The Independent Expansion Groundswell

[Indy Coug]

This sums up why it makes perfect sense for BYU to go out on their own.

How much of the ~11 million MWC contract is directly due to value added by BYU? My guess - $4 - $5 million at least. That's how much BYU could get on their own. I can tell you, that's how much people in the AD at BYU are throwing around that they THINK they can get. So in other words, BYU's contribution is $4 - $5 million, but they get $1.2. Every year, they're basically kicking in $3 - $4 million to the Wyomings and New Mexicos of the world, who probably don't deserve more than a cup of coffee for their TV viewership rights...

THAT is why it makes sense for BYU to leave.

So how does BYU get the $4M to $5M on their own?

[statman]

So how does BYU get the $4M to $5M on their own?

Some from local distribution rights (KSL) and for national distribution rights for most games (ESPN, Fox, Vs, PPV, whomever). Some for specifically negotiated games with ESPN. Just as an example - how much was the Oklahoma game worth last year? Get a couple of those a year (negotiated with ESPN directly) have KSL make all other games available locally and available to be pushed up for PPV or an ESPN/Fox Sports slot for national distribution, and the numbers add up quickly.

And KSL doesn't have to worry about production facilities - BYUs got better than they do. BYU could do all production on their side, and KSL would just have to dedicate the time slots for games, and be available to push the signal up to the national networks. It's a SWEET deal for KSL (depending on the price of course). Instead of Saturday afternoon informertials, they play all the BYU games, with the production work they have to do being basically the same...

The back of the envelope number I've heard from two different 'insiders' - one a mid-level guy in the AD and one who's a very big donor - is that BYU expects 3 to 4 times the TV revenue from being independent than from the MWC/mtn, and if things play out well with PPV (if BYU could show that they draw on PPV like they say they do), it could be more than that. (After the first season or two, they'd go to the PPV people (Fox, ESPN, etc) and have a data-driven demand for as much money as they think their worth. If they really are one of the single biggest national PPV teams, which has been the claim, they'll get more money out of that part of the deal.

[jay santos]

ftr, here is my official opinion on going independent.

1. I think financially there's no question you'd be better off. I read Haddow's post and it's mostly full of crap. Yeah, we don't go out and get a Notre Dame TV contract, but we're not concerned with going from $1M to $30M. There's no question, we'd be better off financially.

2. Scheduling. I don't see a reason why we couldn't pull it off. This would be a huge area of due diligence before we pull the trigger. If we can put together a schedule like: first 6 games BCS, middle 3-4 games top level WAC/MWC schools, Utah Thanksgiving weekend, then it's all good. If they find through the due diligence that it would be three BCS, three WAC/MWC the first six weeks and then crap school the rest of the way, then there's no way you do it.

3. Other sports. I assume we'd go to the WAC for other sports. I don't think this would hurt the overall sports programs that much. But over the past 10 years, I've slowly trended higher in my fanaticism for BYU BB and lower in my interest in BYU FB to the point where I might be a bigger BYU BB fan than FB. So for me personally, I'd be disappointed with going independent because of the impact on BB.

4. Utah factor. Going independent now may seem like a knee jerk reaction to the Utah announcement, but the fact is the MWC already sucked and it just lost its second best program (BYU #1, see past definition on ranking programs, ie combination of attendance, fan base, winning history, etc). Adding Boise helps but it's still a net loss.

edit one more thing.

5. Value of winning a conference. I don't know how important this is. But it shouldn't be dismissed. At least in the MWC even if you're in a crappy year, you usually have a conference championship giving you motivation and keeping fans interested until at least three weeks till the season end. Going independent, you could have a disinterested team and/or fan base a few games into the season if you start slow.

[Indy Coug]

Then you basically pray that 2002 to 2005 don't happen again.

[DapperDan]

Then you basically pray that 2002 to 2005 don't happen again.

It would make recruiting an even bigger priority than it is now and put the coaches on a much shorter leash. And you have the potential to put a muzzle on the HC office. Can't suspend your leading rusher for the season, it would hurt the bottom line too much.

[beelzebabette]

Seeing that when we play UNLV, there are as many Cougar fans in the stands as UNLV fans, I'd say they have an incentive. Same for SDSU. Wyoming sure treats it like their rivalry game. I'd say those three teams surely have a financial incentive to play BYU...

I'm assuming programs are focused on getting their own fans in the seats so I'm not giving any much weight to this argument.

By the time BYU came to town, the fairweather fans had deserted UNM in droves. There were well over 5000 BYU fans at that game and at kickoff about 1/2 the fans were BYU fans.

Just have to call malarkey on this point. I was there, and I think 1/3 is a generous fraction.

I don't doubt the rest of your post, specifically, UNM's first sellout was a BYU game.

All I can tell you Indy is that different people from different sides of the administration are all talking about independence. It's the one thing they're talking about after a LONG ~4 months of absolute silence.

If this is a case of we-have-to-look-like-we're-doing-something, I'd rather people start sitting on their hands and staring at the walls.

Well, many thought the MWC was a better basketball conference last year than the PAC-10. UNM, UNLV and SDSU are at large tournament teams. The WAC is lucky to get one a year. TCU made it to the college world series this year. The MWC is much much better in sports outside of football than the WAC and it does matter. When was the last time anyone spoke about the WAC being a strong national conference in any sport? The MWC is getting in those conversations even with Utah struggling in basketball.

Thank you.

And you have the potential to put a muzzle on the HC office. Can't suspend your leading rusher for the season, it would hurt the bottom line too much.

??? IIRC, that decision was taken out of the HC office's hands.

[BlueHair]

ftr, here is my official opinion on going independent.

1. I think financially there's no question you'd be better off. I read Haddow's post and it's mostly full of crap. Yeah, we don't go out and get a Notre Dame TV contract, but we're not concerned with going from $1M to $30M. There's no question, we'd be better off financially.

2. Scheduling. I don't see a reason why we couldn't pull it off. This would be a huge area of due diligence before we pull the trigger. If we can put together a schedule like: first 6 games BCS, middle 3-4 games top level WAC/MWC schools, Utah Thanksgiving weekend, then it's all good. If they find through the due diligence that it would be three BCS, three WAC/MWC the first six weeks and then crap school the rest of the way, then there's no way you do it.

3. Other sports. I assume we'd go to the WAC for other sports. I don't think this would hurt the overall sports programs that much. But over the past 10 years, I've slowly trended higher in my fanaticism for BYU BB and lower in my interest in BYU FB to the point where I might be a bigger BYU BB fan than FB. So for me personally, I'd be disappointed with going independent because of the impact on BB.

4. Utah factor. Going independent now may seem like a knee jerk reaction to the Utah announcement, but the fact is the MWC already sucked and it just lost its second best program (BYU #1, see past definition on ranking programs, ie combination of attendance, fan base, winning history, etc). Adding Boise helps but it's still a net loss.

edit one more thing.

5. Value of winning a conference. I don't know how important this is. But it shouldn't be dismissed. At least in the MWC even if you're in a crappy year, you usually have a conference championship giving you motivation and keeping fans interested until at least three weeks till the season end. Going independent, you could have a disinterested team and/or fan base a few games into the season if you start slow.

HB Arnett seems to think the WCC would be a good option for basketball, and I have to agree.

[jay santos]

HB Arnett seems to think the WCC would be a good option for basketball, and I have to agree.

Doesn't it seem like Gonzaga runs through that league undefeated every year with exception of St Mary's? Trading Boise with Utah sucks for MWC hoops, but it's still better than that.

btw, trading Boise with Utah doesn't weaken the MWC for hoops, but the MWC was perfect. UNLV, UNM, and SDSU for competition. Utah for having someone to kick around and enjoy it.

[BlueHair]

Doesn't it seem like Gonzaga runs through that league undefeated every year with exception of St Mary's? Trading Boise with Utah sucks for MWC hoops, but it's still better than that.

btw, trading Boise with Utah doesn't weaken the MWC for hoops, but the MWC was perfect. UNLV, UNM, and SDSU for competition. Utah for having someone to kick around and enjoy it.

Gonzaga does dominate the WCC. St. Mary's is good. The other teams are okay, but not great. Travel would be extremely easy and there is a large LDS fanbase in those cities. I wouldn't mind trips to San Francisco, Portland, San Diego, Los Angeles, etc. All of those beat the hell out of Laramie, Fort Collins, and Colorado Springs in the winter. I think the conference tourney is in Vegas, as well.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Doesn't it seem like Gonzaga runs through that league undefeated every year with exception of St Mary's? Trading Boise with Utah sucks for MWC hoops, but it's still better than that.

btw, trading Boise with Utah doesn't weaken the MWC for hoops, but the MWC was perfect. UNLV, UNM, and SDSU for competition. Utah for having someone to kick around and enjoy it.

The WCC would be better for basketball than the WAC. But I, like others, enjoy the MWC for basketball. As far as basketball goes, the MWC offers BYU as much or more than what BYU adds to the equation (not so with football). UNLV has a national title. New Mexico has The Pit and a big following for its basketball team. There are some quality coaches in the conference. I like it.

But besides basketball, I really can't see a huge difference between the WAC and the MWC. Fresno State won the College World Series a couple years ago.

[jay santos]

After reading Harmon's article and thinking through this, I'm starting to think BYU's end game is to threaten independence to blow up the current MWC TV and revenue sharing deals. My prediction is 10 years from now we're still in the MWC but we have something closer to a Texas to the Big 12 relationship with the MWC and a TV deal that looks like the one Harmon outlines in his article.

[New Mexican Disaster]

I
Just have to call malarkey on this point. I was there, and I think 1/3 is a generous fraction.

I don't doubt the rest of your post, specifically, UNM's first sellout was a BYU game.

I was there too and it looked like 50/50 to me. Significantly more than 1/3 anyway.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

After reading Harmon's article and thinking through this, I'm starting to think BYU's end game is to threaten independence to blow up the current MWC TV and revenue sharing deals. My prediction is 10 years from now we're still in the MWC but we have something closer to a Texas to the Big 12 relationship with the MWC and a TV deal that looks like the one Harmon outlines in his article.

If every school in the MWC is getting $1.5 million, doesn't that just add up to $13.5 million? If BYU could demand twice as much, how much is Boise going to get? BYU gets 3 million, Boise could demand at least $2 million. That 8.5 for the remaining seven schools.

The numbers are still paltry even after that.

[DapperDan]

??? IIRC, that decision was taken out of the HC office's hands.

I'm talking about the future. Independence will tie money to performance far, far more than the current conference alignment does.

[jay santos]

If every school in the MWC is getting $1.5 million, doesn't that just add up to $13.5 million? If BYU could demand twice as much, how much is Boise going to get? BYU gets 3 million, Boise could demand at least $2 million. That 8.5 for the remaining seven schools.

The numbers are still paltry even after that.

I'm thinking a model more like MWC gets the hell out of the way and lets BYU do what they want.