The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[Omaha 680]

Unless some extremely drastic change in philosophy is on the horizon, the Pac16 would take BYU before the B10 would.

BYU's best shot is for the Big12 to stay together, no question. It's extremely unlikely they get into the any of the 3 strongest conferences, and the 4th super conference is likely to be some ACC/Big East mash-up that would be geographically problematic. Super conferences are just bad for BYU.

I agree. I have been taking solace in Texas and Oklahama's apparent desire to keep the Big 12 alive. It makes sense to me. Why would they want to go to the PAC or the B1G? Is there really that much more money to be made? Staying in the Big 12, keeping or creating their own networks, and having an easier path to championships seems like the logical choice to me. That is, if the lesser Big 12 teams stay pacified.

[shoganai]

If this is the case than 64 is the wrong number. Their are many more teams than 64 that bring some big money to the table.

16x4 is somewhat arbitrary. Jackie Sherrill, for example, thinks it will be 4x20. I think if you start digging into the financials, however, there really aren't THAT many more than 64 teams that can make the kind of money we're talking about here.

But at that point it's just symantics.

Seriously though, watch for the debate that's about to hit full steam about increasing the value of scholarships. That's the next step in this. It will create the huge divide if/when the NCAA approves it. Then we'll know exactly how many teams are capable of keeping up in a new upper tier.

[Paperback Writer]

You are wrong. Most of the athletic departments in the big 12 took to the streets and screamed hallelujah that they didnt have Colorado in their conference anymore.

That's not accurate. Some athletic departments would have screamed hallelujah if Colorado were replaced by BYU but none were happy to lose Colorado with no better replacement. Programs were relieved that TV contracts were staying the same. In the short term they were going to have more revenue with two fewer programs in the conference but there were and are long term concerns with the loss of Colorado.

The only reason some athletic departments may have screamed hallelujah is that it was widely know that Colorado saw itself more as a PAC-10 team then a Big 12 team and was waiting for a PAC-10 invite. The only hallelujah chorus was because the waiting was finally over.

Colorado has enormous potential if it once again gets a great coaching staff. In my view, if one takes Utah's coaching staff and gives it to Colorado - the Buffalos will give the Trojans a battle for the PAC-12 South. And this is coming from someone who very much disliked Colorado in the Big 12.

[Blueintheface]

Unless some extremely drastic change in philosophy is on the horizon, the Pac16 would take BYU before the B10 would.

BYU's best shot is for the Big12 to stay together, no question. It's extremely unlikely they get into the any of the 3 strongest conferences, and the 4th super conference is likely to be some ACC/Big East mash-up that would be geographically problematic. Super conferences are just bad for BYU.

I agree with everthing except the last sentence. Geography concerns are over overrated IMO. The names on these Super Conferences might change based on strange geography of its teams and it may not matter at all. The TV market in Utah is strong and BYU is a top 30 team without question.

Inclusion is a foregone conclusion.

[BemidjiCoug]

I agree. I have been taking solace in Texas and Oklahama's apparent desire to keep the Big 12 alive. It makes sense to me. Why would they want to go to the PAC or the B1G? Is there really that much more money to be made? Staying in the Big 12, keeping or creating their own networks, and having an easier path to championships seems like the logical choice to me. That is, if the lesser Big 12 teams stay pacified.

Totally agree. Why would Texas or Oklahoma want to be the new team in a conference, they have the clout to get teams to come to them.

[shoganai]

I said this a dozen pages ago and no one listened. There will likely be 5 super conferences of anywhere from 12 members (PAC) to 16.

I think this will happen if the Big 12 stays together.

[Pelado]

A clean national championship has nothing to do with it (or not much).

It's about creating a new field of financial competition where the schools capable of making big money maximize their brands together.

The dirty little secret is, many of the Louisiana Techs of the world actually want this as much as the big dogs do. There is little or nothing to be gained anymore for teams like Idaho to compete at the same technical level as Florida.

Call me crazy if you wish, but google "16-team super conferences" and start reading how many other people are talking about this around the country. Maybe we're all smoking the same weed, but you have to admit there's at least a little substance to it.

When everyone else is buying, it's time to sell.

[ERCougar]

Do you have a link for this claim?

No, but I read it quite a bit last year when all this was going on. I have no idea if it's true--it may have just have been sour grapes on the Big whatever schools' parts. But Denver is not a college sports town and CU's football and basketball programs are a disaster, so I guess I didn't read it too skeptically. And like Jay says, as long as they're in the bottom half of earners and the conference stays together, it's a net financial win for the remaining schools. Sorry, Babs--you know math doesn't lie.

This isn't smack at all. You could pose the question as to why BYU really needed to be invited as a "partner" with someone else. I think the independence move and subsequent contract has helped them considerably to sell themselves as a financially attractive option.

EDIT: Just read PBW's response above--that makes sense. I'm not plugged into the Big 12 so I have no idea what the real feeling was--I'm just looking at numbers. The loss of the Denver market surely caused some consternation about the possible change of TV contract, but I'm still not convinced that Denver is a big college sports town or that CU athletics is a big draw there. Take that for what it's worth from someone who has spent all of one summer living there.

[LiveCoug]

Wilner thinks BYU stays Indy. Doesn't think BYU would pull their olympic teams from the WCC. :eyeroll:

"*** The Big 12’s pursuit of Notre Dame, Arkansas and BYU is mostly a smoke screen – a chance for commissioner Dan Beebe to show he’s being proactive.

I have been told by several sources that BYU is very happy with its status as a football Independent and having its Olympic sports in the West Coast Conference – the school and the league share many of the same values.

It’s extremely unlikely that BYU would pull its teams out of the WCC.

At most, it would join the Big 12 in a football-only capacity – but I don’t expect that to happen, either."

[Paperback Writer]

No, but I read it quite a bit last year when all this was going on. I have no idea if it's true--it may have just have been sour grapes on the Big whatever schools' parts. But Denver is not a college sports town and CU's football and basketball programs are a disaster, so I guess I didn't read it too skeptically. And like Jay says, as long as they're in the bottom half of earners and the conference stays together, it's a net financial win for the remaining schools. Sorry, Babs--you know math doesn't lie.

This isn't smack at all. You could pose the question as to why BYU really needed to be invited as a "partner" with someone else. I think the independence move and subsequent contract has helped them considerably to sell themselves as a financially attractive option.

EDIT: Just read PBW's response above--that makes sense. I'm not plugged into the Big 12 so I have no idea what the real feeling was--I'm just looking at numbers. The loss of the Denver market surely caused some consternation about the possible change of TV contract, but I'm still not convinced that Denver is a big college sports town or that CU athletics is a big draw there. Take that for what it's worth from someone who has spent all of one summer living there.

I'd only add that CU can be a big draw when its winning like in the early 90's. There are a lot of bandwagon fans (like there is everywhere). But it's accurate to point our that the Broncos own the Denver market and CU football and basketball are a mess right now. If Colorado can turn things around with the new coaching staff they can once again become a much larger draw. I think the PAC-12 will be a boost to Colorado. There wasn't the consternation with Colorado leaving the Big 12 because they could be replaced by BYU. The real problem was Nebraska's departure which only could be replaced by Notre Dame.

[shoganai]

The latest from Jon Wilner. I suppose this will further my reputation as the Big 12 expansion rain cloud, so I expect some of you will seek to slaughter the messenger once again.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/college...n-realignment/

Highlighted quotes:

Yes, there have been discussions between the Pac-12 and Texas and Oklahoma, according to sources... That does not mean the Sooners and Longhorns are on the brink of joining the Pac-12 — not by any stretch. The Big 12 could very well remain intact for a few years.

Something else to keep in mind: Everybody is talking to everybody right now … covering their bases, making contingency plans … because if the Big 12 does implode, it will be utter chaos.

Does Oklahoma reach out to the Pac-12 first, intent on bolting without knowing Texas’ next move?

Do the Sooners somehow move in lockstep with UT?

“The permutations are endless,’’ one source said.

The Big 12’s pursuit of Notre Dame, Arkansas and BYU is mostly a smoke screen – a chance for commissioner Dan Beebe to show he’s being proactive.

I have been told by several sources that BYU is very happy with its status as a football Independent and having its Olympic sports in the West Coast Conference – the school and the league share many of the same values.

It’s extremely unlikely that BYU would pull its teams out of the WCC.

At most, it would join the Big 12 in a football-only capacity – but I don’t expect that to happen, either.

Several sources said that while the media attention is locked on the Big 12’s purported courtship of BYU, what’s really happening behind the scenes is this:

The Big 12 is considering a raid of the Big East for at least two teams and perhaps more.

The names I heard from multiple sources were Pittsburgh and Rutgers, but I have to believe others, including Louisville and West Virginia, are in play.

The notion that the Big 12 was only interested in Pitt as a package deal with Notre Dame, I was told, is rubbish.

Over in the SEC, where expansion would enable the league to re-work the league’s TV contracts …

One source said the conference is targeting Missouri as the 14th member, which makes tons of sense based on what I’ve been told – and have mentioned on the Hotline.

[Babs]

And like Jay says, as long as they're in the bottom half of earners and the conference stays together, it's a net financial win for the remaining schools. Sorry, Babs--you know math doesn't lie.

Your math assumes that the revenue stays constant in spite of the lost teams and lost regional impact, and that the conference doesn't invite replacements with whom they must share that revenue.

[kccougar]

I have been told by several sources that BYU is very happy with its status as a football Independent and having its Olympic sports in the West Coast Conference – the school and the league share many of the same values.

In other words, he read BYU's press release.

[SCcoug]

The latest from Jon Wilner. I suppose this will further my reputation as the Big 12 expansion rain cloud, so I expect some of you will seek to slaughter the messenger once again.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/college...n-realignment/

Highlighted quotes:

[USUC]

The latest from Jon Wilner. I suppose this will further my reputation as the Big 12 expansion rain cloud, so I expect some of you will seek to slaughter the messenger once again.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/college...n-realignment/

Highlighted quotes:

:finger3: you Larry Scott!