Redskins and Nov. 16th

[SteelBlue]

Heard on NPR today that in their entire history, the Redskins have played 10 games on the date Nov. 16. Including last night, they have lost all 10 times. Meaningless, but kind of fascinating.

[pelagius]

Heard on NPR today that in their entire history, the Redskins have played 10 games on the date Nov. 16. Including last night, they have lost all 10 times. Meaningless, but kind of fascinating.

I'm going to regret doing this. Suppose that Redskins had about a 50% chance of winning each of these games (and assume independence for each game). Then the probability that of losing 10 in a row for a specific date is

0.5^10 = 0.0009765625

However, the news would report and talk about this if they lost 10 in a row for any date. Well, let's suppose they have played roughly 10 games on each date during the season and season is about 112 days. If so then the porabability that we observe at least one date where they lost 10 in a row would be

1 - (1-0.0009765625)^112 = 10.4%

1-(1-the proability that they never lose 10 in a row on a specific date)^112

Then add to the fact that it wouldn't really matter if this happened to the Redskins. The press would talk about it if it happened to the bears or anybody else. Suppose there are 10 teams that have been around enough to play 10 games on each of these dates. The probability that one of these teams has a single date with 10 loses in a row is

1-(1-0.104)^10 = 66.7%

Be careful or I will start giving you the odds that coincidences happen and then those wont really seem like coincidences anymore.

[DrumNFeather]

Heard on NPR today that in their entire history, the Redskins have played 10 games on the date Nov. 16. Including last night, they have lost all 10 times. Meaningless, but kind of fascinating.

It's like the election result stat with the Redskins...meaningless but fascinating at the same time. Hopefully no more Nov. 16 games for a while.

[SteelBlue]

I'm going to regret doing this. Suppose that Redskins had about a 50% chance of winning each of these games (and assume independence for each game). Then the probability that of losing 10 in a row for a specific date is

0.5^10 = 0.0009765625

However, the news would report and talk about this if they lost 10 in a row for any date. Well, let's suppose they have played roughly 10 games on each date during the season and season is about 112 days. If so then the porabability that we observe at least one date where they lost 10 in a row would be

1 - (1-0.0009765625)^112 = 10.4%

1-(1-the proability that they never lose 10 in a row on a specific date)^112

Then add to the fact that it wouldn't really matter if this happened to the Redskins. The press would talk about it if it happened to the bears or anybody else. Suppose there are 10 teams that have been around enough to play 10 games on each of these dates. The probability that one of these teams has a single date with 10 loses in a row is

1-(1-0.104)^10 = 66.7%

Be careful or I will start giving you the odds that coincidences happen and then those wont really seem the coincidences anymore.

Wow. I never would have guessed.

[pelagius]

Wow. I never would have guessed.

I have the ability to suck the magic out of most moments ... it's a gift.

[creekster]

i have the ability to suck the magic out of most moments ... It's a gift.

lol.

[BigFatMeanie]

I have the ability to suck the magic out of most moments ... it's a gift.

When your bright eyed kids gaze in awe and wonder at a living room full of presents on Christmas morning, do you say, "You know kids, the probability that a human can survive at the North Pole is approximately..."

[pelagius]

When your bright eyed kids gaze in awe and wonder at a living room full of presents on Christmas morning, do you say, "You know kids, the probability that a human can survive at the North Pole is approximately..."

Exactly and

"Dad, I am doing something good for the earth, I am recycling."

"Great Sweetie, but you do realize that you can't affect the equilibrium so its irrational unless someone pays you to recycle."

[BigPiney]

Heard on NPR today that in their entire history, the Redskins have played 10 games on the date Nov. 16. Including last night, they have lost all 10 times. Meaningless, but kind of fascinating.

The main gist of the interview was talking about the 11 - 10 score from this weekend in the Steelers game and how rare that was.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=97105430