The ACC Expansion Groundswell

[Jeff Lebowski]

Hmmmm.....

Please note that L'ville chose the ACC, notwithstanding the widespread belief that they were B12's #1 expansion choice. The top of the BE is consolidating in the ACC, which is a premiere b-ball conference with several storied football programs (though they are down as of late), which, in my opinion, makes it far less likely that it will be the conference that is carved up. Please also note that the B12 has lost 33% of its conference and had to add a team from a non-AQ conference to get to 10 (which is 2 less than it's name indicates). It is less stable; it has "image" problems; and it is jerked around by one University of Texas.

Thus, it's more likely that the B12 folds than the ACC.

If we go to 4 16-team superconferences, geographically only the Pac-12 makes sense, but I refuse to believe we have a shot at getting in while Stanford, Berkeley, UCLA, and University of Washington are in the conference. If B12 goes by the wayside, what are our other options? B10 is the closest, but we're not an AAU school. SEC? seems unlikely. ACC? How much sense does it make to have a Rocky-Mountain school in the Atlantic Coast Conference. And finally, the LDS church loves it some independence. Even if the B12 survives superconferences (and I don't think it does), I'm not sure the powers that be want in.

How is the B12 going to fold? Lay out the scenario for me.

[Coach McGuirk]

How is the B12 going to fold? Lay out the scenario for me.

It would have done so already.

[Green Monstah]

How is the B12 going to fold? Lay out the scenario for me.

By admission, we're going to four superconferences, correct? Which of the five remaining BCS conferences is the weakest? That's the B12. The only way they get stronger is by adding non-BCS schools. If that's not a sign of desperation, I don't know what is.

B12 will dissolve the same way it has ini the last two year. People jump ship. Yes, there is the issue of TV rights/exit penalties, etc. There seems to always be enough money/excellent lawyers to get around those type of issues (see, e.g., the Big East and ACC exit penalties).

You want dates/order/teams? I can't say (just like I wouldn't have imagined MD would be a B10 school).

[YOhio]

By admission, we're going to four superconferences, correct? Which of the five remaining BCS conferences is the weakest? That's the B12. The only way they get stronger is by adding non-BCS schools. If that's not a sign of desperation, I don't know what is.

B12 will dissolve the same way it has ini the last two year. People jump ship. Yes, there is the issue of TV rights/exit penalties, etc. There seems to always be enough money/excellent lawyers to get around those type of issues (see, e.g., the Big East and ACC exit penalties).

You want dates/order/teams? I can't say (just like I wouldn't have imagined MD would be a B10 school).

Why do you think the Big 12 is the weakest? They make a ton of money and they're the most competitive league outside the SEC. It seems to me like they're among the strongest.

[Green Monstah]

It would have done so already.

It doesn't have to be a discreet, singular event. The decomposition of the B12 is already well on its way. Just because theres is still some flesh on the bone doesn't mean it isn't going to become wormfood.

[Jeff Lebowski]

By admission, we're going to four superconferences, correct? Which of the five remaining BCS conferences is the weakest? That's the B12. The only way they get stronger is by adding non-BCS schools. If that's not a sign of desperation, I don't know what is.

B12 will dissolve the same way it has ini the last two year. People jump ship. Yes, there is the issue of TV rights/exit penalties, etc. There seems to always be enough money/excellent lawyers to get around those type of issues (see, e.g., the Big East and ACC exit penalties).

You want dates/order/teams? I can't say (just like I wouldn't have imagined MD would be a B10 school).

Possible. But I doubt it.

[Green Monstah]

Why do you think the Big 12 is the weakest? They make a ton of money and they're the most competitive league outside the SEC. It seems to me like they're among the strongest.

They have lost 33% of their conference in the last two years. They are contracting while everyone else is expanding. They have solid athletic programs that will be nicely suited for continued success in the other conferences. If the B12 is a strong confederation, I find it curious that NB, aTm, Mizzou and Colorado all chose to leave.

[Scratch]

By admission, we're going to four superconferences, correct? Which of the five remaining BCS conferences is the weakest? That's the B12. The only way they get stronger is by adding non-BCS schools. If that's not a sign of desperation, I don't know what is.

B12 will dissolve the same way it has ini the last two year. People jump ship. Yes, there is the issue of TV rights/exit penalties, etc. There seems to always be enough money/excellent lawyers to get around those type of issues (see, e.g., the Big East and ACC exit penalties).

You want dates/order/teams? I can't say (just like I wouldn't have imagined MD would be a B10 school).

The B12 is almost certainly the least desirable of the 5 (P12, B1G, SEC, ACC, and B12). Part of that is the fact that it is dominated by Texas. However, the reason the B12 is more likely to survive than the ACC is that from top to bottom, the ACC schools are more attractive expansion targets than the B12 schools, and any team in either the ACC or B12 outside the Oklahoma-Texas corridor would jump to the SEC or B1G in a heartbeat. This means that the ACC is the league that is most likely to get poached, which will end up with the best of the ACC's leftovers holding their noses and going to the B12, with the worst of the ACC's leftovers winding up in whatever conference emerges from the slop that is dominating the eastern conference landscape right now.

[Scratch]

It doesn't have to be a discreet, singular event. The decomposition of the B12 is already well on its way. Just because theres is still some flesh on the bone doesn't mean it isn't going to become wormfood.

The B12 decomposition has not begun and will not occur as long as Texas and OU want it to survive. As I mentioned, it is also bolstered by the fact that there are a bunch of ACC schools that are more attractive to the B1G and SEC than the best non-OU/UT B12 schools.

[dabrockster]

They have lost 33% of their conference in the last two years. They are contracting while everyone else is expanding. They have solid athletic programs that will be nicely suited for continued success in the other conferences. If the B12 is a strong confederation, I find it curious that NB, aTm, Mizzou and Colorado all chose to leave.

I'd say that the 33% that left were not the elite of the conference either.. In fact, I'd say adding TCU was much better then UC and Mizzou.


They were not the breadwinners of the league.. So them leaving I think does not impact the conference as much as you would like to think...

[The_Douger]

The B12 is almost certainly the least desirable of the 5 (P12, B1G, SEC, ACC, and B12). Part of that is the fact that it is dominated by Texas. However, the reason the B12 is more likely to survive than the ACC is that from top to bottom, the ACC schools are more attractive expansion targets than the B12 schools, and any team in either the ACC or B12 outside the Oklahoma-Texas corridor would jump to the SEC or B1G in a heartbeat. This means that the ACC is the league that is most likely to get poached, which will end up with the best of the ACC's leftovers holding their noses and going to the B12, with the worst of the ACC's leftovers winding up in whatever conference emerges from the slop that is dominating the eastern conference landscape right now.

If it was the least attractice, then why are there rumors of the B12 poaching the ACC?

The ACC is much more likely to get torn up through this than the B12.

[YOhio]

They have lost 33% of their conference in the last two years. They are contracting while everyone else is expanding. They have solid athletic programs that will be nicely suited for continued success in the other conferences. If the B12 is a strong confederation, I find it curious that NB, aTm, Mizzou and Colorado all chose to leave.

The money they're making is incredible. According to Dennis Dodd it will be over $30M/school in a couple of years.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/dennis-dodd/21177715/why-the-big-12-is-happy-with-10-amid-the-latest-round-of-realignment

[Scratch]

If it was the least attractice, then why are there rumors of the B12 poaching the ACC?

The ACC is much more likely to get torn up through this than the B12.

The rumors of the B12 poaching it just about all deal with the ACC getting ripped up by the SEC and B1G first. There's a reason no ACC school has gone to the B12 and the B12 has had to turn to BE schools for replacements; as long as the ACC is in tact in a manner that comes close to its current makeup those schools aren't leaving it for the B12.

[Scratch]

The money they're making is incredible. According to Dennis Dodd it will be over $30M/school in a couple of years.


http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoot...of-realignment

First, I'm not sure it will be that high, and second, even if it is that high, that's going to be about normal or even a bit less than the P12, SEC, and B1G.

[New Mexican Disaster]

This is in answer to what scenario would deconstruct the Big 12.The ACC could lure West Virginia away ( am sure that they would rather be there anyway). The Big 10 could come calling for Kansas. Texas could revive the PAC-16, maybe.

I thnk that is why the conferences are adding so many teams in an effort to survive potential attrition. If I were the Big 12 I would invite a couple just to insure your position.