Revenge: Nothing Cavalier About It - BYU vs. UVA

[HBCoug]

i spoiled everyone by making it look easy

I was hoping you'd start the game thread referencing something from your hit single, "Meet Virginia."

[Donuthole]

I was hoping you'd start the game thread referencing something from your hit single, "Meet Virginia."

Nah. More like:

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Can we just agree right now that nobody can bitch about the game thread title without suggesting one that is clearly better? TIA.

Anything with a play on my username. Surfah understands.

[YOhio]

Anything with a play on my username. Surfah understands.

WahooFreeIntermountainWest would have been a killer thread title.

[Joe Public]

I was hoping for "You're Moving Your Horsey Wrong," "London's Bridge is Falling Down," or something related to fish tacos, but DH did fine.

Regarding the game, I saw some of that UCLA/UVA match-up from week 1. Virginia looked pretty solid, although UCLA is a big question mark right now. I think we'll have a better feel for them after they play Louisville this weekend. They seem to have a good defense.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I was hoping for "You're Moving Your Horsey Wrong," "London's Bridge is Falling Down," or something related to fish tacos, but DH did fine.

Regarding the game, I saw some of that UCLA/UVA match-up from week 1. Virginia looked pretty solid, although UCLA is a big question mark right now. I think we'll have a better feel for them after they play Louisville this weekend. They seem to have a good defense.

I doubt either will happen, but it would be swell if UVA could beat L'ville and Texas could beat the Bruins.

[Topper]

If wishes were horses ....

[Moliere]

So we have fourteen posts bitching about the thread title?

Sabre-rattling revenge!

Other than UVa playing UCLA close, what do we know about UVA football? It seems they have some tallish safeties, and last night's game made them think BYU is vulnerable.

http://chat.virginia.sportswar.com/m...12/5392707.php

That guy makes a good point. They should scheme to stop taysom. All they have to do is figure out a defense to slow down BYU's run and pass attacks and they will be able to beat us. Great strategy.

[Omaha 680]

Game will be on ESPN. No surprise with Virginia's win.

[UVACoug]

Virginia is a completely different team on the road than they are at home. They often will have a big win or two at home, but they rarely play well on the road. They have only won one road game in the last two seasons. Add the fact that they rarely play outside the Eastern time zone and I think BYU rolls. UCLA looked very suspect against Texas (a team we crushed in a tougher venue), and Louisville hasn't proven anything yet this season.

But then again, I thought BYU would roll in Charlottesville last season too, so what do I know.

[All-American]

Virginia is a completely different team on the road than they are at home. They often will have a big win or two at home, but they rarely play well on the road. They have only won one road game in the last two seasons. Add the fact that they rarely play outside the Eastern time zone and I think BYU rolls. UCLA looked very suspect against Texas (a team we crushed in a tougher venue), and Louisville hasn't proven anything yet this season.

But then again, I thought BYU would roll in Charlottesville last season too, so what do I know.

Also, they've only beaten one ranked team since 2011. That would be last week's win.

[pelagius]

Looks like the line is out so I will update my distributional predictions for the season. The early line for the game is like BYU -15. I haven't changed my before season assessment of BYU as basically quality rank = 20. If we hold that constant, and then plug in Sagarin's current linear MOV ratings (which are, of course, quite noisy and potentially biased at this point in the season ... also I will use what is implied by the betting for Virginia) we get something like the following:

                team  home  rank  mov   prob
0        Connecticut    -1   109   20  1.000
1              Texas     1    26    6  1.000
2            Houston     1    60   16  1.000
3           Virginia     1    68   15  0.857
4         Utah State     1    66   17  0.884
5    Central Florida    -1    49    6  0.672
6             Nevada     1    74   18  0.896
7        Boise State    -1    30    2  0.559
8   Middle Tennessee    -1    96   17  0.884
9               UNLV     1   116   27  0.962
10    Savannah State     1   244   59  0.990
11        California    -1    69   11  0.778

Not much has changed from last week's projection for BYU as rank = 20 (primarily because I had Houston as a 90% of winning). Slightly higher probability of going undefeated, a little bit higher for the one loss scenario as well, and a about 5 percentage points lower for the 2 loss scenario.

[pelagius]

Same thing as above, but this time we'll veer into the optimistic world and assume that BYU's true quality is rank = 10:

                 team  home  rank  mov   prob
0        Connecticut    -1   109   24  1.000
1              Texas     1    26   11  1.000
2            Houston     1    60   20  1.000
3           Virginia     1    68   15  0.857
4         Utah State     1    66   21  0.925
5    Central Florida    -1    49   10  0.767
6             Nevada     1    74   22  0.933
7        Boise State    -1    30    6  0.672
8   Middle Tennessee    -1    96   22  0.933
9               UNLV     1   116   31  0.976
10    Savannah State     1   244   63  0.990
11        California    -1    69   15  0.857

[YOhio]

[CJF]

Pelagius, why does Texas show as a home game in your code? Or am I reading it wrong?