Utah Prediction Contest Results: Montana St. Game

[pelagius]

Overall standings as of the Montana St. game:

  +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |               poster   rank    total   points   win     mov      df   bpred   opred |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                  8BR      1   100.00   100.00    20   40.00   40.00      27      10 |
  |            TheAzzuri      1   100.00   100.00    20   40.00   40.00      27      10 |
  |              Scorcho      3    96.90    96.90    20   38.33   38.57      28      10 |
  |        Clark Addison      4    92.15    92.15    20   36.67   35.48      24       9 |
  |        Goatnapper'96      5    91.92    91.92    20   40.00   31.92      23       6 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            Uncle Ted      5    91.92    91.92    20   40.00   31.92      31      14 |
  |            mr_thekid      7    91.19    91.19    20   38.33   32.86      24       6 |
  |            bluegoose      8    90.71    90.71    20   35.00   35.71      30      10 |
  |             beefytee      8    90.71    90.71    20   35.00   35.71      27       7 |
  |                 Borg      8    90.71    90.71    20   35.00   35.71      30      10 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        Coach McGuirk     11    88.82    88.82    20   33.33   35.48      30       9 |
  |              UteStar     12    87.62    87.62    20   33.33   34.29      27       6 |
  |                Eddie     12    87.62    87.62    20   33.33   34.29      31      10 |
  |               Surfah     14    86.37    86.37    20   36.67   29.70      31      16 |
  |             kccougar     15    85.42    85.42    20   35.00   30.42      33      13 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                U-Ute     15    85.42    85.42    20   35.00   30.42      33      13 |
  |       il Padrino Ute     15    85.42    85.42    20   35.00   30.42      33      13 |
  |             ERCougar     18    85.16    85.16    20   38.33   26.83      21       3 |
  |              hostile     18    85.16    85.16    20   38.33   26.83      34      16 |
  | New Mexican Disaster     20    84.30    84.30    20   33.33   30.96      33      12 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |     HawkeyeUte Scads     21    83.48    83.48    20   35.00   28.48      31      17 |
  |           Joe Public     21    83.48    83.48    20   35.00   28.48      31      17 |
  |       PaloAltoCougar     21    83.48    83.48    20   35.00   28.48      34      14 |
  |             USU Coug     24    82.45    82.45    20   33.33   29.12      34      13 |
  |              scottie     25    81.43    81.43    20   30.00   31.43      33      10 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |           cougjunkie     26    81.19    81.19    20   28.33   32.86      31       7 |
  |            filsdepac     27    78.59    78.59    20   26.67   31.92      31       6 |
  |            Omaha 680     27    78.59    78.59    20   26.67   31.92      31       6 |
  |              snowcat     29    78.33    78.33    20   28.33   30.00      27      17 |
  |                byu71     29    78.33    78.33    20   28.33   30.00      34      10 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          BemidjiCoug     31    77.78    77.78    20   40.00   17.78      38      21 |
  |         DrumNFeather     32    76.67    76.67    20   33.33   23.34      37      16 |
  |              falafel     33    75.24    75.24    20   26.67   28.57      35      10 |
  |            Katy Lied     33    75.24    75.24    20   26.67   28.57      35      10 |
  |            OrangeUte     35    74.71    74.71    20   33.33   21.37      38      17 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               LA Ute     36    72.14    72.14    20   25.00   27.14      36      10 |
  |              Maximus     37    71.61    71.61    20   28.33   23.28      38      14 |
  |       Jarid in Cedar     37    71.61    71.61    20   28.33   23.28      38      14 |
  |          Flystripper     39    70.38    70.38    20   26.67   23.71      38      13 |
  |             Devildog     40    69.46    69.46    20   21.67   27.79      35       7 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             camleish     41    67.31    67.31    20   21.67   25.64      28       0 |
  |     Mormon Red Death     42    65.95    65.95    20   21.67   24.29      38      10 |
  |             happyone     42    65.95    65.95    20   21.67   24.29      38      10 |
  |             LiveCoug     44    63.42    63.42    20   18.33   25.09      17      13 |
  |        Jeff Lebowski     45    63.02    63.02    20   26.67   16.35      42      17 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |         Portland Ute     46    62.53    62.53    20   23.33   19.20      31      24 |
  |                Solon     47    60.38    60.38    20   16.67   23.71      24      21 |
  |               Pelado     48    59.81    59.81    20   15.00   24.81      19      17 |
  |              Flattop     49    59.76    59.76    20   18.33   21.43      40      10 |
  |             Sullyute     50    58.28    58.28    20   15.00   23.28      38       6 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |   HuskyFreeNorthwest     51    55.26    55.26    20   13.33   21.93      39       6 |
  |               DU Ute     52    53.57    53.57    20   15.00   18.57      42      10 |
  |            Donuthole     53    53.38    53.38    20   18.33   15.05      44      14 |
  |        Blueintheface     54    51.37    51.37    20   10.00   21.37      38       3 |
  |           BoylenOver     55    49.20    49.20    20   10.00   19.20      41       6 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                  CJF     56    44.29    44.29    20   10.00   14.29      45      10 |
  |               Sizzle     57    36.99    36.99    20    3.33   13.66      45       6 |
  |             SportUTE     57    36.99    36.99    20    3.33   13.66      45       6 |
  |                wally     59    32.41    32.41    20    0.00   12.41      45       3 |
  |              FN Phat     60    31.90    31.90    20    3.33    8.57      49      10 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              Moliere     61    29.73    29.73    20    0.00    9.73      47       3 |
  |                 woot     62    27.42    27.42    20    0.00    7.42      49       4 |
  |    Borderline Divine     63    27.36    27.36    20    3.33    4.03      52      13 |
  |              UtahDan     64    25.24    25.24    20    0.00    5.24      51       6 |
  |      NorthwestUteFan     65    23.58    23.58    20    0.00    3.58      52       5 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                Brian     66    20.00    20.00    20    0.00    0.00      56       0 |
  |            MarkGrace     67    14.29    14.29     0    0.00   14.29      27      28 |
  |          CardiacCoug     68     5.24     5.24     0    0.00    5.24      31      34 |
  |                YOhio     69     0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      13      52 |
  +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

[pelagius]

Standings sorted by poster name:

  +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |               poster   rank    total   points   win     mov      df   bpred   opred |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                YOhio     69     0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      13      52 |
  |                 woot     62    27.42    27.42    20    0.00    7.42      49       4 |
  |                wally     59    32.41    32.41    20    0.00   12.41      45       3 |
  |              UteStar     12    87.62    87.62    20   33.33   34.29      27       6 |
  |              UtahDan     64    25.24    25.24    20    0.00    5.24      51       6 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             USU Coug     24    82.45    82.45    20   33.33   29.12      34      13 |
  |            Uncle Ted      5    91.92    91.92    20   40.00   31.92      31      14 |
  |                U-Ute     15    85.42    85.42    20   35.00   30.42      33      13 |
  |            TheAzzuri      1   100.00   100.00    20   40.00   40.00      27      10 |
  |               Surfah     14    86.37    86.37    20   36.67   29.70      31      16 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             Sullyute     50    58.28    58.28    20   15.00   23.28      38       6 |
  |             SportUTE     57    36.99    36.99    20    3.33   13.66      45       6 |
  |                Solon     47    60.38    60.38    20   16.67   23.71      24      21 |
  |              snowcat     29    78.33    78.33    20   28.33   30.00      27      17 |
  |               Sizzle     57    36.99    36.99    20    3.33   13.66      45       6 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              scottie     25    81.43    81.43    20   30.00   31.43      33      10 |
  |              Scorcho      3    96.90    96.90    20   38.33   38.57      28      10 |
  |         Portland Ute     46    62.53    62.53    20   23.33   19.20      31      24 |
  |               Pelado     48    59.81    59.81    20   15.00   24.81      19      17 |
  |       PaloAltoCougar     21    83.48    83.48    20   35.00   28.48      34      14 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            OrangeUte     35    74.71    74.71    20   33.33   21.37      38      17 |
  |            Omaha 680     27    78.59    78.59    20   26.67   31.92      31       6 |
  |      NorthwestUteFan     65    23.58    23.58    20    0.00    3.58      52       5 |
  | New Mexican Disaster     20    84.30    84.30    20   33.33   30.96      33      12 |
  |            mr_thekid      7    91.19    91.19    20   38.33   32.86      24       6 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |     Mormon Red Death     42    65.95    65.95    20   21.67   24.29      38      10 |
  |              Moliere     61    29.73    29.73    20    0.00    9.73      47       3 |
  |              Maximus     37    71.61    71.61    20   28.33   23.28      38      14 |
  |            MarkGrace     67    14.29    14.29     0    0.00   14.29      27      28 |
  |             LiveCoug     44    63.42    63.42    20   18.33   25.09      17      13 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               LA Ute     36    72.14    72.14    20   25.00   27.14      36      10 |
  |             kccougar     15    85.42    85.42    20   35.00   30.42      33      13 |
  |            Katy Lied     33    75.24    75.24    20   26.67   28.57      35      10 |
  |           Joe Public     21    83.48    83.48    20   35.00   28.48      31      17 |
  |        Jeff Lebowski     45    63.02    63.02    20   26.67   16.35      42      17 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       Jarid in Cedar     37    71.61    71.61    20   28.33   23.28      38      14 |
  |       il Padrino Ute     15    85.42    85.42    20   35.00   30.42      33      13 |
  |   HuskyFreeNorthwest     51    55.26    55.26    20   13.33   21.93      39       6 |
  |              hostile     18    85.16    85.16    20   38.33   26.83      34      16 |
  |     HawkeyeUte Scads     21    83.48    83.48    20   35.00   28.48      31      17 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             happyone     42    65.95    65.95    20   21.67   24.29      38      10 |
  |        Goatnapper'96      5    91.92    91.92    20   40.00   31.92      23       6 |
  |              FN Phat     60    31.90    31.90    20    3.33    8.57      49      10 |
  |          Flystripper     39    70.38    70.38    20   26.67   23.71      38      13 |
  |              Flattop     49    59.76    59.76    20   18.33   21.43      40      10 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            filsdepac     27    78.59    78.59    20   26.67   31.92      31       6 |
  |              falafel     33    75.24    75.24    20   26.67   28.57      35      10 |
  |             ERCougar     18    85.16    85.16    20   38.33   26.83      21       3 |
  |                Eddie     12    87.62    87.62    20   33.33   34.29      31      10 |
  |               DU Ute     52    53.57    53.57    20   15.00   18.57      42      10 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |         DrumNFeather     32    76.67    76.67    20   33.33   23.34      37      16 |
  |            Donuthole     53    53.38    53.38    20   18.33   15.05      44      14 |
  |             Devildog     40    69.46    69.46    20   21.67   27.79      35       7 |
  |           cougjunkie     26    81.19    81.19    20   28.33   32.86      31       7 |
  |        Coach McGuirk     11    88.82    88.82    20   33.33   35.48      30       9 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        Clark Addison      4    92.15    92.15    20   36.67   35.48      24       9 |
  |                  CJF     56    44.29    44.29    20   10.00   14.29      45      10 |
  |          CardiacCoug     68     5.24     5.24     0    0.00    5.24      31      34 |
  |             camleish     41    67.31    67.31    20   21.67   25.64      28       0 |
  |                byu71     29    78.33    78.33    20   28.33   30.00      34      10 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                Brian     66    20.00    20.00    20    0.00    0.00      56       0 |
  |           BoylenOver     55    49.20    49.20    20   10.00   19.20      41       6 |
  |                 Borg      8    90.71    90.71    20   35.00   35.71      30      10 |
  |    Borderline Divine     63    27.36    27.36    20    3.33    4.03      52      13 |
  |        Blueintheface     54    51.37    51.37    20   10.00   21.37      38       3 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            bluegoose      8    90.71    90.71    20   35.00   35.71      30      10 |
  |          BemidjiCoug     31    77.78    77.78    20   40.00   17.78      38      21 |
  |             beefytee      8    90.71    90.71    20   35.00   35.71      27       7 |
  |                  8BR      1   100.00   100.00    20   40.00   40.00      27      10 |
  +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

[pelagius]

Summary stats of the predictions:

    variable |      mean       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------
       bpred |     34.61     34.00     30.00     38.00     13.00     56.00
       opred |     11.58     10.00      6.00     14.00      0.00     52.00
      winner |      0.96      1.00      1.00      1.00      0.00      1.00
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Parrot Head]

Why didn't it pick up my 34-10 prediction? I used pipes and posted just before filesdepac who is on the results list. Also, how does 34-13 get a better score than 34-10 when the latter was more on target?

Not the Ducks|34
Montana St|10

[pelagius]

Why didn't it pick up my 34-10 prediction? target? I used pipes and posted just before filesdepac who is on the results list.

Because as I mentioned in the thread itself:

Since this is the first prediction event of the year let me remind everyone of the finer points. Utah or a reasonable variation* on the team name must be used or the script will not recognize (and hence record) your offering.


[SIZE="1"]* Where reasonable variation is define solely relative to what LA Ute finds reasonable.

Edit your score and I will rerun the script when I get a chance.

Also, how does 34-13 get a better score than 34-10 when the latter was more on

Because the two main components are margin of victory and Euclidean distance. 34-10 has a higher MOV component and a lower Euclidean distance component than 34-13. The MOV differential between the two is bigger than the distance differential.

[Katy Lied]

YOhio dead last at 69.

:::snicker:::