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SU's and CJ's post on recruiting struck my curiosity. I've always wondered how recruiting stars translate to "success" after signing day, so I ran the HS stars of this year's AP All American team and 24 players from the first round of the 2008 NFL draft. I stopped at 24 players, because I got bored.
The HS star rankings are from Rivals and I'm only showing counts by ranking.
AP All Americans
Not Rated: 2
2 Stars: None
3 Stars: 10
4 Stars: 8
5 Stars: 5
2008 NFL Draft - First Round (only 24 players; I stopped from boredom)
Not Rated: 2
2 Stars: 5
3 Stars: 4
4 Stars: 9
5 Stars: 4
I don't conclude too much from the data – there are lots of variables to factor, i.e. most of the All Americans come from conferences with heavy media coverage, and there are fewer 5 stars than 2 or 3 in the body of NCAA players, etc.
Many of the fives seem to bubble up well, based on their limited numbers.
I do find the dispersion of stars in the draft interesting. 7 NRs or 2s in the first round - almost as many as the 4 stars (there may be more, if I go through the entire list).
The HS star rankings are from Rivals and I'm only showing counts by ranking.
AP All Americans
Not Rated: 2
2 Stars: None
3 Stars: 10
4 Stars: 8
5 Stars: 5
2008 NFL Draft - First Round (only 24 players; I stopped from boredom)
Not Rated: 2
2 Stars: 5
3 Stars: 4
4 Stars: 9
5 Stars: 4
I don't conclude too much from the data – there are lots of variables to factor, i.e. most of the All Americans come from conferences with heavy media coverage, and there are fewer 5 stars than 2 or 3 in the body of NCAA players, etc.
Many of the fives seem to bubble up well, based on their limited numbers.
I do find the dispersion of stars in the draft interesting. 7 NRs or 2s in the first round - almost as many as the 4 stars (there may be more, if I go through the entire list).