BCS Fairness

[Hot Lunch]

Don't forget that TCU finishes with Wyoming and New Mexico. Even with convincing victories against the two I would guess that with the hit to their computer rankings they drop out of the top 10 of the BCS standings.

It will hurt their rankings but it won't drop them out of the top 10 of the BCS standings.

[DU Ute]

It will hurt their rankings but it won't drop them out of the top 10 of the BCS standings.

I was factoring in the loss this Saturday

[Hot Lunch]

I was factoring in the loss this Saturday

Ooooooohhhhhh. I understand now.

[DU Ute]

Ooooooohhhhhh. I understand now.

Not my best work, I'll admit.

[pelagius]

I haven't been convince otherwise.

Where is the math (projection) to back your view.

<summons pelagius>

I'm not going to run simulations but it is possible for Cincy to leap frog TCU even if the voting polls keep the current order between the two and they both win out (and Texas loses). In the formula for the BCS the ordinal rankings do not matter directly. Suppose TCU is ranked 2 and Cincy is ranked 3 in both the Harris and the Coaches poll. Most would think this would make it very hard for TCU not to go to the championship game (i.e., their computer ranking would have to be really lagging). However, what matters in the formula is the voting points. If TCU is like 2650 is the Harris poll and Cincy is like 2625 and some similiar difference for the coaches poll exits then Cincy won't need much to actually pass TCU in the BCS rank. A pretty small advantage in the computer model average rank would do it. Cincy is already ahead of TCU in the computer model ranking. A Utah win will close the gap this week. A Utah win is better than a West virginia win. However, as others have pointed out the last two weeks of the season are going to hurt TCU in the computer models.

Thus, I would guess to hold off an undefeated Cincy (assuming a Texas lose) TCU needs to not only be 2/2 in the voting poll but they need some good distance in terms of voting points with Cincy.

That said, if Cincy actually did leap frog TCU this way I wouldn't consider it an example of anti-non-BCS team bias. It would just be an example of how there is noise in the process and that often a very deserving team gets screwed when you try to pick the two best of anything by voting and computer model.

[jay santos]

I'm not going to run simulations but it is possible for Cincy to leap frog TCU even if the voting polls keep the current order between the two and they both win out (and Texas loses). In the formula for the BCS the ordinal rankings do not matter directly. Suppose TCU is ranked 2 and Cincy is ranked 3 in both the Harris and the Coaches poll. Most would think this would make it very hard for TCU not to go to the championship game (i.e., their computer ranking would have to be really lagging). However, what matters in the formula is the voting points. If TCU is like 2650 is the Harris poll and Cincy is like 2625 and some similiar difference for the coaches poll exits then Cincy won't need much to actually pass TCU in the BCS rank. A pretty small advantage in the computer model average rank would do it. Cincy is already ahead of TCU in the computer model ranking. A Utah win will close the gap this week. A Utah win is better than a West virginia win. However, as others have pointed out the last two weeks of the season are going to hurt TCU in the computer models.

Thus, I would guess to hold off an undefeated Cincy (assuming a Texas lose) TCU needs to not only be 2/2 in the voting poll but they need some good distance in terms of voting points with Cincy.

That said, if Cincy actually did leap frog TCU this way I wouldn't consider it an example of anti-non-BCS team bias. It would just be an example of how there is noise in the process and that often a very deserving team gets screwed when you try to pick the two best of anything by voting and computer model.

I hadn't thought through this with the new BCS standings but you're right. Using the % of total votes does water down the difference between 1 and 2, which is much different than how they used to do it.

[TheBYUGuy]

Why is there so much discussion about Texas losing? When is Texas going to lose, and how is a Texas loss more likely than a TCU or Cincy loss?

[jay santos]

Why is there so much discussion about Texas losing? When is Texas going to lose, and how is a Texas loss more likely than a TCU or Cincy loss?

Because a Texas loss could enable the most interesting event ever to occur in an athletic conference BYU was a part of.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

I have been wondering today, why does the BCS need to be fair? That in itself is a pretty horrible argument. Many cry for a playoff, but it wouldn't be fair. Someone would get to play closer to home, or have a bye, or some kind of advantage.

The NCAA tournament isn't fair. Some teams get to play in the same city they play their regular season games in, or BYU in the first round.

The SuperBowl isn't fair. The game is longer because of extended commercials, always played in a warm weather city, always has a bye before it, etc. Some of those factors are always bound to help one team more than the other.

[il Padrino Ute]

I have been wondering today, why does the BCS need to be fair? That in itself is a pretty horrible argument. Many cry for a playoff, but it wouldn't be fair. Someone would get to play closer to home, or have a bye, or some kind of advantage.

The NCAA tournament isn't fair. Some teams get to play in the same city they play their regular season games in, or BYU in the first round.

The SuperBowl isn't fair. The game is longer because of extended commercials, always played in a warm weather city, always has a bye before it, etc. Some of those factors are always bound to help one team more than the other.

Hasn't the SB been played in the Metrodome?

[DU Ute]

I have been wondering today, why does the BCS need to be fair? That in itself is a pretty horrible argument. Many cry for a playoff, but it wouldn't be fair. Someone would get to play closer to home, or have a bye, or some kind of advantage.

The NCAA tournament isn't fair. Some teams get to play in the same city they play their regular season games in, or BYU in the first round.

The SuperBowl isn't fair. The game is longer because of extended commercials, always played in a warm weather city, always has a bye before it, etc. Some of those factors are always bound to help one team more than the other.

Well done!

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Hasn't the SB been played in the Metrodome?

My apologies, you are correct. My intention was that it would be in nice weather, or in the Metrodome or Superdome cases weather controlled. Clearly takes away an advantage a team like New England would have of playing a snow and cold weather championship game.

[TheBYUGuy]

Because a Texas loss could enable the most interesting event ever to occur in an athletic conference BYU was a part of.

Baylor, Kansas, A&M. They are a combined 4-11 against the Big 12 this year. Kansas State at 6-4 leads the Big 12 North.

It seems just as likely that Florida or Alabama lose a game and then go win the SEC Title game, but everyone is talking about this mysterious game that Texas is going to lose. Oh well.

[TripletDaddy]

I have been wondering today, why does the BCS need to be fair? That in itself is a pretty horrible argument. Many cry for a playoff, but it wouldn't be fair. Someone would get to play closer to home, or have a bye, or some kind of advantage.

The NCAA tournament isn't fair. Some teams get to play in the same city they play their regular season games in, or BYU in the first round.

The SuperBowl isn't fair. The game is longer because of extended commercials, always played in a warm weather city, always has a bye before it, etc. Some of those factors are always bound to help one team more than the other.

The BCS actually is very fair. It represents the best of the free market....desirable commodities joining forces to create a product that is highly viable in the marketplace.

The outrage should be aimed at inept non-BCS conference commissioners. Why did they not lobby for inclusion when this deal was brewing? Probably because they had zero leverage to be included.

After this year's run by TCU, I am now convinced more than ever (not entirely, though) that the BCS actually is a much better alternative than the prior system.

I used to want a playoff, but I no longer believe it to be feasible for fans. It would be nice to figure out a way to pull that off, though.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

The BCS actually is very fair. It represents the best of the free market....desirable commodities joining forces to create a product that is highly viable in the marketplace.

The outrage should be aimed at inept non-BCS conference commissioners. Why did they not lobby for inclusion when this deal was brewing? Probably because they had zero leverage to be included.

After this year's run by TCU, I am now convinced more than ever (not entirely, though) that the BCS actually is a much better alternative than the prior system.

I used to want a playoff, but I no longer believe it to be feasible for fans. It would be nice to figure out a way to pull that off, though.

I also used to want a playoff, I even donated some money to that CougarBoard crazy guy that had his CF16 website. (Tom Curren? Was that it?)

I also agree that the BCS represents the unregulated free market. Which makes me laugh at CB which is ravenously right wing, allegedly, always complaining about it. It seems those that always want a free market and scream about how regulation just screws things up, always find something where they whine about how it should be regulated.