Is the expansion "domino" theory just a bunch of hot air?

[shoganai]

Two premises:

1. Nobody is going to expand if it doesn't guarantee them more money.

2. There are very few schools out there who command that guarantee. Texas and Notre Dame might be the only two.

Sure, the Big 10 might get a few more dollars with Missouri, but who else?

The SEC is already paying out close to what the Pac-16 claims it would. Don't tell me UVA and VaTech are going to make that big of a difference.

Everywhere I go I read about this "domino" effect, but nobody ever puts any facts out to back it up.

Conclusion: The armageddon predictions of a domino effect might just be overstated. It could be that the Pac-16 makes a huge expansion and the Big 10 makes minimal additions with the Big 12 picking up the pieces. But, everybody else might just stay put.

Somebody show me the facts as to why that's unlikely...

[UtahDan]

My take as of right now is that the whole thing seems predicated on the Big 12 flying apart. I will believe that when I see it.

[Coach McGuirk]

Too much speculation for something not to happen. Add to that the fact that denials are starting to go away, and people are starting to acknowledge talks, makes me believe something is going down. I think it starts next week.

Speculation continues to swirl around the future make-up of the Pac-10 and Big 12 as both conferences hold meetings to discuss what's next in college sports' impending game of musical chairs.
Add to that a report Friday from the Columbus Dispatch that Ohio State president Gordon Gee has had an e-mail conversation about expansion with his counterpart at Texas, William Powers, and the Big Ten's future is also in the news.
The Big 12, meeting this week in Kansas City amid rumors of a breakup, seems to have come out intact -- for now.
Commissioner Don Beebe said Friday that he is "comfortable" the league will remain intact.
Nevertheless,Beebe failed in four days of league meetings to get a commitment that all 12 schools would spurn whatever invitations might come in from other leagues looking to expand.

Pac-10, Big 12, Big Ten conference expansion speculation swirls - ESPN

[Top Ute]

Two premises:

1. Nobody is going to expand if it doesn't guarantee them more money.

2. There are very few schools out there who command that guarantee. Texas and Notre Dame might be the only two.

Sure, the Big 10 might get a few more dollars with Missouri, but who else?

The SEC is already paying out close to what the Pac-16 claims it would. Don't tell me UVA and VaTech are going to make that big of a difference.

Everywhere I go I read about this "domino" effect, but nobody ever puts any facts out to back it up.

Conclusion: The armageddon predictions of a domino effect might just be overstated. It could be that the Pac-16 makes a huge expansion and the Big 10 makes minimal additions with the Big 12 picking up the pieces. But, everybody else might just stay put.

Somebody show me the facts as to why that's unlikely...

Fact: A championship game is a money maker in the Big 10.

Fact: They only need one team to get to 12.

Fact: The BTN is a cash machine that has wildly exceeded the expectations of the Big 10 decision makers, and whose full potential has not been tapped.

All of that points to the Big 10 expanding. By how much, who knows?

With that, the Pac-10 will expand. The Pac-10 will not be trumped by the Big 10 in matters such as these. Adding two more teams is not difficult, as there are several quality candidates.

Personally, the talk of a 16-team Pac-10 is overblown. All of these rumors/ideas are coming from Texas as a power play to keep the other schools in line. Texas looked into the future when it envisions a decimated Big 12 (decimated: more than 2 teams leave in expansion), and saw a slightly better version of the Southwest Conference -- a situation that essentially made Texas a non-factor in major college football for a decade-plus.

Texas owes almost its entire standing today to the formation of the Big 12. They will do anything to maintain the status quo, and that includes leaking rumors, stomping on its bully pulpit and flexing its muscle. Only Texas could concoct a rumor that has Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in the Pac-10. That Texas A&M is flirting with the idea of going to the SEC underscores the point that the Big 12 schools are tired of Texas. Now it's the 'Horns job to get everyone back in line.

While Texas controls the keys to expansion, it is a desperate institution that will do anything to maintain the status quo. That includes burning bridges with Pac-10 officials by leaking stuff to the media, and insisting on the inclusion of schools it knows the Pac-10 would never want to take.

With the timing of certain major TV contracts set to expire in 12-18 months, timing indicates that if there are major changes, they will happen this summer. I am 100 percent certain of it.