BYU v. Georgia Tech - Predictions

[pelagius]

Game 9 of the BYU prediction contest. The first two lines of a prediction post should take the following form:

BYU|X
Tech|Y

The delimiter is a pipe/vertical bar (|). Remember, it is not a lower case L (l). The pipe/vertical bar key can usually be found above the enter key on your keyboard (as in SHIFT-\). That formatting is important because the data are gathered via automated script. BYU or a reasonable variation* on the team name must be used or the script will not recognize (and hence record) your offering.

*Where reasonable variation is defined by me. Not anyone else.

[FN Phat]

BYU|34
Tech|13

[lambdacoug]

BYU|20
GT|13

[wuapinmon]

BYU|27
GaTech|0

[Blueintheface]

BYU|21
GTECH|20

[Jarid in Cedar]

I need to know more about GT's defense to make a call here. Are they bad enough to make Riley look like a badass?

[pelagius]

I need to know more about GT's defense to make a call here. Are they bad enough to make Riley look like a badass?

I did a points allowed based computer model to rank defense (similar to what MOV based computer models do for overall team rating) and compared them to Nelson's EFF against similar teams:

Georgia Tech ~ 100

. list year drank opponent eff if qb == "Nelson" & drank > 80 & drank <= 120

     +--------------------------------------+
     | year   drank        opponent     eff |
     |--------------------------------------|
275. | 2011      91         Utah St     205 |
276. | 2011      86     San Jose St   155.4 |
282. | 2011     114          Hawaii   176.7 |
284. | 2012      90   Washington St   154.3 |
     +--------------------------------------+


. summ eff if qb == "Nelson" & drank > 80 & drank <= 120

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
         eff |         4      172.85     23.7841      154.3        205

Compared to Max Hall against that same class of teams:

     +-------------------------------------+
     | year   drank       opponent     eff |
     |-------------------------------------|
223. | 2007      89           UNLV   109.9 |
224. | 2007      92   E Washington      98 |
225. | 2007     116    Colorado St   205.7 |
235. | 2008     112        Utah St     138 |
246. | 2009     105    Colorado St   140.8 |
     |-------------------------------------|
248. | 2009     117           UNLV   201.8 |
     +-------------------------------------+

summ eff if qb == "Hall" & drank > 80 & drank <= 120

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
         eff |         6    149.0333    45.43297         98      205.7

[Flystripper]

BYU|17
GT|20

[chrisrenrut]

BYU|24
GT|27

[Bo Diddley]

BYU|21
GT|13

[Jeff Lebowski]

BYU|17
GT|28

Capitulation.

[pelagius]

BYU|17
GT|28

Capitulation.

So in the week after BYU beat the market's expectation for margin of victory by 11 points and your own by 15 points, you update by predicting a margin of victory 9 points worse than the market's expectation. So a prediction about 1 standard deviation worse than the market's expectation. Good call.

[Jeff Lebowski]

So in the week after BYU beat the market's expectation for margin of victory by 11 points and your own by 15 points, you update by predicting a margin of victory 9 points worse than the market's expectation. So a prediction about 1 standard deviation worse than the market's expectation. Good call.

Hey! Let me wallow in my misery, Mr. Smarty Pants.

I will admit I did zero research to make my prediction. Haven't a clue how GT is doing this year. The sad thing is, I just don't care that much.

[BlueNtheFace]

BYU|17
Tech|14

[BoylenOver]

BYU|27
Wramblin Reck|24