CUF March Madness Bracket Challenge 2011

[scottie]

I was telling HFN Jr on the way to school this morning that if he made the right picks he would win some money. How does the pay breakdown work. I want both he and Captain to be really excited, then devastated when they win nothing!

This is the plan:

...
Reward: Winner takes the full jackpot

[scottie]

I'm open to feedback on what our scoring system should be. Please let me know your thoughts on the three options below.

I found this online discussion about March Madness / NCAA bracket scoring systems. Here's a blurb on someone's Fibonacci scoring system that I'm considering:

I have analyzed this over and over again from a mathematical / statistical point of view for quite a few years now. For the past few years I have used per-round scoring of 2-3-5-8-13-21 by round, plus a seed score of seed# x round#. It works out really well for my pool and the point balances seem to be very fair. Let me explain why I chose this system...

First, the standard round scoring of 2-3-5-8-13-21. For those of you who are mathematically inclined (or are big DaVinci Code fans), you will recognize these scores as Fibonacci numbers. This type of progression just happens to fit well with a bracket elimination type of structure, and the weighting of games in progressive rounds seems to make sense. With the more traditional 1-2-4-8-16-32 system, the championship game is worth 32X as much as any first round game, which in effect makes the first round games almost useless. With "Fibonacci" scoring, the championship game is worth 10.5X as much as each first round game, which is much more reasonable. It's not much different than your 1-2-4-6-8-12 system in that regard.

Now, for the seed# x round# part, I will admit that I was initially opposed to any kind of weighted scoring based on seeds. However, my pool participants repeatedly asked for some kind of reward for picking underdogs, so I eventually caved in. After a bunch of number crunching, I decided that seed# x round# fit in very nicely with the Fibonacci number scoring. Let's look at a couple of scenarios. Consider the 2006 tourney where George Mason went to the Final Four as an 11 seed, and Florida, a #1 seed, won the national championship. Anyone who picked Florida to go all the way would have been rewarded with 73 total points. Naturally, lots of people picked them as a champion since they were a top seed. Now, for George Mason....if you had picked them to go to the Final Four, you would have been rewarded with 128 points which is 1.75X the points you would have received for picking Florida as the champ. Considering that few 11 seeds make it to the Final Four, George Mason was a risky pick, and if you had made that pick it would have paid off accordingly.

[Flystripper]

I don't like your current scoring system. I don't think you reward the champion enough. I don't like the Yahoo default system because it does not reward the first weekend enough. I like that Fibonacci system. I vote in favor of that idea.

[byu71]

I'm open to feedback on what our scoring system should be. Please let me know your thoughts on the three options below.

I found this online discussion about March Madness / NCAA bracket scoring systems. Here's a blurb on someone's Fibonacci scoring system that I'm considering:

Whatever you choose is great with me.

[scottie]

I don't like your current scoring system. I don't think you reward the champion enough. I don't like the Yahoo default system because it does not reward the first weekend enough. I like that Fibonacci system. I vote in favor of that idea.

I appreciate the comments.

How do you feel about my Fibonacci Seed Difference Multiplier? Yahoo doesn't allow me the option of going with that guy's seed# X round#, so the way I have it in my Fibonacci table is round# X seed difference.

[Katy Lied]

My biggest question every year is always this:

Big East: Bruised and beaten from interrivalry games? Or hardened from the pounding?

[Blueintheface]

I too like the Fibonacci.

I will hire one of the lawyers on the board to represent me in the off chance I lose only as a result in the change in scoring system.

[Flystripper]

I appreciate the comments.

How do you feel about my Fibonacci Seed Difference Multiplier? Yahoo doesn't allow me the option of going with that guy's seed# X round#, so the way I have it in my Fibonacci table is round# X seed difference.

I am ok with how you modified it

[byu71]

Fibonacci? Sounds like one of my moves the girls used to enjoy.

[scottie]

I am ok with how you modified it

I think I like mine better anyway because I think his seed# x round# is too much of a reward for picking upsets. For example, in his an 11 upsetting a 3 in rd 2 means a 22 point bonus; in mine it would be a 16 point bonus. I guess they aren't that much different, but a little anyway.

[Flystripper]

I appreciate the comments.

How do you feel about my Fibonacci Seed Difference Multiplier? Yahoo doesn't allow me the option of going with that guy's seed# X round#, so the way I have it in my Fibonacci table is round# X seed difference.

wait let me runs some numbers I don't think I understood what you were doing

[Flystripper]

I think I like mine better anyway because I think his seed# x round# is too much of a reward for picking upsets. For example, in his an 11 upsetting a 3 in rd 2 means a 22 point bonus; in mine it would be a 16 point bonus. I guess they aren't that much different, but a little anyway.

ahh yeah I understand it better now. I like it.

[Flystripper]

yahoo lets you do round number X seed difference? and does it automatically for you? if so that is very cool.

[scottie]

yahoo lets you do round number X seed difference? and does it automatically for you? if so that is very cool.

It lets me pick the multiplier for the seed difference (Yahoo calculates the seed diff automatically, I had to set the multiplier values and I just went with the round #s, see here).

[Flystripper]

Scenarios under scottie's proposed system

A number 1 seed would get 2 points for a victory in round one and 21 points for a victory in round six. A number one seed would get a cumulative total of 52 points for all rounds of the tournament.

Assuming the rest of the bracket went according to chalk, a 7 seed would get 2 points in round one because it was not an upset and 57 points for a victory in round six (21+(6round*(7seed - 1seed) Assuming the rest of the tournament went according to chalk a 7 seed would get the following per round:

round 1 (7-10 match up) - 2 points
round 2 (2-7 match up) - 13 points
round 3 (3-7 match up) - 17 points
round 4 (1-7 match up) - 32 points
round 5 (1-7 match up) - 43 points
round 6 (1-7 match up) - 57 points

total cumulative points for a 7 seed assuming chalk 164

If I understand you Scottie it seems ok to me.