According to Rob Neyer CAIRO outperformed PECOTA last year in projecting records. I was unaware of CAIRO until the other day when I read the Neyer article. Anyway here are the early win/loss records for CAIRO and PECOTA.
CAIRO
AL West
Mariners - 86.7
Angels - 80.9
Rangers - 77.9
A's - 76.8
PECOTA
A's - 85
Rangers - 84
Mariners - 81
Angels - 77
Both have the Angels finally losing the AL West, which I agree with. PECOTA seems way too optimistic on the A's. I love the pitching that the A's have, but the offense isn't there and the A's will have their usually injury problems. 76.8 seems low to me, but 85 seems high. CAIRO seems way too pessimistic about the Rangers. My prediction Rangers win the division.
AL Central
CAIRO
White Sox - 87.9
Twins - 81.5
Indians - 76.4
Tigers - 74.5
Royals - 70.8
PECOTA
Twins - 83
White Sox - 80
Tigers - 78
Indians - 77
Royals - 74
NL East
CAIRO
Yankees - 102.1
Red Sox - 93.6
Rays - 89.2
Orioles - 69.8
Blue Jays - 66.9
PECOTA
Red Sox - 93
Yankees - 93
Rays - 92
Orioles - 78
Blue Jays - 73
PECOTA looks a lot more reasonable with the division projections here.
NL West
CAIRO
Dodgers - 87.2
Rockies - 86.1
Diamondbacks - 84.1
Giants - 75.5
Padres - 71.8
PECOTA
Dodgers - 86
Diamondbacks - 85
Rockies - 83
Giants - 82
Padres - 76
NL Central
CAIRO
Cardinals - 92.1
Reds - 85.5
Cubs - 83.7
Brewers - 81.3
Pirates - 70.2
Astros - 69.1
PECOTA
Cardinals - 86
Reds - 81
Cubs - 77
Brewers - 77
Astros - 74
Pirates - 68
NL East
CAIRO
Phillies - 91.5
Braves - 87.8
Mets - 82.2
Marlins - 73.8
Nationals - 73.2
PECOTA
Braves - 85
Phillies - 85
Nationals - 81
Mets - 78
Marlins - 76
Surprised to see that they are projecting the Nationals at 81 wins.
CAIRO
AL West
Mariners - 86.7
Angels - 80.9
Rangers - 77.9
A's - 76.8
PECOTA
A's - 85
Rangers - 84
Mariners - 81
Angels - 77
Both have the Angels finally losing the AL West, which I agree with. PECOTA seems way too optimistic on the A's. I love the pitching that the A's have, but the offense isn't there and the A's will have their usually injury problems. 76.8 seems low to me, but 85 seems high. CAIRO seems way too pessimistic about the Rangers. My prediction Rangers win the division.
AL Central
CAIRO
White Sox - 87.9
Twins - 81.5
Indians - 76.4
Tigers - 74.5
Royals - 70.8
PECOTA
Twins - 83
White Sox - 80
Tigers - 78
Indians - 77
Royals - 74
NL East
CAIRO
Yankees - 102.1
Red Sox - 93.6
Rays - 89.2
Orioles - 69.8
Blue Jays - 66.9
PECOTA
Red Sox - 93
Yankees - 93
Rays - 92
Orioles - 78
Blue Jays - 73
PECOTA looks a lot more reasonable with the division projections here.
NL West
CAIRO
Dodgers - 87.2
Rockies - 86.1
Diamondbacks - 84.1
Giants - 75.5
Padres - 71.8
PECOTA
Dodgers - 86
Diamondbacks - 85
Rockies - 83
Giants - 82
Padres - 76
NL Central
CAIRO
Cardinals - 92.1
Reds - 85.5
Cubs - 83.7
Brewers - 81.3
Pirates - 70.2
Astros - 69.1
PECOTA
Cardinals - 86
Reds - 81
Cubs - 77
Brewers - 77
Astros - 74
Pirates - 68
NL East
CAIRO
Phillies - 91.5
Braves - 87.8
Mets - 82.2
Marlins - 73.8
Nationals - 73.2
PECOTA
Braves - 85
Phillies - 85
Nationals - 81
Mets - 78
Marlins - 76
Surprised to see that they are projecting the Nationals at 81 wins.
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