The 2015 Tour De Stinkin' France Contest WITH RESULTS

[Dwight Schr-ute]

Massive heat wave across Europe. Make your picks accordingly. Sorry Quintana.

Only three Americans in the Tour this year. Lowest in a decade, I think.

How many Frenchman will make the podium this year?

[Moliere]

1. Overall Winner: Froome, Quintana, Pinot
2. Polka dot jersey: Rolland, Froome, Pinot
3. Green Jersey: Cavendish, Greiple, Sagan
4. Pick the top team based on most stage wins: Etixx Quick Step
5. Pick the Top three finishers for each of the following stages

a. Stage 1 ITT Martin, Dumoulin, Sagan
b. Stage 4 Cobbles Cancellara, Boom, Thomas
c. Stage 9 TTT Orica, SKY, Movistar
d. Stage 12 Plateau de Beille Quintana, Contador, Rolland
e. Stage 20 Alpe d’huez Froome, Quintana, Van Garderen
6. Pick the top American finisher. Van Garderen

7. Lanterne rouge (last place) by nationality for the tie-breaker Italy

[PaloAltoCougar]

We watched Clean Spirit last night, a very good documentary about Argos-Shimano during the 2013 tour (available on Netflix). With all of the drug scandals, the team ostensibly committed itself to riding clean. It was a great behind-the-scenes look at the Tour and how teams interact. I became quite impressed by Marcel Kittel and was feeling great that I had picked him for this year's green jersey until our daughter said my choice was probably a long shot given that Kittel isn't riding in this year's Tour. Thus, and for other reasons, I edited my original predictions.

I'm more interested/excited about this Tour than any in the past.

[mtnbiker]

I don't have any kind of info on the riders this year, so this is a dart throw.

1. Overall Winner: Froome, Nibali, Contador
2. Polka dot jersey: Rolland, Froome, Quintana
3. Green Jersey: Sagan, Cavendish, Degenkolb
4. Pick the top team based on most stage wins and TTT: Etixx-Quick-Step

5. Pick the Top three finishers for each of the following stages

a. Stage 1 ITT: Martin, Dumoulin, Cancellara
b. Stage 4 Cobbles: Degenkolb, Cancellara, Sagan
c. Stage 9 TTT: Sky, Tinkoff-Saxo
d. Stage 12 Plateau de Beille: Pinot, Nibali, Contador
e. Stage 20 Alpe d’huez: Froome, Contador, Quintana

6. Pick the top American finisher. van Garderen

7. Lanterne rouge (last place) by nationality for the tie-breaker: Spain

[beelzebabette]

1. Overall Winner; Pick the entire Podium.**
Contador, Quintana, Froome
2. Polka dot jersey; pick the top three
Quintana, Majka, Rodriguez

3. Green Jersey; Pick the top three
Sagan, Cavendish, Greipel
4. Pick the top team based on most stage wins (thanks BBB!) and TTT finish - Etixx Quickstep

5. Pick the Top three finishers for each of the following stages

a. Stage 1 ITT*- Tony Martin, Dumoulin, Dowsett
b. Stage 4 Cobbles - Cancellara, Chavanel (Sylvain), Stybar
c. Stage 9 TTT-Orica, Garmin, BMC
d. Stage 12 Plateau de Beille*- Quintana, Contador, Van Garderen*
e. Stage 20 Alpe d’huez*
Bardet, Rolland, Uran

6. Pick the top American finisher.**
Van Garderen
7. Lanterne rouge (last place) by nationality for the tie-breaker*
France

[creekster]

Thanks for the entries. I lacked internet access/time yesterday to do my own in time so I am not in The official contest. I'll add some picks later today for fun but not for a win.

[RC Vikings]

Pretty exciting stage today despite it being pancake flat. Nice to see Van Garderen stay in the front group today.

I'm still a little amazed by the 34.4 mph that Dennis was able to average yesterday in the ITT. Without a little tailwind I can't even get my bike up to 34.4 mph anymore let alone hold it for 15 minutes.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I'm not sure if this thread is for general TdF questions/comments (and creek's analyses), but I'm curious about teamwork and its importance. Today, a couple of riders didn't have much of a team around them while others had nearly a full complement of domestiques. My question: I assume a lone rider who lacks team support will simply latch onto a more fortunate competitor and, in effect, use that guy's team for support. What, if anything, does a team to to discourage or prevent a lone rider from mooching off their work?

And I thought it was interesting when, after a top rider flatted today, he used various team cars to help pull him back into the race. Apparently the judges don't disqualify the guy if the reason for "cheating" is to make up for a flat or other mechanical, but would do so if he had fallen behind simply because he was tired or had been riding poorly.

[mtnbiker]

I'm not sure if this thread is for general TdF questions/comments (and creek's analyses), but I'm curious about teamwork and its importance. Today, a couple of riders didn't have much of a team around them while others had nearly a full complement of domestiques. My question: I assume a lone rider who lacks team support will simply latch onto a more fortunate competitor and, in effect, use that guy's team for support. What, if anything, does a team to to discourage or prevent a lone rider from mooching off their work?

And I thought it was interesting when, after a top rider flatted today, he used various team cars to help pull him back into the race. Apparently the judges don't disqualify the guy if the reason for "cheating" is to make up for a flat or other mechanical, but would do so if he had fallen behind simply because he was tired or had been riding poorly.

A rider can draft off another team, but that's about it. They might share a water bottle, but as we saw a couple of weeks ago, if the lone rider has a flat or mechanical, he and the other team will be penalized if he accepts help. He'd have to wait for his team car or a neutral service bike. And if he gets tired and falls off the pace, there is no one to help pace him back up.

[creekster]

I'm not sure if this thread is for general TdF questions/comments (and creek's analyses), but I'm curious about teamwork and its importance. Today, a couple of riders didn't have much of a team around them while others had nearly a full complement of domestiques. My question: I assume a lone rider who lacks team support will simply latch onto a more fortunate competitor and, in effect, use that guy's team for support. What, if anything, does a team to to discourage or prevent a lone rider from mooching off their work?

And I thought it was interesting when, after a top rider flatted today, he used various team cars to help pull him back into the race. Apparently the judges don't disqualify the guy if the reason for "cheating" is to make up for a flat or other mechanical, but would do so if he had fallen behind simply because he was tired or had been riding poorly.

Teamwork is of utmost importance. The nature of the peloton and the relationships inside of it are very fluid at times. There are a lot of factors at play. How deep into the stage they are, the teams' relative goals (GC< sprint stages, etc.), where their leader is on the overall or where their best placed rider is on the particular stage. So it is impossible to say exactly how any given team might react to another rider's attempt to draft. Generally guys from teams in similar placings will work together. Except at the end of the stage, of course. There is also usually a bond between guys form the same country or using the same language (which is why they prohibit riders from other teams helping each other with bikes or wheels etc.). They discourage riders they don't want to help by literally telling them to get off their wheel, or refusing to pull, etc. If you want a long life in the peloton, and among other teams, you just don't ignore that sort of thing. Nobody likes a wheel sucker.

As to Nibali, when he flatted he did use some of the convoy cars to work back to his team. As long as he doesn't go too far in drafting on them, and as long as it is someone like nibali as opposed to a faceless domestique, they will let him get away with it. Nibali's ride was on the edge, but on stage two they are going to let him do it. Its like not calling the third foul on Lebron in the first half on hand check.

[RC Vikings]

I'm not sure if this thread is for general TdF questions/comments (and creek's analyses), but I'm curious about teamwork and its importance. Today, a couple of riders didn't have much of a team around them while others had nearly a full complement of domestiques. My question: I assume a lone rider who lacks team support will simply latch onto a more fortunate competitor and, in effect, use that guy's team for support. What, if anything, does a team to to discourage or prevent a lone rider from mooching off their work?

I found it interesting that Tinkoff was forming an echelon yesterday and Contador was telling his lead guy to move over to the other side of the road just enough so that only Tinkoff guys could get behind him. Yesterday I think Cancellara is one of the few that could hang by himself without teammates around him. Also he is no threat for the GC nor is anybody on Trek and with him in the echelon they could put time on Nibali and Quintana.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I appreciate all the comments; my learning curve remains steep. And I love the broadcasts and am looking forward to the Pyrennes. One question: with all of the detail they provide about the race, why do they rarely, if ever, show the actual speed of the riders in real time? With all of the motorcycles and the helicopter, I assume it would be easy to show the speed of whatever group or individual they're showing at the moment. Is there a reason this information can't be provided? It's amazing how fast they are apparently moving, often into the wind. I typically estimate their speed by guessing how fast I'd be going and then doubling it.

[RC Vikings]

I appreciate all the comments; my learning curve remains steep. And I love the broadcasts and am looking forward to the Pyrennes. One question: with all of the detail they provide about the race, why do they rarely, if ever, show the actual speed of the riders in real time? With all of the motorcycles and the helicopter, I assume it would be easy to show the speed of whatever group or individual they're showing at the moment. Is there a reason this information can't be provided? It's amazing how fast they are apparently moving, often into the wind. I typically estimate their speed by guessing how fast I'd be going and then doubling it.

I've often thought how cool it would be to have a real time feed on speed, heart rate and power outage from the top riders. It can't imagine it would be that hard to do.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I've often thought how cool it would be to have a real time feed on speed, heart rate and power outage from the top riders. It can't imagine it would be that hard to do.

I'm sure it's doable and would be very interesting to see in real time. But I wonder if knowing everyone's HR and wattage or others would provide a competitive advantage (knowing that someone was redlining or obviously had a lot left in the tank). At the very least, speed can't be much of a secret so they need to show that at least.

[creekster]

I've often thought how cool it would be to have a real time feed on speed, heart rate and power outage from the top riders. It can't imagine it would be that hard to do.

A few years ago Alan Lim broadcast some domestique's power tap numbers in real
time. (It might have been at the Amgen TdC and not the TdF) It didn't last however as the team pulled permission after deciding it gave too much advantage to the other teams.