Self-Driving Cars

[All-American]

How about this prediction by Walter that AI will be limited to very specific closed systems?

Things are impossible until they aren't. AA will argue that about fusion.

As I stated about 5 years ago. I still think SSC are at least 10 years out and closer to 45 years out (minus the 5 years from my previous prediction).

First of all, the fact that it was ten years ago is mildly upsetting.

Ten years in, any objective viewer would compare Walter’s prediction to that of the opening poster and say Walter got the better of the two.

The lazy retort would be, well, there’s still a lot of future ahead of us. And, sure, who knows what another ten or fifty years will bring. But what the last ten years has shown is stubborn resilience by the obstacles to autonomous vehicles, with some gains in the margins through limited automated features.

The big change that appears to be looming in the auto industry isn’t autonomous driving—it is electrification. And the resources being brought to bear to facilitate that transition illuminate the obstacles that would have to be overcome if other innovations, like autonomous vehicles, are to gain any traction.

If you are thinking in the lens of where there is governmental and investor backing, a field that is like electrification of vehicles, but unlike autonomous driving, is fusion power. I think over the next decade we will see limited gains in autonomous vehicles but significant progress toward fusion-powered electricity on a commercial scale.

Another ten years from now, you can make fun of me for that whiff too.

[Jeff Lebowski]

First of all, the fact that it was ten years ago is mildly upsetting.

Ten years in, any objective viewer would compare Walter’s prediction to that of the opening poster and say Walter got the better of the two.

The lazy retort would be, well, there’s still a lot of future ahead of us. And, sure, who knows what another ten or fifty years will bring. But what the last ten years has shown is stubborn resilience by the obstacles to autonomous vehicles, with some gains in the margins through limited automated features.

The big change that appears to be looming in the auto industry isn’t autonomous driving—it is electrification. And the resources being brought to bear to facilitate that transition illuminate the obstacles that would have to be overcome if other innovations, like autonomous vehicles, are to gain any traction.

If you are thinking in the lens of where there is governmental and investor backing, a field that is like electrification of vehicles, but unlike autonomous driving, is fusion power. I think over the next decade we will see limited gains in autonomous vehicles but significant progress toward fusion-powered electricity on a commercial scale.

Another ten years from now, you can make fun of me for that whiff too.

And 10 years after that, and 10 years after that, and 10 years after that…

[All-American]

And 10 years after that, and 10 years after that, and 10 years after that…

I have every confidence that I will be giving you reasons to laugh at me for many years hence.

[beefytee]

For the record, I'm not laughing. There could easily be a breakthrough like a flip of the switch where fusion is practical. I appreciate your optimism, even if I'm skeptical.

I wouldn't call the advancements around SDC marginal, though. I have a car now that can maintain its lane and be aware of cars around it and adjust speeds accordingly. That is a huge advancement over the car I had 10 years ago. The main practical functionality is there and there are SDCs in use today in limited situations and environments.

But, there will never be an easy flip of the switch with SDCs as compared with something like could happen with Fusion. It will be a battle all the way through that last mile to get everything to work and reach a tipping point. That is likely to take a long time.

As far as EV's are concerned. If the solid-state batteries pan out and the range increases dramatically, I think then we will hit a tipping point where ICE go away pretty quickly. We'll see. I know there has been lots of concern over power infrastructure. I'm not as concerned about that. It shouldn't be too big of an issue to build it out over time. The grid will adapt. Hopefully fusion is part of that.

[All-American]

Tesla announces that all US cars capable of FSD (full self-driving) will be enabled for a one month trial this week.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1772444422971494838

Luckily, we know from experience that no new technological innovation Musk sets his hand to ever blows up in his face, especially not in the literal sense.

[falafel]

Tesla announces that all US cars capable of FSD (full self-driving) will be enabled for a one month trial this week.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1772444422971494838

Luckily, we know from experience that no new technological innovation Musk sets his hand to ever blows up in his face, especially not in the literal sense.

Guess who's* getting an additional 30 minutes of sleep on the way to work this week!








* Its not me. I don't own a Tesla and I don't really like them.