Big-Money Busts?
Jimmer Fredette, Sacramento Kings
The Jimmer would earn $3.1 million under the terms of his Year 4 option, and you can get better players for that kind of money. Mike Malone, the team's new head coach, put the kibosh on the whole "Jimmer is a point guard!" thing over the weekend by excluding him from Malone's personal list of point guards on the roster.
Everyone knows Fredette's issues on defense. The Kings have to hide him on either a punchless (and hopefully undersize) wing player, and if that option is unavailable, pray the opposing point guard is among the league's least threatening. But even non-threats become dangerous against the most glaring defensive liabilities. Bigger shooting guards without much off-the-dribble panache — think Danny Green or Thabo Sefolosha — can see the rim better over diminutive Jimmer, and point guards without night-to-night post-up games can fulfill their fantasies in the paint against him. Waterbug point guards know they can leave Jimmer in the dust on pick-and-rolls; he gets hung up badly on screens, and lacks the start-and-stop speed to catch up:
But the man can shoot, and teams need shooting more than ever against defenses that overload the strong side and focus on taking away a team's best options. Jimmer works best as an off-ball shooter, but playing the passive spot-up role requires someone else to play point guard, and most Jimmer–point guard combinations will be borderline unplayable defensively.5
But Jimmer can handle the ball fairly well. Defenders have to go over screens against him in the pick-and-roll, presenting Jimmer with the shot that will keep him relevant: the off-the-dribble 3-pointer in situations like this:
The key might be what else he can do with the ball, especially when defenses take away that off-the-bounce triple. Big men guarding screeners step beyond their comfort zones to combat Jimmer's shooting, just as they do against Stephen Curry, and Jimmer can take advantage by turning the corner on them or splitting traps:
He's been able to get into the lane now and then for floaters or drop-off passes to big men lurking along the baseline.
The flip side: When a pick-and-roll doesn't produce an easy opening, either via shaky help defense or a rock-solid screen that nails Jimmer's guy, he doesn't have the jets to produce much of value. Defenders can stay with him and block off the lane, resulting in very tough leaners and step-back jumpers. He has few weapons with which he can puncture the heart of a defense. If Jimmer can bag the ultra-tough misses and focus on the good, he's got a role in the league. But given his massive disadvantage on defense, it's probably not a role that should ever pay $3.1 million.
That price matters to Sacto. The Kings aren't actually slated to have any cap room next summer once you factor in cap holds for Cousins, Greivis Vasquez, and Patrick Patterson, and even if you assume they renounce the latter two and buy out John Salmons, they'll still come in only about $5 million under the projected cap.
Other teams are circling, curious whether they can land the heralded Jimmer for a song — a no-harm, no-foul gamble. Will the Kings bite?
Jimmer Fredette, Sacramento Kings
The Jimmer would earn $3.1 million under the terms of his Year 4 option, and you can get better players for that kind of money. Mike Malone, the team's new head coach, put the kibosh on the whole "Jimmer is a point guard!" thing over the weekend by excluding him from Malone's personal list of point guards on the roster.
Everyone knows Fredette's issues on defense. The Kings have to hide him on either a punchless (and hopefully undersize) wing player, and if that option is unavailable, pray the opposing point guard is among the league's least threatening. But even non-threats become dangerous against the most glaring defensive liabilities. Bigger shooting guards without much off-the-dribble panache — think Danny Green or Thabo Sefolosha — can see the rim better over diminutive Jimmer, and point guards without night-to-night post-up games can fulfill their fantasies in the paint against him. Waterbug point guards know they can leave Jimmer in the dust on pick-and-rolls; he gets hung up badly on screens, and lacks the start-and-stop speed to catch up:
But the man can shoot, and teams need shooting more than ever against defenses that overload the strong side and focus on taking away a team's best options. Jimmer works best as an off-ball shooter, but playing the passive spot-up role requires someone else to play point guard, and most Jimmer–point guard combinations will be borderline unplayable defensively.5
But Jimmer can handle the ball fairly well. Defenders have to go over screens against him in the pick-and-roll, presenting Jimmer with the shot that will keep him relevant: the off-the-dribble 3-pointer in situations like this:
The key might be what else he can do with the ball, especially when defenses take away that off-the-bounce triple. Big men guarding screeners step beyond their comfort zones to combat Jimmer's shooting, just as they do against Stephen Curry, and Jimmer can take advantage by turning the corner on them or splitting traps:
He's been able to get into the lane now and then for floaters or drop-off passes to big men lurking along the baseline.
The flip side: When a pick-and-roll doesn't produce an easy opening, either via shaky help defense or a rock-solid screen that nails Jimmer's guy, he doesn't have the jets to produce much of value. Defenders can stay with him and block off the lane, resulting in very tough leaners and step-back jumpers. He has few weapons with which he can puncture the heart of a defense. If Jimmer can bag the ultra-tough misses and focus on the good, he's got a role in the league. But given his massive disadvantage on defense, it's probably not a role that should ever pay $3.1 million.
That price matters to Sacto. The Kings aren't actually slated to have any cap room next summer once you factor in cap holds for Cousins, Greivis Vasquez, and Patrick Patterson, and even if you assume they renounce the latter two and buy out John Salmons, they'll still come in only about $5 million under the projected cap.
Other teams are circling, curious whether they can land the heralded Jimmer for a song — a no-harm, no-foul gamble. Will the Kings bite?
Comment