If you're a Fresno/Nevada fan....

[shoganai]

Seriously? I thought Benson sounded like a madman.

Dennis Dodd:

Karl you've done more than enough in explaining yourself. Go get martini somewhere. One of the greatest guys in college sports.
about 21 hours ago via TweetDeck

80 minutes on the phone. Thanks Karl.
about 21 hours ago via TweetDeck

Find me one prominent media member that would ever say this about Hair Thompson.

[ERCougar]

I think a few things happened...

-Some how, some way, Thompson convinced FSU and UNR that BYU was likely to abandon its plans and stay if they blew up the WAC.

-I don't think any of the three parties thought very much information about how this all went down would leak. That was a serious miscalculation. I think Thompson believed he could paint a pretty picture. When he was done talking, everyone knew he was dodging. The next day, Benson showed what a real commissioner sounds like, and the USU president had no problem throwing his former colleagues under the bus.

-FSU and UNR did not fully research what will happen if BYU still jumps (which I think it will). Thompson may have thrown them some bogus numbers. Maybe they just didn't ask the right questions. If BYU does go, the MWC payout will be horrendously slashed. TV deals will be scrapped and the new deals will be pitiful by comparison. Don't plan on ESPN being very interested. $5mil buyouts are rapidly coming due and they're now splitting revenue 10 ways instead of eight or nine.

In summary, UNR and Fresno made what appears to be the smart move at first glance, but they didn't fully think it through. I think these WAC teams have been desparate to get into the MWC for so long, that when the invite finally came they jumped mostly out of fear of loss.

I think it's very likely they'll find that they really didn't improve their situation at all when all the dust settles.

So now I'm fully over the edge, shouting obscenities at strangers, but I just can't resist...

I agree with this analysis.
-Fresno and UNR thought they were making smart moves but I think these will backfire in the end. The timing (i.e. before next summer) only makes sense if they were hoping to make BYU would stay. I don't think BYU will and now they're stuck with a huge bill and a two-year obligation to the WAC.
-Thompson thought he was making a shrewd move in sticking it to BYU. Anger really clouded his vision, because if he's really interested in BCS AQ status, then he needs to negotiate with BYU, not invite two new mouths to feed behind their back (and at a cost). BYU was obviously concerned about revenue-sharing and he just made it that much worse. Does anyone see the MWC getting AQ status without BYU? Even with BYU, it's a stretch in most people's eyes.
-I know people will disagree, but I actually think BYU acted pretty rationally here (obviously assuming you like independence). They tried to ensure they were moving to an intact WAC (really, you can't ask for more than $5 M as an exit from the WAC...) and they assumed everyone would act in their own interest--I think long-term, things will prove that no one did.

Scratch this all if BYU stays--then Thompson, Fresno, and UNR were all brilliant. I just don't see them staying at this point.