reroute people coming through their area. They need to force the receiver to change their routes instead of passively trying to follow them around. Corners need to play inside the receiver to take away the slant and force the quarterback to see that his man is covered.

Linebackers tend to be slow in their reads, too, and end up being engaging blockers 3 yards downfield instead of actually plugging holes. No lineman currently even seems to warrant a double-team, leaving blockers free to attack the second level. Kaufusi and Takitaki are decent getting upfield on pass plays, but stand too high on running plays and blockers get leverage against them and knock them off the ball.

On offense, none of the receivers fight for the ball. Beau Tanner lets the ball drop to him while the defender high-points it and intercepts. Go get it! Bad hands all around, and no separation.

The line doesn't get any push and can't seem to block the 1st or 2nd level defenders, and the running backs aren't seeing what small holes there may be, although Tolutau seems to have the most promise.

And the qbs need to be able to trust their receivers and put the ball out there where their guy can go get it, but that trust doesn't seem to be there (for good reason). A little more air under the ball here, leading the receiver a little better there, and we'd have some exciting plays to talk about, but so far there's not a lot of positives to talk about.

I really hope they start to put things together soon.