The Official Drought Thread

[Shaka]

I have no idea what to think. They are saying there's a lot of snow that has yet to melt and come down. I do know the upstream reservoirs are now full and releasing like crazy. I was there last week and it was a very enjoyable trip.

[Omaha 680]

I look at that graph every day. I'm excited, especially with the predicted storms. How much it rises is truly dependent on how much they release. The rumor is that they are cutting back on releases this year in order to get the lake to a more healthy level. If they truly do release less from the dam the rise could go far beyond 53 ft. We need about 63 ft to get The Cut open. In other news, the lake has started to rise a bit. I think that's mostly due to the rains in southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado.

Up 55 feet for the year and still filling fairly rapidly. The cut should be open in the next 10 days. Will we get to 3600? Has anyone been down yet?

[Jeff Lebowski]

Long overdue

[beefytee]

This seems like a big deal. Arizona limits new construction in Phoenix area due to water shortage.



https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/01/c...e=articleShare

Probably means property values will shoot up because of scarcity… well at least until they actually do run out if water.

[Northwestcoug]

This seems like a big deal. Arizona limits new construction in Phoenix area due to water shortage.

Arizona has determined that there is not enough groundwater for all of the housing construction that has already been approved in the Phoenix area, and will stop developers from building some new subdivisions, a sign of looming trouble in the West and other places where overuse, drought and climate change are straining water supplies.

The decision by state officials very likely means the beginning of the end to the explosive development that has made the Phoenix area the fastest growing metropolitan region in the country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/01/c...e=articleShare

[Omaha 680]

Guys, we did it! Officially best snowpack in more than 10 years and it's still snowing.

Capture.JPG

[Jeff Lebowski]

1983 was wild. In my consuming info on Lake Powell the past couple years I of course read about how GC dam managers had to deal with the 83 inflow. Cavitation failure of the spillway tunnels? Emergency plywood walls on top of the dam? How did I never learn about this before? Actually I probably learned about it in hydrology at BYU but didn't pay attention.

Oh yeah. I remember it really well. Crazy times.

[Omaha 680]

I look at that graph every day. I'm excited, especially with the predicted storms. How much it rises is truly dependent on how much they release. The rumor is that they are cutting back on releases this year in order to get the lake to a more healthy level. If they truly do release less from the dam the rise could go far beyond 53 ft. We need about 63 ft to get The Cut open. In other news, the lake has started to rise a bit. I think that's mostly due to the rains in southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado.

It also depends on management of the basin upstream correct? Last summer they loaned a lot of water to Powell to prop it up. I believe a lot of those extra releases to help powell are finally ending (e.g. at Flaming Gorge). Would love to have the cut open and I'm rooting for it but I don't want to get my hopes up too much. Our only scheduled trip this year is the week of August 6 so I'll at least be there at high water.

[Shaka]

Having only recently discovered how great Lake Powell is, I have tracked the snowpack pretty closely the past couple years. We are about to pass the 10-year high, which was set in 2019. With storms still coming, we could beat that 2019 pack by a significant margin. It is also beating the 30 year average.

Capture.JPG

The summer of 2019 (after the previous 10 year high), Powell rose 53 feet, but it was 50 feet higher than current lake level when that rise began. So all things being equal, I would expect an even greater rise this summer just because the same volume of water will drive the lake level higher when you begin a lower elevation. Of course all things probably aren't equal and I know nothing about the intricacies of climate effect on evaporation, soil soaking up the runoff, or river management approach by Interior in general that could/will effect lake level. But regardless I'm very excited about the lake being significantly higher this year.

I look at that graph every day. I'm excited, especially with the predicted storms. How much it rises is truly dependent on how much they release. The rumor is that they are cutting back on releases this year in order to get the lake to a more healthy level. If they truly do release less from the dam the rise could go far beyond 53 ft. We need about 63 ft to get The Cut open. In other news, the lake has started to rise a bit. I think that's mostly due to the rains in southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado.

[USUC]

Wasn't that also the year of the State Street River in SLC?

Yep. One of my first memories was going with my mom and grandma to see it in person.

[Pelado]

1983 was wild. In my consuming info on Lake Powell the past couple years I of course read about how GC dam managers had to deal with the 83 inflow. Cavitation failure of the spillway tunnels? Emergency plywood walls on top of the dam? How did I never learn about this before? Actually I probably learned about it in hydrology at BYU but didn't pay attention.

Wasn't that also the year of the State Street River in SLC?

[Omaha 680]

We had a fairly wet fall which typically improves soil moisture and runoff. But our deficit was so big to begin with that I am not sure how much of an impact that will have.

You are right that when the lake is low, an equivalent amount of water will result in a larger rise. Will be interesting to see what happens. Another big factor is how things warm up in the spring. What happened in '83 is that things were cool for a long time and then warmed up rapidly, leading to massive floods.

1983 was wild. In my consuming info on Lake Powell the past couple years I of course read about how GC dam managers had to deal with the 83 inflow. Cavitation failure of the spillway tunnels? Emergency plywood walls on top of the dam? How did I never learn about this before? Actually I probably learned about it in hydrology at BYU but didn't pay attention.

[Northwestcoug]

I've been compulsively following Lake Shasta's level this year. I've felt sad driving south the last couple of years looking at the level. Looking forward to driving down there in May!

[Jeff Lebowski]

Having only recently discovered how great Lake Powell is, I have tracked the snowpack pretty closely the past couple years. We are about to pass the 10-year high, which was set in 2019. With storms still coming, we could beat that 2019 pack by a significant margin. It is also beating the 30 year average.

Capture.JPG

The summer of 2019 (after the previous 10 year high), Powell rose 53 feet, but it was 50 feet higher than current lake level when that rise began. So all things being equal, I would expect an even greater rise this summer just because the same volume of water will drive the lake level higher when you begin a lower elevation. Of course all things probably aren't equal and I know nothing about the intricacies of climate effect on evaporation, soil soaking up the runoff, or river management approach by Interior in general that could/will effect lake level. But regardless I'm very excited about the lake being significantly higher this year.

We had a fairly wet fall which typically improves soil moisture and runoff. But our deficit was so big to begin with that I am not sure how much of an impact that will have.

You are right that when the lake is low, an equivalent amount of water will result in a larger rise. Will be interesting to see what happens. Another big factor is how things warm up in the spring. What happened in '83 is that things were cool for a long time and then warmed up rapidly, leading to massive floods.

[Omaha 680]

Lone Rock will be surrounded by water this year. It will be interesting to see how much they cut down on the releases from the dam. If they go conservative and our wet spring holds, we might get a rise of more than fifty feet.

Having only recently discovered how great Lake Powell is, I have tracked the snowpack pretty closely the past couple years. We are about to pass the 10-year high, which was set in 2019. With storms still coming, we could beat that 2019 pack by a significant margin. It is also beating the 30 year average.

Capture.JPG

The summer of 2019 (after the previous 10 year high), Powell rose 53 feet, but it was 50 feet higher than current lake level when that rise began. So all things being equal, I would expect an even greater rise this summer just because the same volume of water will drive the lake level higher when you begin a lower elevation. Of course all things probably aren't equal and I know nothing about the intricacies of climate effect on evaporation, soil soaking up the runoff, or river management approach by Interior in general that could/will effect lake level. But regardless I'm very excited about the lake being significantly higher this year.