Announcement

**pelagius** · 08-31-2012, 01:16 PM

Standings sorted by poster name:

Code:

  +------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |               poster   rank   total   points   win     mov      df   bpred   opred |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |         All-American     24   48.24    48.24    34    4.40    9.84      31      20 |
  |            Applejack     34   43.67    43.67    34    0.00    9.67      28      20 |
  |        atheistcougar     40   40.58    40.58    34    4.40    2.18      35      24 |
  |            Aversator     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      48      39 |
  |                  bag     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      31      27 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          BemidjiCoug     22   48.80    48.80    34   14.30    0.50      38      24 |
  |             BigPiney     12   66.64    66.64    34   21.78   10.86      36      18 |
  |            bluegoose     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      31      27 |
  |        Blueintheface     23   48.30    48.30    34   14.30    0.00      41      27 |
  |         BlueNtheFace     64   35.26    35.26    34    0.00    1.26      33      25 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |           Bo Diddley     18   50.39    50.39    34    2.20   14.19      27      17 |
  |                 Borg     29   44.40    44.40    34    2.20    8.20      31      21 |
  |           BoylenOver     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      24      28 |
  |                Brian     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00       0       0 |
  |        bronson_tyler     10   67.60    67.60    34   19.91   13.69      34      17 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                byu71     29   44.40    44.40    34    2.20    8.20      31      21 |
  |             camleish     13   64.17    64.17    34   18.04   12.13      34      18 |
  |          CardiacCoug     10   67.60    67.60    34   19.91   13.69      34      17 |
  |          chrisrenrut     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      28      41 |
  |                  CJF     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      27      24 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        Clark Addison     62   36.20    36.20    34    2.20    0.00      38      28 |
  |        Coach McGuirk     36   41.87    41.87    34    0.00    7.87      24      20 |
  |    Color Me Badd Fan     20   50.19    50.19    34    8.80    7.39      34      21 |
  |             Commando      5   71.82    71.82    34   31.68    6.14      42      17 |
  |            creekster     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      34      33 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              Danimal     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      27      24 |
  |             Devildog     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      24      31 |
  |            Donuthole     29   44.40    44.40    34    2.20    8.20      31      21 |
  |         DrumNFeather     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      23      27 |
  |           Drunk Tank     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      27      24 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               DU Ute     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      17      24 |
  |             ERCougar      2   75.60    75.60    34   19.91   21.69      31      14 |
  |              falafel     42   40.34    40.34    34    0.00    6.34      24      21 |
  |               fbguru     14   63.08    63.08    34   14.30   14.78      31      17 |
  |          Flystripper     36   41.87    41.87    34    0.00    7.87      24      20 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              FN Phat     38   41.81    41.81    34    0.00    7.81      17      14 |
  |        Goatnapper'96      3   73.60    73.60    34   29.04   10.56      38      17 |
  |             happyone     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      35      31 |
  |              hostile     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      27      24 |
  |   HuskyFreeNorthwest     35   42.20    42.20    34    0.00    8.20      29      21 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            Indy Coug     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      38      31 |
  |       Jarid in Cedar     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      31      38 |
  |        Jeff Lebowski     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      28      27 |
  |           Joe Public     64   35.26    35.26    34    0.00    1.26      33      25 |
  |             kccougar     53   37.30    37.30    34    0.00    3.30      30      24 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |           kimchicoug     42   40.34    40.34    34    0.00    6.34      24      21 |
  |              LA Coug     62   36.20    36.20    34    2.20    0.00      38      28 |
  |             LiveCoug     16   55.78    55.78    34   21.78    0.00      42      24 |
  |         Lost_Student     42   40.34    40.34    34    0.00    6.34      24      21 |
  |              Maximus     29   44.40    44.40    34    2.20    8.20      31      21 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          Medfordcoug     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      42      36 |
  |              Moliere     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      35      31 |
  |     Mormon Red Death     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      38      42 |
  | New Mexican Disaster     28   46.39    46.39    34    6.60    5.79      34      22 |
  |       NorthShoreCoug     24   48.24    48.24    34    4.40    9.84      31      20 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            Omaha 680      9   68.84    68.84    34   21.78   13.06      35      17 |
  |            OrangeUte     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      30      28 |
  |        originalsocal     51   38.40    38.40    34    4.40    0.00      38      27 |
  |       PaloAltoCougar     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      33      24 |
  |          Parrot Head     49   38.78    38.78    34    2.20    2.58      34      24 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               Pelado      7   70.62    70.62    34   14.30   22.32      27      13 |
  |           pellegrino     54   37.25    37.25    34    0.00    3.25      31      24 |
  |           Rickomatic     15   63.04    63.04    34   29.04    0.00      45      24 |
  |         San Juan Sun     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      30      26 |
  |               SCcoug     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      34      28 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              Scorcho     52   38.18    38.18    34    0.00    4.18      26      23 |
  |              scottie     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      27      26 |
  |       Sleeping in EQ     18   50.39    50.39    34    2.20   14.19      27      17 |
  |    smokymountainrain     39   40.60    40.60    34    6.60    0.00      48      36 |
  |              snowcat     24   48.24    48.24    34    4.40    9.84      31      20 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                Solon     20   50.19    50.19    34    8.80    7.39      34      21 |
  |               sparky     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      34      31 |
  |              statman      6   71.01    71.01    34   21.78   15.23      34      16 |
  |            SteelBlue     47   39.54    39.54    34    0.00    5.54      21      20 |
  |             Sullyute     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      32      31 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               Surfah     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      27      24 |
  |          TexTechCoug      1   78.86    78.86    34   21.78   23.08      31      13 |
  |   The Fourth Nephite     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      17      32 |
  |           The_Douger     27   46.86    46.86    34    0.00   12.86      23      16 |
  |             The_Tick     40   40.58    40.58    34    4.40    2.18      35      24 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          thesaint258     29   44.40    44.40    34    2.20    8.20      31      21 |
  |              Top Ute     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      41      33 |
  |               Topper     42   40.34    40.34    34    0.00    6.34      24      21 |
  |            Uncle Ted     42   40.34    40.34    34    0.00    6.34      24      21 |
  |             USU Coug     48   38.90    38.90    34    0.00    4.90      31      23 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              UteStar      7   70.62    70.62    34   14.30   22.32      27      13 |
  |               Viking      4   72.00    72.00    34   33.00    5.00      42      18 |
  |                wally     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      27      24 |
  |            wuapinmon     17   52.18    52.18    34    8.80    9.38      33      20 |
  |                YOhio     49   38.78    38.78    34    2.20    2.58      34      24 |
  +------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

**pelagius** · 08-31-2012, 01:22 PM

For those that don't want to look it up, Parrot Head had a disappointing showing. His rank is currently 49th and he only received 38.78 points.

**pelagius** · 08-31-2012, 01:24 PM

Prediction summary stats:

Code:

    variable |      mean       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------
       bpred |     31.07     31.00     27.00     34.00      0.00     48.00
       opred |     23.53     24.00     20.00     27.00      0.00     42.00
      winner |      0.90      1.00      1.00      1.00      0.00      1.00
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Blueintheface** · 08-31-2012, 01:32 PM

Let me tell you why I suck as a score predictor. Let's say I go onto Pelagius' prediction contest thread, let's say I'm even remotely interested in doing well. Well then I get all excited. I'm like Jojo the idiot circus boy with a pretty new pet. Now the pet is my possible score. Hello there pretty little pet, I love you. And then I stroke it, and I pet it, and I massage it. Hehe I love it, I love my little naughty pet. You're naughty! And then I take my naughty pet and I go...Uuuuuuh! I killed it! I killed my score! And that's when I blow it. That's when people like us have gotta forge ahead, Pelagius. Am I right?

**pelagius** · 08-31-2012, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by Blueintheface View Post

Let me tell you why I suck as a score predictor. Let's say I go onto Pelagius' prediction contest thread, let's say I'm even remotely interested in doing well. Well then I get all excited. I'm like Jojo the idiot circus boy with a pretty new pet. Now the pet is my possible score. Hello there pretty little pet, I love you. And then I stroke it, and I pet it, and I massage it. Hehe I love it, I love my little naughty pet. You're naughty! And then I take my naughty pet and I go...Uuuuuuh! I killed it! I killed my score! And that's when I blow it. That's when people like us have gotta forge ahead, Pelagius. Am I right?

I don't have much advice for your Lennie like impulses but you should forge ahead. You're in 23th and game to game prediction score variance is going to be much higher this time because of the changed formula.

**Bo Diddley** · 08-31-2012, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by pelagius View Post

Results sorted by Washington State prediction points:

Code:

 +------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |               poster   rank   total   points   win     mov      df   bpred   opred |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          TexTechCoug      1   78.86    78.86    34   21.78   23.08      31      13 |
  |             ERCougar      2   75.60    75.60    34   19.91   21.69      31      14 |
  |        Goatnapper'96      3   73.60    73.60    34   29.04   10.56      38      17 |
  |               Viking      4   72.00    72.00    34   33.00    5.00      42      18 |
  |             Commando      5   71.82    71.82    34   31.68    6.14      42      17 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              statman      6   71.01    71.01    34   21.78   15.23      34      16 |
  |              UteStar      7   70.62    70.62    34   14.30   22.32      27      13 |
  |               Pelado      7   70.62    70.62    34   14.30   22.32      27      13 |
  |            Omaha 680      9   68.84    68.84    34   21.78   13.06      35      17 |
  |        bronson_tyler     10   67.60    67.60    34   19.91   13.69      34      17 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          CardiacCoug     10   67.60    67.60    34   19.91   13.69      34      17 |
  |             BigPiney     12   66.64    66.64    34   21.78   10.86      36      18 |
  |             camleish     13   64.17    64.17    34   18.04   12.13      34      18 |
  |               fbguru     14   63.08    63.08    34   14.30   14.78      31      17 |
  |           Rickomatic     15   63.04    63.04    34   29.04    0.00      45      24 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             LiveCoug     16   55.78    55.78    34   21.78    0.00      42      24 |
  |            wuapinmon     17   52.18    52.18    34    8.80    9.38      33      20 |
  |       Sleeping in EQ     18   50.39    50.39    34    2.20   14.19      27      17 |
  |           Bo Diddley     18   50.39    50.39    34    2.20   14.19      27      17 |
  |    Color Me Badd Fan     20   50.19    50.19    34    8.80    7.39      34      21 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                Solon     20   50.19    50.19    34    8.80    7.39      34      21 |
  |          BemidjiCoug     22   48.80    48.80    34   14.30    0.50      38      24 |
  |        Blueintheface     23   48.30    48.30    34   14.30    0.00      41      27 |
  |         All-American     24   48.24    48.24    34    4.40    9.84      31      20 |
  |              snowcat     24   48.24    48.24    34    4.40    9.84      31      20 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       NorthShoreCoug     24   48.24    48.24    34    4.40    9.84      31      20 |
  |           The_Douger     27   46.86    46.86    34    0.00   12.86      23      16 |
  | New Mexican Disaster     28   46.39    46.39    34    6.60    5.79      34      22 |
  |              Maximus     29   44.40    44.40    34    2.20    8.20      31      21 |
  |                 Borg     29   44.40    44.40    34    2.20    8.20      31      21 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          thesaint258     29   44.40    44.40    34    2.20    8.20      31      21 |
  |                byu71     29   44.40    44.40    34    2.20    8.20      31      21 |
  |            Donuthole     29   44.40    44.40    34    2.20    8.20      31      21 |
  |            Applejack     34   43.67    43.67    34    0.00    9.67      28      20 |
  |   HuskyFreeNorthwest     35   42.20    42.20    34    0.00    8.20      29      21 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          Flystripper     36   41.87    41.87    34    0.00    7.87      24      20 |
  |        Coach McGuirk     36   41.87    41.87    34    0.00    7.87      24      20 |
  |              FN Phat     38   41.81    41.81    34    0.00    7.81      17      14 |
  |    smokymountainrain     39   40.60    40.60    34    6.60    0.00      48      36 |
  |        atheistcougar     40   40.58    40.58    34    4.40    2.18      35      24 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             The_Tick     40   40.58    40.58    34    4.40    2.18      35      24 |
  |           kimchicoug     42   40.34    40.34    34    0.00    6.34      24      21 |
  |               Topper     42   40.34    40.34    34    0.00    6.34      24      21 |
  |         Lost_Student     42   40.34    40.34    34    0.00    6.34      24      21 |
  |            Uncle Ted     42   40.34    40.34    34    0.00    6.34      24      21 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              falafel     42   40.34    40.34    34    0.00    6.34      24      21 |
  |            SteelBlue     47   39.54    39.54    34    0.00    5.54      21      20 |
  |             USU Coug     48   38.90    38.90    34    0.00    4.90      31      23 |
  |          Parrot Head     49   38.78    38.78    34    2.20    2.58      34      24 |
  |                YOhio     49   38.78    38.78    34    2.20    2.58      34      24 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        originalsocal     51   38.40    38.40    34    4.40    0.00      38      27 |
  |              Scorcho     52   38.18    38.18    34    0.00    4.18      26      23 |
  |             kccougar     53   37.30    37.30    34    0.00    3.30      30      24 |
  |           pellegrino     54   37.25    37.25    34    0.00    3.25      31      24 |
  |           Drunk Tank     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      27      24 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       PaloAltoCougar     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      33      24 |
  |              Danimal     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      27      24 |
  |                  CJF     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      27      24 |
  |               Surfah     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      27      24 |
  |              hostile     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      27      24 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                wally     55   36.89    36.89    34    0.00    2.89      27      24 |
  |        Clark Addison     62   36.20    36.20    34    2.20    0.00      38      28 |
  |              LA Coug     62   36.20    36.20    34    2.20    0.00      38      28 |
  |           Joe Public     64   35.26    35.26    34    0.00    1.26      33      25 |
  |         BlueNtheFace     64   35.26    35.26    34    0.00    1.26      33      25 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              Top Ute     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      41      33 |
  |             happyone     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      35      31 |
  |             Sullyute     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      32      31 |
  |                  bag     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      31      27 |
  |               SCcoug     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      34      28 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          Medfordcoug     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      42      36 |
  |            creekster     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      34      33 |
  |         San Juan Sun     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      30      26 |
  |              Moliere     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      35      31 |
  |            OrangeUte     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      30      28 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            Aversator     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      48      39 |
  |            bluegoose     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      31      27 |
  |        Jeff Lebowski     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      28      27 |
  |               sparky     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      34      31 |
  |            Indy Coug     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      38      31 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              scottie     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      27      26 |
  |           BoylenOver     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      24      28 |
  |          chrisrenrut     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      28      41 |
  |         DrumNFeather     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      23      27 |
  |                Brian     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00       0       0 |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       Jarid in Cedar     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      31      38 |
  |             Devildog     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      24      31 |
  |     Mormon Red Death     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      38      42 |
  |               DU Ute     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      17      24 |
  |   The Fourth Nephite     82    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      17      32 |
  +------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

It's clear to me that Sleeping in EQ's strategy is to wait for my prediction and then copy it, yet he's listed first in the rankings.

**Lost Student** · 08-31-2012, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by Blueintheface View Post

Let me tell you why I suck as a score predictor. Let's say I go onto Pelagius' prediction contest thread, let's say I'm even remotely interested in doing well. Well then I get all excited. I'm like Jojo the idiot circus boy with a pretty new pet. Now the pet is my possible score. Hello there pretty little pet, I love you. And then I stroke it, and I pet it, and I massage it. Hehe I love it, I love my little naughty pet. You're naughty! And then I take my naughty pet and I go...Uuuuuuh! I killed it! I killed my score! And that's when I blow it. That's when people like us have gotta forge ahead, Pelagius. Am I right?

Great. I started reading in Chris's voice as soon as I finished "Let me tell you why I . . ."

**pellegrino** · 08-31-2012, 02:46 PM

I'm always so far down on the list that I can't match up my results with the column headers.

**pelagius** · 08-31-2012, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by pellegrino View Post

I'm always so far down on the list that I can't match up my results with the column headers.

Code:

  +------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |               poster   rank   total   points   win     mov      df   bpred   opred |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               Pelado      7   70.62    70.62    34   14.30   22.32      27      13 |
  |           pellegrino     54   37.25    37.25    34    0.00    3.25      31      24 |
  |           Rickomatic     15   63.04    63.04    34   29.04    0.00      45      24 |
  |         San Juan Sun     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      30      26 |
  |               SCcoug     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      34      28 |
  +------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

**creekster** · 08-31-2012, 03:00 PM

I am tied for 66!!! unlike all those losers tied for 82, I have a chance!

**pellegrino** · 08-31-2012, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by pelagius View Post

Code:

  +------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |               poster   rank   total   points   win     mov      df   bpred   opred |
  |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               Pelado      7   70.62    70.62    34   14.30   22.32      27      13 |
  |           pellegrino     54   37.25    37.25    34    0.00    3.25      31      24 |
  |           Rickomatic     15   63.04    63.04    34   29.04    0.00      45      24 |
  |         San Juan Sun     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      30      26 |
  |               SCcoug     66   34.00    34.00    34    0.00    0.00      34      28 |
  +------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

you are most kind, but now I'm even more confused as to why Rickomatic is 15th and I'm 54th.

**pelagius** · 08-31-2012, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by creekster View Post

I am tied for 66!!! unlike all those losers tied for 82, I have a chance!

I believe all the people tied for 82 are Utes.

**pelagius** · 08-31-2012, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by pellegrino View Post

you are most kind, but now I'm even more confused as to why Rickomatic is 15th and I'm 54th.

MOV accounts for 33% of your points explicitly (and matters more in an indirect way). His prediction had a margin of victory of 21 and the actual was 24 which is worth a lot of points. Your MOV was 7 which is worth zero points.

You received some points for the distance formula portion of the score but not a lot because while your BYU prediction is close the WSU score is really far off leading to a significant distance and low points,

Look at the win, mov, and df columns which tell you how many points you got for picking the winner, explicit margin of victory points, and distance formula related points.

**pellegrino** · 08-31-2012, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by pelagius View Post

MOV accounts for 33% of your points explicitly (and matters more in an indirect way). His prediction had a margin of victory of 21 and the actual was 24 which is worth a lot of points. Your MOV was 7 which is worth zero points.

You received some points for the distance formula portion of the score but not a lot because while your BYU prediction is close the WSU score is really far off leading to a significant distance and low points,

Look at the win, mov, and df columns which tell you how many points you got for picking the winner, explicit margin of victory points, and distance formula related points.

and it appears that's what always dooms me. I'm good at predicting one score or the other, but never the mov.

Announcement

BYU prediction contest result: Washington State

BYU prediction contest result: Washington State

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