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Do not submit a prediction score in this thread. It just explains the contest.
Each week a score of 100 is possible. Here is the formula:
If you don't like the formula, suggest something different. I might listen.
Format for scores:
---------------------
BYU|X
OPPONENT|Y
---------------------
First line of the post must be BYU and then the numerical score prediction. The second line must be the opponent name and the numerical score prediction. The data are collected by a little script I wrote so if you make things non-standard it makes it more likely that your prediction doesn't get counted. You must use the pipe delimiter (not a lower case "l", a "|") ... the script scans for the delimiter. The script doesn't care that you prefer a different delimiter. Don't add any other punctation. I am not going to check time stamps for predictions so your on your honor for not posting a prediction ex post. BYU or a reasonable variation (my view of reasonable, not yours) on the team name must be used or the script will not recognize (and hence record) your offering. You can use call the opponent anything you want (in case you like to mock the opponent via your choice of name).
FAQ
-----
1. Wow, did the formula remain the same?
A. Yeah, but I may change it to inject more noise. Maybe giving bonus points to weekly winners or something like that.
2. How is this formula different from the formula used years ago back when Parrot Head dominated?
See the following thread where I discuss the changes http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=61157 Here is Indy's explanation for the mathematically disadvantaged: "I think in a nutshell, it puts less emphasis on picking the correct winner and more emphasis on correctly predicting the score."
3. What is the optimal prediction score strategy?
Mimic Parrot Head until the final game. On the final game pick a different score than Parrot Head and hope you get lucky. (Note, I am assuming that FN Phat's performance was mostly due to luck.)
4. How will a tie breaker be determined?
A. There is no tie breaker provision
5. Where is the Utah contest?
A. Not sure about the Utah contest. Are we still doing a Utah contest?
6. Is there a cool prize?
A. Based on history, the probability of a cool prize is very low.
7. What happens if I post multiple predictions?
A. The script only stores your last prediction you post in a thread.
8. Can I post non-prediction content or commentary on my predictions in the prediction threads?
A. You can post other commentary in the threads. Just make sure the predictions come in the form of
BYU|X
OPP|Y
as the first two lines of the post.
9. Why do you run the contest if you hold it in such disdain?
A. Because I live in awful dread that Lebowski would try to run this contest using Excel.
10. I keep looking at that reference to "Euclidean distance" and assume that somewhere, someone is reading this and laughing so hard that a couple of pens fall out of their pocket protector. But, in fact, I have no idea if it is a joke or not. Is it a Joke?
No:
11. Do you have an inspirational quote that you can share with us?
Sure,
12. What is your favorite perl module on CPAN?
A. I've pretty much switched over to Python (although this contest still relies on a really quick perl script I wrote years ago); man, that pandas library is pretty great stuff.
13. What is your favorite Jane Austen character?
A. Catherine Morland ... Note this is the correct answer for everyone.
15. Why don't you make the script more general or flexible?
A. Still lazy
Do not submit a prediction score in this thread.
Each week a score of 100 is possible. Here is the formula:
Code:
Points = 34*winner + 33*f(|MOVD|) + 33*g(d(predicted,actual))
Winner = 1 if the winning team is correctly picked, 0 otherwise
MOVD = margin of victory diferrential: Predicted (MOV) - Actual(MOV)
d( , ) = Euclidean distance
f(x) = 1 - 0.75(x/15) if x <= 5,
= 1 - 1.00(x/15) if 4 < x <= 10
= 1 - 1.25(x/15) if 10 < x <= 12
= 0 if 15 < x
g(x) = 1 - 0.70(x/20) if x <= 5,
= 1 - 0.90(x/20) if 5 < x <= 10
= 1 - 1.15(x/20) if 10 < x <= 17
= 0 if 20 < x
Format for scores:
---------------------
BYU|X
OPPONENT|Y
---------------------
First line of the post must be BYU and then the numerical score prediction. The second line must be the opponent name and the numerical score prediction. The data are collected by a little script I wrote so if you make things non-standard it makes it more likely that your prediction doesn't get counted. You must use the pipe delimiter (not a lower case "l", a "|") ... the script scans for the delimiter. The script doesn't care that you prefer a different delimiter. Don't add any other punctation. I am not going to check time stamps for predictions so your on your honor for not posting a prediction ex post. BYU or a reasonable variation (my view of reasonable, not yours) on the team name must be used or the script will not recognize (and hence record) your offering. You can use call the opponent anything you want (in case you like to mock the opponent via your choice of name).
FAQ
-----
1. Wow, did the formula remain the same?
A. Yeah, but I may change it to inject more noise. Maybe giving bonus points to weekly winners or something like that.
2. How is this formula different from the formula used years ago back when Parrot Head dominated?
See the following thread where I discuss the changes http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=61157 Here is Indy's explanation for the mathematically disadvantaged: "I think in a nutshell, it puts less emphasis on picking the correct winner and more emphasis on correctly predicting the score."
3. What is the optimal prediction score strategy?
Mimic Parrot Head until the final game. On the final game pick a different score than Parrot Head and hope you get lucky. (Note, I am assuming that FN Phat's performance was mostly due to luck.)
4. How will a tie breaker be determined?
A. There is no tie breaker provision
5. Where is the Utah contest?
A. Not sure about the Utah contest. Are we still doing a Utah contest?
6. Is there a cool prize?
A. Based on history, the probability of a cool prize is very low.
7. What happens if I post multiple predictions?
A. The script only stores your last prediction you post in a thread.
8. Can I post non-prediction content or commentary on my predictions in the prediction threads?
A. You can post other commentary in the threads. Just make sure the predictions come in the form of
BYU|X
OPP|Y
as the first two lines of the post.
9. Why do you run the contest if you hold it in such disdain?
A. Because I live in awful dread that Lebowski would try to run this contest using Excel.
10. I keep looking at that reference to "Euclidean distance" and assume that somewhere, someone is reading this and laughing so hard that a couple of pens fall out of their pocket protector. But, in fact, I have no idea if it is a joke or not. Is it a Joke?
No:
11. Do you have an inspirational quote that you can share with us?
Sure,
God is hidden from us outside His Word. But He is manifest to us in Jesus Christ. If we look past Him, we must not be surprised if we fail to find God and experience errors and disillusionments, if the world seems dark to us. When we believe, we must believe in spite of God’s hiddenness. This hiddenness of God necessarily reminds us of our human limitation. We do not believe out of our personal reason and power. Anyone who really believes knows that. The greatest hindrance to faith is again and again just the pride and anxiety of our human hearts. We would rather not live by grace. Something within us energetically rebels against it. We do not wish to receive grace; at best we prefer to give ourselves grace. This swing to and from between pride and anxiety is man’s life. Faith bursts through them both. --Karl Barth
12. What is your favorite perl module on CPAN?
A. I've pretty much switched over to Python (although this contest still relies on a really quick perl script I wrote years ago); man, that pandas library is pretty great stuff.
13. What is your favorite Jane Austen character?
A. Catherine Morland ... Note this is the correct answer for everyone.
15. Why don't you make the script more general or flexible?
A. Still lazy
Do not submit a prediction score in this thread.
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