BYU's record in the next four games

[CJF]

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

SDSU #42
BYU #72
Wyo #81
CSU #91
UNLV #110
UNM #119

Not being a homer, just going by the facts.

Utah State #96. Sometimes facts don't win football games. Especially with a very young team with no offensive identity..

[CJF]

I think we played pretty consistent the last two games. USU was our only real bad game, and maybe the AFA second half. Other than that, we've been reasonably consistent. When I say consistent, I mean consistent with what you would expect from a team ranked about #60 in the nation.

I don't quite get you. You're a homer half the time and a pessimist the other half.

[jay santos]

I don't quite get you. You're a homer half the time and a pessimist the other half.

I'm a realist. And my opinions are always accurate.

edit: it is cute that DDD thinks I'm a homer. He hates that I'm a big fan. Whatever DDD.

[CJF]

I'm a realist. And my opinions are always accurate.

lol

[jay santos]

Utah State #96. Sometimes facts don't win football games. Especially with a very young team with no offensive identity..

There were some special factors about the Utah State game. They're at home. It's a rivalry game for them. Gary Anderson and KW are the two guys on the planet most adept at stopping BYU. They have a running QB. I still not 100% about the Bronco for Hill swap, but it appears to be working wonders. Heaps has a few more games of experience.

The three home games are all against horrible teams.

The CSU game, I give us a little better than 50/50 chance.

Overall, I give us exactly 3.5 wins out of 4. So 50% chance we win 3 and 50% chance we win 4.

[UtahDan]

This is tough. I think being at home plays huge here with a young QB and by the time you get to CSU he will have played two of those games and gained some confidence. On paper I would say 4-0, but since BYU has always been a little worse than I think this year I-ll say 3-1.

[New Mexican Disaster]

Look this years team is not good, at all. However, in looking at Sagarin ratings this morning I notice that we have played the nation's 4th most difficult schedule. These next 4 games the Cougars will show if they are truly terrible.

I think we win all 4, but I will admit that CSU is looking a lot better as the season goes on and I will be worried about that one.

[CJF]

There were some special factors about the Utah State game. They're at home. It's a rivalry game for them. Gary Anderson and KW are the two guys on the planet most adept at stopping BYU. They have a running QB. I still not 100% about the Bronco for Hill swap, but it appears to be working wonders. Heaps has a few more games of experience.

The three home games are all against horrible teams.

The CSU game, I give us a little better than 50/50 chance.

Overall, I give us exactly 3.5 wins out of 4. So 50% chance we win 3 and 50% chance we win 4.

You don't need to be Gary Andersen or KW to stop this BYU offense. Good grief, Nevada stopped it. BYU's defense should look good the next four weeks. CSU is currently 83rd in total offense. UNLV, UNM and Wyoming are ranked 113, 117, and 120. BYU could very well win all four games. But with an offense ranked 108 and a defense ranked 91st, it's hard to imagine a 4 game winning streak. Just like you wouldn't imagine that for CSU, UNLV, Wyoming or UNM against just about any four D-1 schools.

[Hsaru]

CJF, Santos is adversarial, he is usually pessimistic because most people are optimistic. When most people are pessimistic that is when he becomes optimistic/homerish. I think his posting history over the past few years bears this out pretty definitively.

[MarkGrace]

The gameplan should be the same the next four as it was against SDSU: handoff to JJ, handoff to Kariya, handoff to Juice, repeat; ask Heaps to manage the game and make timely throws to keep the defense guessing a bit.

So long as that happens and the D can produce similar to what they have the last two weeks, I think we can get all four.

[CJF]

CJF, Santos is adversarial, he is usually pessimistic because most people are optimistic. When most people are pessimistic that is when he becomes optimistic/homerish. I think his posting history over the past few years bears this out pretty definitively.

I guess I haven't paid close enough attention to him before this season to have noticed.

[jay santos]

There were some special factors about the Utah State game. They're at home. It's a rivalry game for them. Gary Anderson and KW are the two guys on the planet most adept at stopping BYU. They have a running QB. I still not 100% about the Bronco for Hill swap, but it appears to be working wonders. Heaps has a few more games of experience.

The three home games are all against horrible teams.

The CSU game, I give us a little better than 50/50 chance.

Overall, I give us exactly 3.5 wins out of 4. So 50% chance we win 3 and 50% chance we win 4.

OK, I just ran some math and I am a little bit of a homer.

With today's rankings, I get the following probabilities of victory

Wyoming 71%
UNLV 95%
CSU 52%
UNM 96%

For total of 3.1 wins and only 35% probability of going 4-0.

[jay santos]

CJF, Santos is adversarial, he is usually pessimistic because most people are optimistic. When most people are pessimistic that is when he becomes optimistic/homerish. I think his posting history over the past few years bears this out pretty definitively.

lol, or maybe the pessimistic get more vocal when times are bad and the optimistic get more vocal when times are good, so a realist will always look adversarial.

[TripletDaddy]

OK, I just ran some math and I am a little bit of a homer.

With today's rankings, I get the following probabilities of victory

Wyoming 71%
UNLV 95%
CSU 52%
UNM 96%

For total of 3.1 wins and only 35% probability of going 4-0.

What does this mean re: your prediction? I don't want to w.a.s.t.e. my time in Fist Rolling in Portal B with some Debby Downer.

[jay santos]

What does this mean re: your prediction? I don't want to w.a.s.t.e. my time in Fist Rolling in Portal B with some Debby Downer.

Check with me before game time. I'm usually optimistic at that point.