Bronco's record--against the top 25 and below

[jay santos]

I think this whole Barometer U thing has some validity, and I also think it's as catchy as the H1N1. But who knows, really? Except for the anointed few, don't most teams lose to the good teams and beat the bad teams? Is BYU any different in this regard than, for example, Illinois? Or Murray State?

However, for shiznits and giggles, I decided to check out the accuracy of the BYU as Barometer U vs. the Mighty Utes. The idea, if I understand it correctly, is that BYU beats bad teams, average teams, above average teams, and pretty good teams, but loses to good, really good, and Alabama Ass Kicker teams. They are the barometer. If you beat BYU, you are probably good. If you lose to BYU, you top out somewhere between above average and pretty good.

I'm using only stats since Chris Yergensen invented football in 1993. Since then, Utah's seasons from best to worst (in order, presented in complete accuracy without room for argument):

2004 (12-0)
2008 (13-0)
1994 (10-2)
2003 (10-2)
1999 (9-3)
2007 (9-4)
2006 (8-5)
2001 (8-4)
1996 (8-4)
2005 (7-5)
1998 (7-4)
1995 (7-4)
1997 (6-5)
2002 (5-6)
2000 (4-7)

In Utah's five best years, they beat BYU every year. Four of those five ended ranked, and the other was just out of the polls after squeaking past Fresno in the Veg. So, pretty clear that when Utah ends up ranked at the end of the year, they beat BYU.

The next four teams on the list (2007, 2006, 2001, 1996) all lost to the Mighty Cougars in BYU's four best seasons since Yergensen's Invention. All four of those BYU teams ended the year ranked, even after the Magical Hawaiian Death Turf episode in 2001. I would say Utah's teams each of those years were pretty good, but I don't really know how BYU is the barometer here. 1996, BYU was just better. The other years, I'm not sure Utah ends up ranked by beating the Mighty Cougars. Maybe 2007 does. The others, no.

In the rest of the years (2005, 1998, 1995, 1997, 2002, 2000) Utah is 4-2 vs. BYU, but none of those teams would be considered anywhere better than above average, so who gives a Sam Hill if BYU's the barometer or not.

Utah has beaten the BYU in two seasons when the Cougars ended up ranked (1994, 2008). In both of those years, Utah was ranked higher.

BYU has never beaten a Utah team that ended the season ranked.

So, the Mighty Cougs seem to be a pretty accurate barometer of Utah's success, at least on the high side. Utah beats BYU in every year they end up ranked.

This year will be an interesting test. At worst, I think Utah will be 9-2 going into the game in Provo. I can't see how they wouldn't be ranked at 9-2, so a win and 10-2 puts them in the top 25. A loss and 9-3 probably knocks them out. Pretty good barometer there.

This is where I say go post this on a Ute board, nobody cares. But instead they rename a good Cougar board cougaruteforum. And Utes shit all over our threads and Cougars stand by and let them, even congratulate them. Wonderful.

[Senioritis]

This is where I say go post this on a Ute board, nobody cares. But instead they rename a good Cougar board cougaruteforum. And Utes shit all over our threads and Cougars stand by and let them, even congratulate them. Wonderful.

POTD!!!!!

[Goatnapper'96]

This is where I say go post this on a Ute board, nobody cares. But instead they rename a good Cougar board cougaruteforum. And Utes shit all over our threads and Cougars stand by and let them, even congratulate them. Wonderful.

Jay, deep down inside in places you don't want to talk about you love Senioritis, you need Senioritis. I would just prefer you said "thank you" and went about your business.

[il Padrino Ute]

This is where I say go post this on a Ute board, nobody cares. But instead they rename a good Cougar board cougaruteforum. And Utes shit all over our threads and Cougars stand by and let them, even congratulate them. Wonderful.

Perhaps I am wrong, but the sports talk here was never meant to be solely BYU.

Of course, if you're joking, then please disregard the above sentence and accept my kudos.

[jay santos]

Jay, deep down inside in places you don't want to talk about you love Senioritis, you need Senioritis. I would just prefer you said "thank you" and went about your business.

I'm sure senioritis is a great fella. I just get sick of everything being about the U. I don't watch the U. I don't know their players. I don't need the U's take on every fricking BYU issue. Sorry guys, still love you. When I would like a Utah-BYU comparison, you'll be the first I ask.

[jay santos]

Perhaps I am wrong, but the sports talk here was never meant to be solely BYU.

Of course, if you're joking, then please disregard the above sentence and accept my kudos.

Exactly

[PaloAltoCougar]

Jay, deep down inside in places you don't want to talk about you love Senioritis, you need Senioritis. I would just prefer you said "thank you" and went about your business.

I know Jay's just screwin' around, but if MRD's and Senioritis' three posts constitute "shit all over our threads," I say let's go over to Utefans and bring hither Moose's Whistle and Newmanscott for some defecation of global proportions.

[il Padrino Ute]

I know Jay's just screwin' around, but if MRD's and Senioritis' three posts constitute "shit all over our threads," I say let's go over to Utefans and bring hither Moose's Whistle and Newmanscott for some defecation of global proportions.

I'll give you $20 to not bring Moose over here and will give you $30 to make him leave Utefans permanently.

[SoCalCoug]

Bronco's five years: 1.0 teams per year in top 25 outside of BYU (assumes Utah stays in)
Lavell '99- '00: .86 per year

Not a significant difference. And I think we can agree the bottom 6 of the conference has been equally putrid throughout the time period.

I don't think throwing BYU out of the equation is rational. If want to look at the strength of the conference as a whole, you just can't throw out one team from the calculation - if you're saying BYU was ranked because it was feeding off the bad teams, then in the years BYU wasn't so good, other teams were feeding off of them. For instance, just a glance at the AP rankings shows a huge difference - during LaVell's last years, BYU only appeared in the top 25 one time in the final poll - in 1996. And if BYU moves up at least one spot by the final poll, BYU would have ended the season in the top 25 4 of the 5 years under Bronco.

If you're gauging the relative strength of the conference, I think you've got to see how many conference teams (whether BYU or not) finished in the top 25. That happened 5 times during LaVell's last 5 seasons, or 1.0 per season. During Bronco's tenure (if the season ended today), that has happened 9 times, or 1.8 times per season - almost double the rate of LaVell's last 5 years.

And look at the highest rank of conference teams during those two periods.

LaVell's last 5: 5, 17, 13, NR, 14 Avg (calling NR "26"): 15
Bronco's 1st 5: 11, 16, 14, 2, 8 Avg: 10.2

Multiple top 25 teams at the end of the season happened once during LaVell's last 5 years. It's happened 3 times during Bronco's first 5 years.

All of this speaks to the increasing strength of the conference.

I don't think it's even close that the conference during Bronco's first five years is stronger than during LaVell's last five years. Even if it the big 3 and the rest. That's better than BYU and a bunch of crap. I remember the years when the Big 8 was called the Big 3 and the little 5. It was still a major conference.

[Hallelujah]

I saw how bad things can get when Crowton was the coach. There was no guarantee that we could beat the bad teams. In fact, BYU lost to quite a few bad teams during his tenure. His failure to beat teams like UNLV and Reno is a big part of what got him fired.

Given the limited coaching pool, the only possible better coach that was realistically available was KWhitt. IIRC, BYU didn't want to pay the price for him.

Would it have paid off to go to the BCS? Do you think Whitt would have allowed FSU and TCU to take place? Do you think he heads home each night to be with his family instead of doing head coach types of things? Can he motivate vs. Bronco? It may have been worth the price. He sure was Lavell's choice which is why Lavell and Bronco aren't that close (per a friend who played 4 years ago on Bronco's team).

My guess is that Bronco spent more time with his family than I did with my family the past 2 1/2 years. Three hours each day including Sundays. I didn't get paid. Bronco's got a pretty good gig. Act like a DI head coach! Didn't he say once he hates game days? Well it's showing against good teams. The team has taken on that persona.

[Fiyero]

This is where I say go post this on a Ute board, nobody cares. But instead they rename a good Cougar board cougaruteforum. And Utes shit all over our threads and Cougars stand by and let them, even congratulate them. Wonderful.

He was testing the barometer theory. He was putting to example the very theory within this thread. What better way to measure it than with a conference opponent who BYU faces every year? Should he have randomly chosen one of the 7* other teams in order to avoid over-sensitive feelings?

*Better make it 6; don't want to mention TCU right now

[jay santos]

I don't think throwing BYU out of the equation is rational. If want to look at the strength of the conference as a whole, you just can't throw out one team from the calculation - if you're saying BYU was ranked because it was feeding off the bad teams, then in the years BYU wasn't so good, other teams were feeding off of them. For instance, just a glance at the AP rankings shows a huge difference - during LaVell's last years, BYU only appeared in the top 25 one time in the final poll - in 1996. And if BYU moves up at least one spot by the final poll, BYU would have ended the season in the top 25 4 of the 5 years under Bronco.

If you're gauging the relative strength of the conference, I think you've got to see how many conference teams (whether BYU or not) finished in the top 25. That happened 5 times during LaVell's last 5 seasons, or 1.0 per season. During Bronco's tenure (if the season ended today), that has happened 9 times, or 1.8 times per season - almost double the rate of LaVell's last 5 years.

And look at the highest rank of conference teams during those two periods.

LaVell's last 5: 5, 17, 13, NR, 14 Avg (calling NR "26"): 15
Bronco's 1st 5: 11, 16, 14, 2, 8 Avg: 10.2

Multiple top 25 teams at the end of the season happened once during LaVell's last 5 years. It's happened 3 times during Bronco's first 5 years.

All of this speaks to the increasing strength of the conference.

I don't think it's even close that the conference during Bronco's first five years is stronger than during LaVell's last five years. Even if it the big 3 and the rest. That's better than BYU and a bunch of crap. I remember the years when the Big 8 was called the Big 3 and the little 5. It was still a major conference.

I took BYU out because we're measuring the conference strength from BYU perspective as an SOS factor and to measure relative difficulty to attain a conference championship or a good conference record.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Remember what a jerk Mike Bellotti was for saying he didn't think BYU would be at the top of the P10?

[falafel]

Remember what a jerk Mike Bellotti was for saying he didn't think BYU would be at the top of the P10?

Yes. What about it?

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Yes. What about it?

I was just pointing out to Santos that other people who have suggested what his post suggests, that BYU would be a middle of the road BCS team, have been proven wrong in the past.