2024 BYU Football - Year 2 in the Big 12

[Pelado]

But does Jake have grit?

Not sure, but he seems to have chutzpa.

[byufan4ever]

But does Jake have grit?

[Pelado]

I'm knocking on wood hoping that Jake never has to play with a broken back (and Riley shouldn't have been playing with one, either).

[Bo Diddley]

Can't argue with the data behind Sizzle's analysis. But I do think there is more upside to Jake than there ever was with Riley. I think Jake is faster. I think he is more durable. And I think he has a better arm than Riley had. There were some throws that Jake made this year that I don't think Riley could have ever made even with a healthy back. These are all impressions and point to my hope for another jump between Junior and Senior year for Jake but he could very well end up with career numbers like Riley Nelson.

I'd like to circle back to this because I took think the ceiling is higher for Jake. Perhaps that's because he still has his senior year to play, but also because when he's played his best, I agree that he's more accurate.

[BigFatMeanie]

This is a great discussion. I don't have anything to contribute but this kind of discussion is one of the reasons I hang out on this board.

[Omaha 680]

In 2011, BYU / Riley played at Ole Miss, at Texas, Utah, UCF, Oregon State, and TCU. Is it a perfect schedule comp? No. But it's not that far off from what BYU played this year IMO in terms of competition – and BYU went 9-3 that year.

Those are some good names at a glance but I do think it is pretty far from what we played this year. That was prior to the Scott Frost runup at UCF; they went 5-7 that year. Ole Miss was a dumpster fire in the decade after Eli Manning, going a whopping 2-10 in 2011. Oregon State was 3-9. This was when the wheels were coming off for Texas under the final Mack Brown years; they went 8-5 but managed to beat BYU. TCU was a decent team going 11-2 but they were also one of our three losses. The other loss was the 54-10 abomination against Utah. To me the 9-3 record in hindsight looks very much like a BYU team that ran up the wins against very bad teams and lost to the only decent teams on the schedule. We played two teams from Idaho and neither of them had Boise in their name!

Not looking at advanced metrics (only opponents' W/L record), BYU's strength of schedule in 2011 was #103. This year we are #26.

Edit: to be fair this is a Riley vs Jake discussion. Riley didn't play the first four game against Ole Miss, Texas, Utah, and UCF. He came in and won the game against Utah State from my recollection. So if we give Riley the Utah State game that he didn't start but he won, Riley's season is an impressive 7-1 but with 4 of the names you cited above absent and the best team by far being TCU to whom he lost.

[Bo Diddley]

In 2011, BYU / Riley played at Ole Miss, at Texas, Utah, UCF, Oregon State, and TCU. Is it a perfect schedule comp? No. But it's not that far off from what BYU played this year IMO in terms of competition – and BYU went 9-3 that year.

Interesting. I wanted to look it up. We had some strong scheduling years. I wonder what the computers would say on strength of schedule when it's all said and done.

[Sizzle]

It's never going to be a perfect comparison, and you bring up a fair point about the level of competition.

In 2011, BYU / Riley played at Ole Miss, at Texas, Utah, UCF, Oregon State, and TCU. Is it a perfect schedule comp? No. But it's not that far off from what BYU played this year IMO in terms of competition – and BYU went 9-3 that year.

[Goatnapper'96]

After such a great season BYU has the 13th best recruiting class in the conference. That's not going to cut it.

Well they won 10 games this year with recruiting classes ranked much lower so it actually may cut it.

[Bo Diddley]

But don't we have to credit the much higher win total against power teams between the two quarterback to Jake and his abilities to use his tools in critical situations? It's not all luck.

It's never going to be a perfect comparison, and you bring up a fair point about the level of competition.

[BlueK]

Can't argue with the data behind Sizzle's analysis. But I do think there is more upside to Jake than there ever was with Riley. I think Jake is faster. I think he is more durable. And I think he has a better arm than Riley had. There were some throws that Jake made this year that I don't think Riley could have ever made even with a healthy back. These are all impressions and point to my hope for another jump between Junior and Senior year for Jake but he could very well end up with career numbers like Riley Nelson.

But don't we have to credit the much higher win total against power teams between the two quarterback to Jake and his abilities to use his tools in critical situations? It's not all luck. Do we think Riley would have gone 10-2 this year? The argument against Jake's influence could also be the much-improved defense this year but remember the lament during the Heaps/Nelson years were our offense was wasting one of the best defenses we ever had at BYU.

I'll just close by saying Bronco taking the Utah State job is very good for us. Glad USU didn't pony up to Hill's demends.

I understand the Riley Nelson comparison but I agree with you that Jake has a much stronger arm. Where he can improve is in making his throws a little more consistent. He can make all the tough throws but sometimes they're just off.

[Omaha 680]

Can't argue with the data behind Sizzle's analysis. But I do think there is more upside to Jake than there ever was with Riley. I think Jake is faster. I think he is more durable. And I think he has a better arm than Riley had. There were some throws that Jake made this year that I don't think Riley could have ever made even with a healthy back. These are all impressions and point to my hope for another jump between Junior and Senior year for Jake but he could very well end up with career numbers like Riley Nelson.

But don't we have to credit the much higher win total against power teams between the two quarterback to Jake and his abilities to use his tools in critical situations? It's not all luck. Do we think Riley would have gone 10-2 this year? The argument against Jake's influence could also be the much-improved defense this year but remember the lament during the Heaps/Nelson years were our offense was wasting one of the best defenses we ever had at BYU.

I'll just close by saying Bronco taking the Utah State job is very good for us. Glad USU didn't pony up to Hill's demends.

[Sizzle]

Yeah, that's definitely not his strength, but I love the guy.

He's got good vision, good footwork, seams to find the lanes better than others. I don't know if that "breakaway gear" is something he has if he's healthy or not – but that's honestly the only downside to his game. And maybe durability.

[BigPiney]

Yeah, that's definitely not his strength, but I love the guy.

I've thought about that comparison to Riley Nelson before as well. So far, probably a good comparison.

My thought was that he was similar to Riley with his fractured back. So not good. I wonder how much Jake's injury is limiting him.

[Bo Diddley]

If I'm going to gripe, our longest rush of the year is for 39 yards – I'd love to have a few more "bigger hitters" but that may not be LJ's strength.

Yeah, that's definitely not his strength, but I love the guy.

I've thought about that comparison to Riley Nelson before as well. So far, probably a good comparison.