2013 Massey ratings are out

[Jeff Lebowski]

BYU rated #23:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=FBS

Seems awfully generous.

A quick Monte Carlo analysis of the game-by-game probabilities:

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=891&s=199231

shows the following:

Most likely record: 8.2 W, 3.8 L

# Losses	Prob
0	0.6%
1	4.6%
2	13.6%
3	25.8%
4	26.0%
5	18.3%
6	8.1%
7	2.4%
8	0.6%
9	0.0%
10	0.0%
11	0.0%
12	0.0%

[Jeff Lebowski]

Monte Carlo analysis for Utah 2013:

Predicted record: 5.2 W, 6.8 L

# Losses	Prob
0	0.0%
1	0.0%
2	0.2%
3	1.0%
4	4.1%
5	12.2%
6	22.8%
7	26.9%
8	21.0%
9	9.4%
10	2.3%
11	0.2%
12	0.0%

Only given 5% odds of beating Oregon. Ouch.

[Uncle Ted]

An 100% chance of beating Idaho State!

[PaloAltoCougar]

Am I reading it correctly that BYU should be favored in each of its first eight games, except for Utah State? Odd.

[pelagius]

BYU rated #23:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=FBS

Seems awfully generous.

Well, it looks like basically a weighted average of the two models embedded in the Massey ranking system (maybe with other past years thrown in too). The end of 2012 ranking on Massey was 26. I believe Massey imposes some sort of empirical bayes adjustment to get to 26 relative to the underlying unadjusted model. Its non-adjusted ranking was 18 (the power ranking). It may simply be a weighted average of those two rankings (but there is probably also an adjustment for years further back but they get less weight). So it looks like it simply assumes BYU will be roughly of the same quality this year as last (virtually all the computer models do this same thing for beginning of year ratings since they have no insight beyond that at the beginning of the season).

[Blueintheface]

I will take 8-4 as a successful season given this schedule.

[Indy Coug]

I will take 8-4 as a successful season given this schedule.

Especially given the current death watch underway.

[Blueintheface]

I take great comfort in knowing that if BYU and Utah played 5 times BYU would win 4 times.

[il Padrino Ute]

I take great comfort in knowing that if BYU and Utah played 5 times BYU would win 4 times.

Like the last 5 years?

[Eddie]

Like the last 5 years?

Unfortunately BYU only played Utah once each of those years. Ya'll would've been very VERY sad had they actually played 5 times.

(And NO. The fact that they replayed the final play 3 times last year is not the same has having played the game 3 times. It just isn't.)

[Jeff Lebowski]

I wish it were true, but that 80% number for the BYU-Utah game is nuts.

[Eddie]

I wish it were true, but that 80% number for the BYU-Utah game is nuts.

I'm digging the 55% number for Texas too. Not that I don't think BYU can win that game - but I was pretty sure I was being either overly optimistic or irrational in thinking that.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I'm digging the 55% number for Texas too. Not that I don't think BYU can win that game - but I was pretty sure I was being either overly optimistic or irrational in thinking that.

Yes, I was expecting something more along the lines of 7-5 or 6-6 given the strength of schedule. But given that Indy predicted nothing less than the death of the BYU football program, I think I am still being optimistic.

[Blueintheface]

Like the last 5 years?

doublefacepalm.jpg

[Indy Coug]

Yes, I was expecting something more along the lines of 7-5 or 6-6 given the strength of schedule. But given that Indy predicted nothing less than the death of the BYU football program, I think I am still being optimistic.

The unexpected return of KVN and Hoffman has significantly improved the prognosis for the 2013 season. Maybe it will merely be a near fatal wounding.