Heaps vs Nelson PER comparison

[jay santos]

Data:

Chart attached, shows the pass rating for the game minus opposing team's average pass rating.

[TripletDaddy]

[Moliere]

I was going to post the same thing.

[Moliere]

49 minutes and in the morning before most BYU fans are fully awake? You've got a quick trigger.

[jay santos]

When I do this stuff, I do it for myself. Worth a look, though. I think it's the right data to look at.

Questions:
1. Was last half of Heaps' frosh year as good as we remember?
2. What level is it reasonable to expect Heaps to perform at had he kept the starting job this year?
3. What level is it reasonable to expect Heaps to perform at next year?
4. Is Nelson's year significantly better than Heaps?
5. Is it reasonable to believe Heaps would be better than Nelson next year?


Some other things to take into consideration:
--a QB's improvement is not linear. On average, the most improvement is between first year starting and second year starting. After that, it's more flat.
--though SOS is controlled for to some degree by expressing PER relative to opponent's avg PER, it's still probably not fully accounted for
--change in offensive coaching staff from one year to the next

[beefytee]

Here. I formatted it for you. (Just changed the HTML tag to TABLE)

Very interesting.

Data:

Chart attached, shows the pass rating for the game minus opposing team's average pass rating.

[jay santos]

Here I formatted it for you.

Very interesting.

Thanks.

[CardiacCoug]

So to keep it simple, Nelson had above average PER 70% of the time and Heaps had below average PER 76% of the time, correct?

[pelagius]

Nice Jay; let me add some more data to the mix.

Nelson has certainly performed well this season given the teams he has played against. I understand people's concerns about how well Nelson can perform against top 20 and even top 40 competition, and share some of those concerns. Still, even after taking into account the weak schedule, the Nelson led team is right around where I think a good BYU team should perform. Below is a margin of victory based model that ranks the Nelson games and the Heaps games seperately (the model is very similar to Sagarin's Predictor model). I'm generally happy when BYU is right around the top 25 using a MOV model, and think it's rare for BYU to be much better than that. So, despite concerns about his limitations against teams in the top tercile, I am generally pleased with BYU under Nelson.

Computer Rating Model: Margin of Victory (RAW)
Only Division 1A and 1AA games used

Rank  Team                    Rating   W   L

1     LSU                     99.704  13   0
2     Oklahoma St             98.524  11   1
3     Alabama                 97.762  11   1
4     Oregon                  94.849  11   2
5     Stanford                94.424  11   1
6     Wisconsin               94.070  11   2
7     Oklahoma                93.181   9   3
8     Boise St                88.789  11   1
9     Michigan                86.399  10   2
10    Southern Cal            86.002  10   2
11    Texas A&M               85.981   6   6
12    Houston                 85.959  12   1
13    Arkansas                84.078  10   2
14    Michigan St             82.923  10   3
15    Missouri                82.388   7   5
16    TCU                     82.379  10   2
17    Notre Dame              82.242   8   4
18    Baylor                  81.958   9   3
19    Georgia                 81.437  10   3
20    Texas                   80.449   7   5
21    Florida St              79.946   8   4
22    South Carolina          79.835  10   2
23    Kansas St               79.147  10   2
24    Nebraska                78.973   9   3
25    Arizona St              78.821   6   6
26    Brigham Young2          77.097   6   1
27    California              76.732   7   5
28    Virginia Tech           76.400  11   2
29    Southern Miss           75.718  11   2
30    Vanderbilt              74.916   6   6

[YOhio]

Nice Jay.

Nelson has certainly performed well this season given the teams he has played against. I understand people's concerns about how well Nelson can perform against top 20 and even top 40 competition, and share some of those concerns. Still, even after taking into account the weak schedule, the Nelson led team is right around where I think a good BYU team should perform. Below is a margin of based victory model that ranks the Nelson games and the Heaps games seperately (the model is very similar to Sagarin's Predictor model). I'm generally happy when BYU is right around the top 25 using a MOV model, and think it's rare for BYU to be much better than that. So, despite concerns about his limitations against teams in the top tercile, I am generally pleased with BYU under Nelson.

Computer Rating Model: Margin of Victory (RAW)
Only Division 1A and 1AA games used

Rank  Team                    Rating   W   L

1     LSU                     99.704  13   0
2     Oklahoma St             98.524  11   1
3     Alabama                 97.762  11   1
4     Oregon                  94.849  11   2
5     Stanford                94.424  11   1
6     Wisconsin               94.070  11   2
7     Oklahoma                93.181   9   3
8     Boise St                88.789  11   1
9     Michigan                86.399  10   2
10    Southern Cal            86.002  10   2
11    Texas A&M               85.981   6   6
12    Houston                 85.959  12   1
13    Arkansas                84.078  10   2
14    Michigan St             82.923  10   3
15    Missouri                82.388   7   5
16    TCU                     82.379  10   2
17    Notre Dame              82.242   8   4
18    Baylor                  81.958   9   3
19    Georgia                 81.437  10   3
20    Texas                   80.449   7   5
21    Florida St              79.946   8   4
22    South Carolina          79.835  10   2
23    Kansas St               79.147  10   2
24    Nebraska                78.973   9   3
25    Arizona St              78.821   6   6
26    Brigham Young2          77.097   6   1
27    California              76.732   7   5
28    Virginia Tech           76.400  11   2
29    Southern Miss           75.718  11   2
30    Vanderbilt              74.916   6   6

Boom! pelagius has spoken. Game over, Riley haters.

[Shaka]

I was thinking about next year's schedule this morning and had an epiphany. If Ty Detmer can beat Miami then Nelson can beat Notre Dame.

Notre Dame ain't all that and a bag of chips.

[CardiacCoug]

Nice Jay.

Nelson has certainly performed well this season given the teams he has played against. I understand people's concerns about how well Nelson can perform against top 20 and even top 40 competition, and share some of those concerns. Still, even after taking into account the weak schedule, the Nelson led team is right around where I think a good BYU team should perform. Below is a margin of based victory model that ranks the Nelson games and the Heaps games seperately (the model is very similar to Sagarin's Predictor model). I'm generally happy when BYU is right around the top 25 using a MOV model, and think it's rare for BYU to be much better than that. So, despite concerns about his limitations against teams in the top tercile, I am generally pleased with BYU under Nelson.

So where is BYU with Heaps in that model? #26 is with Nelson in I assume.

[Surfah]

I was thinking about next year's schedule this morning and had an epiphany. If Ty Detmer can beat Miami then Nelson can beat Notre Dame.

Notre Dame ain't all that and a bag of chips.

I just want him to win the first game on the schedule. Lets start there.

[pelagius]

So where is BYU with Heaps in that model? #26 is with Nelson in I assume.

Yes, The Nelson based team is #26. The heaps lead team is #77.

[Shaka]

I just want him to win the first game on the schedule. Lets start there.

That game is going to be a tough test no matter who QB's BYU.