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2016 Presidential Predictions

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  • #1

    2016 Presidential Predictions

    I was admittedly terrible at this in 2012, but I thought I would just start a thread for people that care about making predictions. The other thread is quite active, so I thought a separate thread for predictions only would be in order (kind of like the football game discussion and prediction thread separation).

    According to RCP, these are the following toss up states:

    1. Nevada
    2. Arizona
    3. New Mexico
    4. Colorado
    5. Iowa
    6. Ohio
    7. Michigan
    8. Pennsylvania
    9. New Hampshire
    10. Maine
    11. Virginia
    12. North Carolina
    13. Georgia
    14. Florida

    Here is my Electoral Vote prediction: Hillary 307, Trump 231

    Trump wins the following tossups: Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and one of the Maine districts.

    Hillary wins the rest.

    The tossup states from closest to widest margins (by %): 1. Florida; 2. North Carolina; 3. New Hampshire; 4. Nevada; 5. Ohio; 6. Iowa; 7. Colorado; 8. Virginia; 9. Pennsylvania; 10. Arizona; 11. Maine; 12. New Mexico; 13. Georgia; 14. Michigan.

    With no tossups, RCP has it at 301 for Hillary, 237 for Trump. Flip New Hampshire (Hillary is up .6% ahead of Trump) and Florida (Hillary is up .2%), and Trump wins with 270 electoral votes.
    Part of it is based on academic grounds. Among major conferences, the Pac-10 is the best academically, largely because of Stanford, Cal and UCLA. “Colorado is on a par with Oregon,” he said. “Utah isn’t even in the picture.”
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  • #2
    The media keeps talking about Michigan today but the polling isn't really backing up the idea that Trump will win there.

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    • #3
      Hillary will win Ohio.
      I'm like LeBron James.
      -mpfunk

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      • #4
        I'm now leaning toward predicting an electoral college landslide for Clinton. I think Trump comes close in all the swing states but loses in almost every one. His lack of a serious ground game is going to be the reason, along with the fact that in those with early voting, polls would have opened a couple of weeks ago before the FBI announced they were reopening the investigation.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by BlueK View Post
          I'm now leaning toward predicting an electoral college landslide for Clinton. I think Trump comes close in all the swing states but loses in almost every one. His lack of a serious ground game is going to be the reason.
          "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
          "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
          "Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creekster

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
            WTH?!?!?! I've been telling you HClinton would win for months now. All I got was scorn.
            Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!!

            For all this His anger is not turned away, but His hand is stretched out still.

            Not long ago an obituary appeared in the Salt Lake Tribune that said the recently departed had "died doing what he enjoyed most—watching BYU lose."

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            • #7
              Originally posted by myboynoah View Post
              WTH?!?!?! I've been telling you HClinton would win for months now. All I got was scorn.
              Please. Don't do the SUwish thing. Not you.
              "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
              "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
              "Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creekster

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              • #8
                this shit is jinx city and you all really need to cut it out
                Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est.

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                • #9
                  Hillary wins more than 300 EVs. Republicans keep congress. Nothing gets done in 2 years.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Maximus View Post
                    Hillary wins more than 300 EVs. Republicans keep congress. Nothing gets done in 2 years.
                    So business as usual?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by BlueK View Post
                      I'm now leaning toward predicting an electoral college landslide for Clinton....
                      I've been thinking similarly, with the whole thing being called early after she takes Florida. But I've been wrong every step of the way with Trump so paradoxically my rising confidence makes me increasingly nervous.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by PaloAltoCougar View Post
                        I've been thinking similarly, with the whole thing being called early after she takes Florida. But I've been wrong every step of the way with Trump so paradoxically my rising confidence makes me increasingly nervous.
                        Yeah - I'm still not sure how I was so wrong about Trump fading and leaving the race to go back to Reality TV before it got ugly.

                        I'm guessing a big Hillary win. But this particular year, nothing at all will surprise me.

                        I'm still holding out hope that McMullin can win Utah. Just because I think it would be about the ONLY good thing I could see coming from the presidential election.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by PaloAltoCougar View Post
                          I've been thinking similarly, with the whole thing being called early after she takes Florida. But I've been wrong every step of the way with Trump so paradoxically my rising confidence makes me increasingly nervous.
                          Yeah, that's true. He's the horror movie serial killer who keeps coming back from the dead.

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                          • #14
                            I'm going to assume the Hispanic vote is probably being underweighted in the polls and that they'll turn out in much larger numbers than usual because of Trump's rather harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric. For that reason I think you have to give Clinton the edge for Florida, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado. If she takes all of those the numbers don't add up for Trump.

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                            • #15
                              There's no way Trump wins. Sadly, there's also no way a third party wins. Thus, we are gonna be stuck with Hillary. I doubt Trump even breaks 160 electoral votes.

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