The 2015 Market Crash

[Northwestcoug]

Hey, I have a relevant anecdotal experience to share! One of my med school surgeons had a son who was a fund manager. He told his dad that the market almost always has an upward trend, so you should never sell during a panic.

Well of course he would say that. He's part of the game! But if you don't trust the CNBC folks, maybe the wonks at 538 can convince you:

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[Uncle Ted]

I drove about 650 miles today so I had a good chance to listen to the pundits on the radio. Without exception, all of the experts interviewed stated that the US economy is doing well and they expected this correction to be short-lived. One even theorized that August is prime time for a panic to hit, because lots of the fund managers are on vacation and their flunkies are watching the shop. And those flunkies are more likely to panic.

Then again, given the certainty of his posts, it appears that CMBF might know something they don't!

Besides the big stock market crash isn't predicted to happen until next month when the stars are just right according to Julie Rowe and her prepper friends.

[Moliere]

Besides the big stock market crash isn't predicted to happen until next month when the stars are just right according to Julie Rowe and her prepper friends.

Yep, this was just a warning crash.

[byu71]

Yep, this was just a warning crash.

That would be pretty cool, like '87. Warning crash in August nasty crash in October. I remember the smart people comparing it to 1929 and to get braced for a depression.

All the people that bailed came out pretty good didn't they?

[imanihonjin]

Besides the big stock market crash isn't predicted to happen until next month when the stars are just right according to Julie Rowe and her prepper friends.

Dammit if BYU is 4-0 and then Armageddon happens, I am going to be pissed.

[Uncle Ted]

Dammit if BYU is 4-0 and then Armageddon happens, I am going to be pissed.

I am not expecting it to happen until BYU gets an invite to a P5 conference.

[wuapinmon]

Then again, given the certainty of his posts, it appears that CMBF might know something they don't!

Certainty is something he never lacks. Just ask him who'll win the next presidential election. He knows, like Mormon testimony knows, who it'll be. Beyond the shadow of a doubt.

[TripletDaddy]

Certainty is something he never lacks. Just ask him who'll win the next presidential election. He knows, like Mormon testimony knows, who it'll be. Beyond the shadow of a doubt.

haha during the last election cycle he kept insisting that Mitt would win and that certain gaffes would not wind up being Mitt's undoing. whoops!

[Bo Diddley]

I am not expecting it to happen until BYU gets an invite to a P5 conference.

Wasn't there supposed to be an announcement in October?

[falafel]

CNBC, right? These guys were saying the same thing in 2007 and 2008. The fundamentals are always strong to them and they're always cheerleading. Apparently these guys are unaware that the market has already dropped 13% this year. It's already "corrected" by their terms. They're betting that the downturn doesn't continue, but they always say that. Jim Cramer went absolutely crazy back in 2007 or 2008 because the fed wasn't lowering interest rates at a fast enough clip for him and apparently that was the real problem behind the market downturn. It wasn't the real estate bubble, it wasn't the stock market in the aggregate being overvalued -- no, it was Ben Bernanke not lowering the interest rates fast enough. Obviously, that was totally ridiculous.

Here's a short story on how great CNBC's track record was back in 2008

But anyway, he's Jim Cramer and I'm me, so go ahead and continue trusting Jim Cramer.

I heard other pundits say that everyone has known the market was overvalued due to the extended period of loose monetary policy (loose meaning, unprecedented loose monetary policy). The Fed has kept interest rates at 0% for something like 6 years now. They haven't raised the interest rate a single time since 2006.

Who are you arguing with?

[Moliere]

Wait, so Tim Cook shared insider information with Cramer, which I guess Cramer shared with his TV audience?? Isn't that some sort of SEC violation to email someone with material financial information without disclosing it to the public?

[cougjunkie]

Who are you arguing with?

Exactly. We all know the market took a hit. That is a fact, but beyond that, what is his point?

[imanihonjin]

Jeez, another dive to close the day.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

haha during the last election cycle he kept insisting that Mitt would win and that certain gaffes would not wind up being Mitt's undoing. whoops!

Did you go all in yesterday? The fundamentals are strong.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Who are you arguing with?

What do you think JL meant by "Then again, given the certainty of his posts, it appears that CMBF might know something they don't!" Do you think he was being serious?

JL talks about listening to pundits on the radio during a long trip, which means he was probably listening to CNBC on Sirius. The pundits on CNBC are either drinking the kool-aid or they're trying to please their audience.

Anyway, the market dipped yet again today. The Dow is 2700 points off its high which was reached a few months ago. So the market is now 15% off of peak. I'm predicting a bottom between 13k and 14k. If it goes down by 5000 points from the peak, that's a 27% drop. We're more than half way there. Clearly at this point that isn't a crazy prediction.