I don't like when we get to Friday without a dedicated game thread. This is the game that concerns me most of the remaining schedule. Yes, more than Utah and more than @Arizona State. I think the scare that Oklahoma State put into us might be a huge benefit because playing like that against the UCF run game could make for a long afternoon. Here's to hoping Hill firmly pointed out where the D was undisciplined last week and they have corrected it. I expect us to stack the box and dare them to beat us through the air. If we are successful in that strategy I do like our chances. I also expect the scoring to be in the 30s. I don't think they can significantly slow down our offense especially if LJ is healthy and running like last week. However if we can't contain their ground game they could really limit our possessions with by chewing up the clock with long scoring drives.
Line opened with BYU slightly favored and money clearly went heavy to the other side as it's now UCF -2.5. SP+ has us at 58% chance of victory with expected margin of 3.5 points. FPI has us at 45% chance of victory with an expected loss by 1.5 points.
I think this is one of the most important games in program history. Not trying to be dramatic. A win here would really put us in the driver seat for a Big 12 championship game appearance. Hard to believe I'm typing those words after what we thought going into the season.
Line opened with BYU slightly favored and money clearly went heavy to the other side as it's now UCF -2.5. SP+ has us at 58% chance of victory with expected margin of 3.5 points. FPI has us at 45% chance of victory with an expected loss by 1.5 points.
I think this is one of the most important games in program history. Not trying to be dramatic. A win here would really put us in the driver seat for a Big 12 championship game appearance. Hard to believe I'm typing those words after what we thought going into the season.
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