New NFL overtime rule

[Jacob]

The new rule, starting now, is as follows:

IF the first possession in OT results in a FG,
THEN the game will continue and the other team will have a possession.
IF team 2 also scores a FG, traditional sudden death play continues. A TD on either possession 1 or 2 wins the game.

Given this rule, what is your decision based on the following down and distances on the 1st possession?

4th and 2 from the 15
4th and 1 from inside the 15
4th and 2 from the 5
4th and 1 from the 5

I think I go for it on everything except 4th and 2 from the 15. My reasoning is that the likelihood of converting a 4th and 1 is greater than the likelihood of the other team scoring a FG during their next possession.

As for the 4th and 2 scenario. I like my odds of stopping the team from scoring a FG starting at their own 5 if I fail to convert.

I'm probably not being smart here and I'd first want to look at the stats regarding how often teams score a FG in OT from a given field position. A coach could very well lose his job over losing after failing to convert on a 4th and 1 in OT in the playoffs.

Another question is what to do if you win the coin toss. But I think this one is easy. You still take the ball. Its not like college where you are going to get your shot no matter what.

[Top Ute]

The new rule, starting now, is as follows:

IF the first possession in OT results in a FG,
THEN the game will continue and the other team will have a possession.
IF team 2 also scores a FG, traditional sudden death play continues. A TD on either possession 1 or 2 wins the game.

Given this rule, what is your decision based on the following down and distances on the 1st possession?

4th and 2 from the 15
4th and 1 from inside the 15
4th and 2 from the 5
4th and 1 from the 5

I think I go for it on everything except 4th and 2 from the 15. My reasoning is that the likelihood of converting a 4th and 1 is greater than the likelihood of the other team scoring a FG during their next possession.

As for the 4th and 2 scenario. I like my odds of stopping the team from scoring a FG starting at their own 5 if I fail to convert.

I'm probably not being smart here and I'd first want to look at the stats regarding how often teams score a FG in OT from a given field position. A coach could very well lose his job over losing after failing to convert on a 4th and 1 in OT in the playoffs.

Another question is what to do if you win the coin toss. But I think this one is easy. You still take the ball. Its not like college where you are going to get your shot no matter what.

4th-and-1 conversion rates have been in the high 40-low 50 percent range for several years. I'm guessing that's a slightly better rate than drives that end in scores (because if you don't score, losing by FG or TD is irrelevant). From the 5, I'm definitely considering it. From the 15, I'd take other factors into play before deciding.

As for the coin flip, you do get your shot no matter what. If I'm in Buffalo in December with a 35 MPH wind, I kick off and take the wind at my back. It's not nearly as automatic as you make it seem, IMO.

[Sizzle]

The new rule, starting now, is as follows:

IF the first possession in OT results in a FG,
THEN the game will continue and the other team will have a possession.
IF team 2 also scores a FG, traditional sudden death play continues. A TD on either possession 1 or 2 wins the game.

Given this rule, what is your decision based on the following down and distances on the 1st possession?

4th and 2 from the 15
4th and 1 from inside the 15
4th and 2 from the 5
4th and 1 from the 5

I think I go for it on everything except 4th and 2 from the 15. My reasoning is that the likelihood of converting a 4th and 1 is greater than the likelihood of the other team scoring a FG during their next possession.

As for the 4th and 2 scenario. I like my odds of stopping the team from scoring a FG starting at their own 5 if I fail to convert.

I'm probably not being smart here and I'd first want to look at the stats regarding how often teams score a FG in OT from a given field position. A coach could very well lose his job over losing after failing to convert on a 4th and 1 in OT in the playoffs.

If I'm in the playoffs where you win and you advance, and you lose and you go home, AND I get the ball first, I probably kick the FG in all of those situations with the possible exception of 4th and 1 inside the 5. A FG isn't a forgone conclusion in that case and the worst thing to do IMO is give your opponent an opportunity where you significantly reduce the amount of yards they need to travel in order to win the game. Inside the 5 yard line that risk is mitigated slightly as you are still leaving them roughly 60-65 yards to have to go to be in FG range.

I think there are a lot of factors at play though, mainly how good is your O-Line, how good is their D-Line, how has the pace of the game gone so far, how good is your defense, what is the likelihood of you holding them to a FG on the next possession, etc. I don't think there is a cut and dry right answer in any situation though. It is absolutely a huge risk going for it in situations like that instead of taking the points.

Another question is what to do if you win the coin toss. But I think this one is easy. You still take the ball. Its not like college where you are going to get your shot no matter what.

Absolutely you take the ball first. If you kick the FG and the other team matches, you then have the ball first in a sudden death situation. This to me is even more of a no-brainer IMO.

[Jacob]

the worst thing to do IMO is give your opponent an opportunity where you significantly reduce the amount of yards they need to travel in order to win the game.

That's why I figured giving them the ball at the 5 is a better option than kicking it off and risking a good kick return. This brings into play even more factors than the ones you listed:
Can your kicker get a touchback (wind?)? How good is their kick returner?
But you'd have to have to be a pretty big gambler to risk leaving points on the board in what is still mostly a sudden death overtime, right?

[Sizzle]

That's why I figured giving them the ball at the 5 is a better option than kicking it off and risking a good kick return. This brings into play even more factors than the ones you listed:
Can your kicker get a touchback (wind?)? How good is their kick returner?
But you'd have to have to be a pretty big gambler to risk leaving points on the board in what is still mostly a sudden death overtime, right?

I think the more interesting scenario is what do you do if you are in that position and have the ball second. The potential to give the ball up when ANY score loses the game for you, is it worth the gamble? 4th and inches at the 5, do you play for the win or do you kick the FG to extend the game? I think in that situation I'm more willing to go for it and end the game there than kicking the FG and giving the other team the ball with a chance for the win.

It adds an interesting dynamic. I wish they wouldn't do sudden death, but would just extend the game another quarter. Yes, it adds more toll, but it seems to be the more fair way of doing things.