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Each week a score of 100 is possible. Here is the formula:
Points = 20*winner +
40*winner*(1-abs(MOVD)/24) if abs(MOVD) <= 24, 0 otherwise +
40*(1-d(predicted,actual)/28) if d( , ) <= 28, 0 otherwise
Winner = 1 if the winning team is correctly picked, 0 otherwise
MOVD = margin of victory diferrential: Predicted (MOV) - Actual(MOV)
d( , ) = Euclidean distance
Format for scores:
---------------------
BYU|X
OPPONENT|Y
---------------------
First line of the post must be BYU and then the numerical score prediction. The second line must be the opponent name and the numerical score prediction. The data are collected by a little script I wrote so if you make things non-standard it makes it more likely that your prediction doesn't get counted. You must use the pipe delimiter (not a lower case "l", a "|") ... the script scans for the delimiter. The script doesn't care that you prefer a different delimiter. Don't add any other punctation. Don't reverse the scores. I am not going to check time stamps for predictions so your on your honor for not posting a prediction ex post.
FAQ
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1. Wow, it a seems like the formula gives very heavy weight to predicting the correct winner?
A. Yes it does.
2. How will a tie breaker be determined?
A. If a tie occurs, the winner will be determined by who beat the Vegas spread more frequently (not really).
3. Where is the Utah contest?
A. Ya, do the same format for the Utah contest, etc, etc.
4. Is there a cool prize?
A. Ask Creekster or Babs.
5. What happens if I post multiple predictions?
A. The script only stores your last prediction you post in a thread.
6. Can I post non prediction content or commentary on my predictions in the prediction threads?
A. You can post other commentary in the threads. Just make sure the predictions come in the form of
BYU|X
OPP|Y
or
Utah|X
OPP|Y
as the first two lines of the post.
7. Why do you run the contest if you hold it in such disdain?
A. Mostly because creekster is a good guy and because Lebowski has been known to use Excel so we can't let him run it. So that pretty much leaves me as the only option for the trinity.
8. Emacs or vi?
A. Emacs
9. What is the best Twilight book?
A. The first is the best but the last one is the most Mormon.
10. Your favorite Emacs editing mode?
A. Good and relevent question; I am going to go with "org-mode" (you can do taylor series approximations in the table mini mode for org-mode).
11 Why don't you make the script more general or flexible?
A. Lazy
12. Who won last year?
Parrot Head
http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=15854
and, PAC won the Utah Prediction contest:
http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=16003
* I reserve the right to change the formula if it gives us obviously weird results or a strange sorting.
Points = 20*winner +
40*winner*(1-abs(MOVD)/24) if abs(MOVD) <= 24, 0 otherwise +
40*(1-d(predicted,actual)/28) if d( , ) <= 28, 0 otherwise
Winner = 1 if the winning team is correctly picked, 0 otherwise
MOVD = margin of victory diferrential: Predicted (MOV) - Actual(MOV)
d( , ) = Euclidean distance
Format for scores:
---------------------
BYU|X
OPPONENT|Y
---------------------
First line of the post must be BYU and then the numerical score prediction. The second line must be the opponent name and the numerical score prediction. The data are collected by a little script I wrote so if you make things non-standard it makes it more likely that your prediction doesn't get counted. You must use the pipe delimiter (not a lower case "l", a "|") ... the script scans for the delimiter. The script doesn't care that you prefer a different delimiter. Don't add any other punctation. Don't reverse the scores. I am not going to check time stamps for predictions so your on your honor for not posting a prediction ex post.
FAQ
-----
1. Wow, it a seems like the formula gives very heavy weight to predicting the correct winner?
A. Yes it does.
2. How will a tie breaker be determined?
A. If a tie occurs, the winner will be determined by who beat the Vegas spread more frequently (not really).
3. Where is the Utah contest?
A. Ya, do the same format for the Utah contest, etc, etc.
4. Is there a cool prize?
A. Ask Creekster or Babs.
5. What happens if I post multiple predictions?
A. The script only stores your last prediction you post in a thread.
6. Can I post non prediction content or commentary on my predictions in the prediction threads?
A. You can post other commentary in the threads. Just make sure the predictions come in the form of
BYU|X
OPP|Y
or
Utah|X
OPP|Y
as the first two lines of the post.
7. Why do you run the contest if you hold it in such disdain?
A. Mostly because creekster is a good guy and because Lebowski has been known to use Excel so we can't let him run it. So that pretty much leaves me as the only option for the trinity.
8. Emacs or vi?
A. Emacs
9. What is the best Twilight book?
A. The first is the best but the last one is the most Mormon.
10. Your favorite Emacs editing mode?
A. Good and relevent question; I am going to go with "org-mode" (you can do taylor series approximations in the table mini mode for org-mode).
11 Why don't you make the script more general or flexible?
A. Lazy
12. Who won last year?
Parrot Head
http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=15854
and, PAC won the Utah Prediction contest:
http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=16003
* I reserve the right to change the formula if it gives us obviously weird results or a strange sorting.
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