BYU prediction contest results: Wagner

[pelagius]

Results for the Wagner Game: HuskyFreeNorthwest wins for the second time this year. Barely edging out D-hole.

                     rank  points  win    mov      df  bpred  opred
poster                                                              
HuskyFreeNorthwest       1  91.535   34  29.70  27.835     72     10
Donuthole                2  88.780   34  26.40  28.380     66      6
Y84it                    3  85.088   34  28.05  23.038     64      3
imanihonjin              4  82.091   34  26.40  21.691     63      3
Copelius                 4  82.091   34  26.40  21.691     63      3
Sullyute                 6  81.850   34  29.70  18.150     62      0
The_Douger               7  71.899   34  15.40  22.499     63      7
CJF                      8  60.765   34  15.40  11.365     59      3
Pelado                   9  53.498   34  15.40   4.098     56      0
SCcoug                   9  53.498   34  15.40   4.098     56      0
Jeff Lebowski            9  53.498   34  15.40   4.098     56      0
originalsocal            9  53.498   34  15.40   4.098     56      0
The_Tick                13  51.779   34   8.25   9.529     58      3
Goatnapper'96           14  48.877   34   2.75  12.128     59      6
Omaha 680               15  44.790   34   0.00  10.790     59     10
wally                   16  44.595   34   8.25   2.345     55      0
Bo Diddley              17  40.367   34   0.00   6.367     56      7
hostile                 18  39.372   34   0.00   5.372     56     10
LiveCoug                19  37.974   34   0.00   3.974     55      3
DrumNFeather            20  35.591   34   0.00   1.591     55     13
PaloAltoCougar          21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     52      6
Topper                  21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     52      3
Uncle Ted               21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     49      3
San Juan Sun            21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     48     10
Parrot Head             21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     49      6
Sleeping in EQ          21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     52      7
All-American            21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     43      0
New Mexican Disaster    21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     49     10
Nakoma                  21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     52      6
Moliere                 21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     51      2
Blueintheface           21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     42     10
Flystripper             21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     52     10
creekster               21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     52     10
cougjunkie              21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     49      0
Commando                21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     52      0
Clark Addison           21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     44      6
clackamascoug           21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     17      3
chrisrenrut             21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     47     16
Joe Public              21  34.000   34   0.00   0.000     50      5

[pelagius]

Overall standings as of the Wagner game: Parrot Head still in charge.

                     rank   points  win     mov       df  games
poster                                                          
Parrot Head              1  541.246  238  171.60  131.646      8
CJF                      2  515.470  204  166.65  144.820      8
Copelius                 3  512.937  204  157.85  151.087      8
Bo Diddley               4  500.816  204  146.85  149.966      8
Donuthole                5  500.709  204  155.65  141.059      8
Uncle Ted                6  488.760  238  139.15  111.610      8
originalsocal            7  488.749  204  154.00  130.749      8
New Mexican Disaster     8  484.864  204  153.45  127.414      8
Topper                   9  482.934  204  154.55  124.384      8
Joe Public              10  479.941  204  139.15  136.791      8
San Juan Sun            11  472.621  204  172.70   95.921      8
Nakoma                  12  472.218  204  157.85  110.368      8
Jeff Lebowski           13  469.113  204  144.65  120.463      8
HuskyFreeNorthwest      14  452.960  204  127.05  121.910      8
PaloAltoCougar          15  452.665  204  152.35   96.315      8
chrisrenrut             16  452.180  238  103.95  110.230      8
creekster               17  445.746  204  136.95  104.796      8
Pelado                  18  431.741  204  116.05  111.691      8
imanihonjin             19  428.075  170  134.20  123.875      7
Sullyute                20  426.893  204  122.65  100.243      8
Sleeping in EQ          21  425.806  204  132.55   89.256      7
SCcoug                  22  425.640  204  121.00  100.640      8
The_Tick                23  424.255  238   93.50   92.755      8
LiveCoug                24  423.926  204  124.85   95.076      8
The_Douger              25  422.978  170  157.30   95.678      8
Blueintheface           26  403.655  204   90.75  108.905      8
All-American            27  401.624  204  105.05   92.574      8
Omaha 680               28  394.267  204   91.30   98.967      8
Clark Addison           29  392.316  204  103.40   84.916      8
Y84it                   30  387.008  170  135.30   81.708      7
DrumNFeather            31  385.588  204  106.70   74.888      8
cougjunkie              32  377.099  204  111.65   61.449      8
Flystripper             33  374.153  170  109.45   94.703      8
Goatnapper'96           34  369.875  204   81.40   84.475      8
hostile                 35  359.398  204   75.90   79.498      8
RC Vikings              36  322.989  170  101.20   51.789      7
bag                     37  291.270  102   84.70  104.570      5
Moliere                 38  285.723  170   70.95   44.773      7
LVAllen                 39  258.962  136   64.35   58.612      6
I.J. Reilly             40  224.415  102   61.05   61.365      5
TexTechCoug             41  203.143  136   37.95   29.193      6
byu71                   42  194.653  102   61.60   31.053      6
Green Monstah           43  179.226   68   41.80   69.426      4
splitbamboo             44  161.492   68   37.40   56.092      4
Crockett                45  160.473   68   39.60   52.873      2
wapiti                  46  159.761   68   48.95   42.811      4
falafel                 47  141.795   34   44.00   63.795      4
Commando                48  138.470  102    8.25   28.220      4
venkman                 49  127.254   68   38.50   20.754      3
wuapinmon               50  120.650   34   44.00   42.650      3
Non Sequitur            51  108.981   68    5.50   35.481      2
wally                   52   88.485   34   28.05   26.435      2
SandYFan                53   85.992   34   29.70   22.292      1
mpfunk                  54   82.425   68    0.00   14.425      5
Shaka                   55   75.065   34   29.70   11.365      1
Surfah                  56   63.278   34    8.25   21.028      1
eldiente                57   57.419   34   22.00    1.419      1
BYUMizzou               58   34.000   34    0.00    0.000      1
YOhio                   58   34.000   34    0.00    0.000      1
clackamascoug           58   34.000   34    0.00    0.000      1
CardiacCoug             61   12.475    0    0.00   12.475      1
Paperback Writer        62    8.250    0    8.25    0.000      1
BIgCatonProwl           63    1.706    0    0.00    1.706      1

[pelagius]

Overall standing sorted by poster name:

                      rank   points  win     mov       df  games
poster                                                          
All-American            27  401.624  204  105.05   92.574      8
bag                     37  291.270  102   84.70  104.570      5
BIgCatonProwl           63    1.706    0    0.00    1.706      1
Blueintheface           26  403.655  204   90.75  108.905      8
Bo Diddley               4  500.816  204  146.85  149.966      8
byu71                   42  194.653  102   61.60   31.053      6
BYUMizzou               58   34.000   34    0.00    0.000      1
CardiacCoug             61   12.475    0    0.00   12.475      1
chrisrenrut             16  452.180  238  103.95  110.230      8
CJF                      2  515.470  204  166.65  144.820      8
clackamascoug           58   34.000   34    0.00    0.000      1
Clark Addison           29  392.316  204  103.40   84.916      8
Commando                48  138.470  102    8.25   28.220      4
Copelius                 3  512.937  204  157.85  151.087      8
cougjunkie              32  377.099  204  111.65   61.449      8
creekster               17  445.746  204  136.95  104.796      8
Crockett                45  160.473   68   39.60   52.873      2
Donuthole                5  500.709  204  155.65  141.059      8
DrumNFeather            31  385.588  204  106.70   74.888      8
eldiente                57   57.419   34   22.00    1.419      1
falafel                 47  141.795   34   44.00   63.795      4
Flystripper             33  374.153  170  109.45   94.703      8
Goatnapper'96           34  369.875  204   81.40   84.475      8
Green Monstah           43  179.226   68   41.80   69.426      4
hostile                 35  359.398  204   75.90   79.498      8
HuskyFreeNorthwest      14  452.960  204  127.05  121.910      8
I.J. Reilly             40  224.415  102   61.05   61.365      5
imanihonjin             19  428.075  170  134.20  123.875      7
Jeff Lebowski           13  469.113  204  144.65  120.463      8
Joe Public              10  479.941  204  139.15  136.791      8
LiveCoug                24  423.926  204  124.85   95.076      8
LVAllen                 39  258.962  136   64.35   58.612      6
Moliere                 38  285.723  170   70.95   44.773      7
mpfunk                  54   82.425   68    0.00   14.425      5
Nakoma                  12  472.218  204  157.85  110.368      8
New Mexican Disaster     8  484.864  204  153.45  127.414      8
Non Sequitur            51  108.981   68    5.50   35.481      2
Omaha 680               28  394.267  204   91.30   98.967      8
originalsocal            7  488.749  204  154.00  130.749      8
PaloAltoCougar          15  452.665  204  152.35   96.315      8
Paperback Writer        62    8.250    0    8.25    0.000      1
Parrot Head              1  541.246  238  171.60  131.646      8
Pelado                  18  431.741  204  116.05  111.691      8
RC Vikings              36  322.989  170  101.20   51.789      7
San Juan Sun            11  472.621  204  172.70   95.921      8
SandYFan                53   85.992   34   29.70   22.292      1
SCcoug                  22  425.640  204  121.00  100.640      8
Shaka                   55   75.065   34   29.70   11.365      1
Sleeping in EQ          21  425.806  204  132.55   89.256      7
splitbamboo             44  161.492   68   37.40   56.092      4
Sullyute                20  426.893  204  122.65  100.243      8
Surfah                  56   63.278   34    8.25   21.028      1
TexTechCoug             41  203.143  136   37.95   29.193      6
The_Douger              25  422.978  170  157.30   95.678      8
The_Tick                23  424.255  238   93.50   92.755      8
Topper                   9  482.934  204  154.55  124.384      8
Uncle Ted                6  488.760  238  139.15  111.610      8
venkman                 49  127.254   68   38.50   20.754      3
wally                   52   88.485   34   28.05   26.435      2
wapiti                  46  159.761   68   48.95   42.811      4
wuapinmon               50  120.650   34   44.00   42.650      3
Y84it                   30  387.008  170  135.30   81.708      7
YOhio                   58   34.000   34    0.00    0.000      1

[pelagius]

[pelagius]

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Top 15! Borderline football genius, I wonder if I've reached the point where Shaka will let me comment on football?

[San Juan Sun]

Top 15! Borderline football genius, I wonder if I've reached the point where Shaka will let me comment on football?

He's ranked #55. Don't think he'll be able to hear you from way down there.

[Bo Diddley]

Does anyone understand the formula? I have to admit, I went back and looked it up, and I still don't get it. I looked up diffuse priors, but I feel like a kindergartner reading about them.

[pelagius]

Does anyone understand the formula? I have to admit, I went back and looked it up, and I still don't get it. I looked up diffuse priors, but I feel like a kindergartner reading about them.

I do

[All-American]

Does anyone understand the formula? I have to admit, I went back and looked it up, and I still don't get it. I looked up diffuse priors, but I feel like a kindergartner reading about them.

It's just alphabetical.

[Bo Diddley]

I do

[pelagius]

Does anyone understand the formula? I have to admit, I went back and looked it up, and I still don't get it. I looked up diffuse priors, but I feel like a kindergartner reading about them.

The only formula related to diffuse priors is Lord Bayes' most wonderful formula. The prediction contest formula is not in any way related to diffuse priors.

[Bo Diddley]

The only formula related to diffuse priors is Lord Bayes' most wonderful formula. The prediction contest formula is not in any way related to diffuse priors.

Ok, if Bo pick closer to score, Bo do gooder on contest.

[pelagius]

Ok, if Bo pick closer to score, Bo do gooder on contest.

Yes, bo can get points three ways:

1. By picking the correct winner (34) points.

2. By his prediction being close in term of margin of victory (up to 33 points). But remember, the rewards drop off at an increasing rate. So the drop off from 9 to 12 points off is bigger than the drop from 0 to 3 points off.

3. Being close in a x,y coordinate sense. Think of your prediction as an x,y point and the actual score as an x,y point. If the distance between those two x,y points is small you get a lot of prediction points. (up to 33). Same sort of non-linearity in rewards as distance increaes.

[Bo Diddley]

Yes, bo can get points three ways:

1. By picking the correct winner (34) points.

2. By his prediction being close in term of margin of victory (up to 33 points). But remember, the rewards drop off at an increasing rate. So the drop off from 9 to 12 points off is bigger than the drop from 0 to 3 points off.

3. Being close in a x,y coordinate sense. Think of your prediction as an x,y point and the actual score as an x,y point. If the distance between those two x,y points is small you get a lot of prediction points. (up to 33). Same sort of non-linearity in rewards as distance increaes.

Thanks. That makes sense with the feedback the results are giving me. The points for picking the winner seems disconnected somewhat.