The Fiscal Cliff

[CardiacCoug]

It's funny how people know so little about what is driving our deficits. Are you aware that if we could return to the highest Bush level spending, we would be running a surplus? Especially adding in savings from reduced spending on Iraq and Afghanistan. It's really not that hard.

The 2013 outlays are 24% higher than the 2008 outlays. IOW, if we never resumed the government functions that are currently shut down*, we would still be spending more into the next year than we spent during Bush's highest deficit years.

*assuming the 17% figure I've seen reflects outlays, and it very well may not

Interesting. Yeah I'd be in favor of going back to 2008 spending levels and running a surplus. Totally agree that a huge percentage of federal spending could be cut immediately and the country would be in better shape.

I stand corrected that the year-to-year deficits aren't due to Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security, but don't you agree that these programs are the main long-term financial problem that needs to be solved?

In my mind it really makes no sense to cut the FDA, NIH, National Parks, and whatever else might be included in that 17% and not deal with the entitlement programs. It's like a family getting rid of its $30 monthly internet bill while continuing to pay $5K/month on a mortgage.

[Jacob]

Interesting. Yeah I'd be in favor of going back to 2008 spending levels and running a surplus. Totally agree that a huge percentage of federal spending could be cut immediately and the country would be in better shape.

I stand corrected that the year-to-year deficits aren't due to Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security, but don't you agree that these programs are the main long-term financial problem that needs to be solved?

In my mind it really makes no sense to cut the FDA, NIH, National Parks, and whatever else might be included in that 17% and not deal with the entitlement programs. It's like a family getting rid of its $30 monthly internet bill while continuing to pay $5K/month on a mortgage.

I agree. Id add military spending to entitlements, those are the main line items. Why not throw in another 5% sequester? There are better ways to cut, but I'll take what I can get.

[Uncle Ted]

Senator Barack Obama should run for president...

[Surfah]

Senator Barack Obama should run for president...

As someone who has spent way too much time developing a signature, I really dig President Obama's. Clean, legible, unique and easily distinguishable.

[beefytee]

Not bad for a leftie.

[Pelado]

As someone who has spent way too much time developing a signature, I really dig President Obama's. Clean, legible, unique and easily distinguishable.

Yeah - especially when considering the result, I also took way too much time developing a signature. I really liked my dad's. My signature has never come close to being as clean, legible, or distinguishable as either Barack's or my dad's. I may have nailed unique, though.

[thesaint258]

Mine is basically random bumps. No one can forge it--not even me!

[il Padrino Ute]

As someone who has spent way too much time developing a signature, I really dig President Obama's. Clean, legible, unique and easily distinguishable.

If it had a ♥ rather than an "O", it would look like the signature of a 12 year old girl.

[calicoug]

Social Security customer satisfaction ratings? Customers?



This is not correct. SS began to run a deficit in 2010 due largely to the so-called "payroll tax holiday" in which we decided to not collect the tax es dedicated to fund SS. That "Vacation" was repealed at the beginning of this year, but according the trust fund report, it is running a small deficit still:

But $75 billion is not much of a budget decifit compared to the total deficit. So, SS, short-term, is running a small deficit but is a long-term disaster that gets worse everyday there is no reform. http://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/

From the same report, medicare doesn't appear to be running a deficit, but is also a long-term disaster.

It's funny how people know so little about what is driving our deficits. Are you aware that if we could return to the highest Bush level spending, we would be running a surplus? Especially adding in savings from reduced spending on Iraq and Afghanistan. It's really not that hard.

The 2013 outlays are 24% higher than the 2008 outlays. IOW, if we never resumed the government functions that are currently shut down*, we would still be spending more into the next year than we spent during Bush's highest deficit years.

*assuming the 17% figure I've seen reflects outlays, and it very well may not

Bush's highest budget was for fy2009. Not 2008. FYI. And the total outlays have hardly budged since then.

[calicoug]

1 month T bill rate ticks up again. Still nobody think there is a chance Moliere? Because if they don't, this is hard to explain.

This National Review article summarizes the issue well:

http://m.nationalreview.com/corner/360598/conservatives-wary-deal-robert-costa

You have a group of conservatives who aren't going to accept much of anything in "exchange" for not blowing up the economy. They are dictating Boehner's moves right now. The only way this ends well is if Boehner leaves them behind which will have serious effects on his ability to hold power. I think that's about all he cares about right now. Will he bend once it is clear we are headed to a default or will he stick with the crazies? I'm still betting he bends but I'm nervous. Many are (but not Moliere or apparently anyone Moliere knows or reads about).

Republicans are in real trouble as a party. They gave power to the crazies and now the crazies own them. I've said this would happen for years and have been roundly mocked for it. The best case scenario is that the business side of the GOP gets tired of this and realizes the Tea Party hurts them. Then they make a play to primary candidates who are nuts. We are already seeing this in Michigan and the Chamber of Commerce is now making noise about not supporting the Tea Party. Republicans are headed for an implosion and I think maybe even a party split. Let's hope Boehner realizes the right thing to do and doesn't cave to the nuts.

[Uncle Ted]

1 month T bill rate ticks up again. Still nobody think there is a chance Moliere? Because if they don't, this is hard to explain.

This National Review article summarizes the issue well:

http://m.nationalreview.com/corner/360598/conservatives-wary-deal-robert-costa

You have a group of conservatives who aren't going to accept much of anything in "exchange" for not blowing up the economy. They are dictating Boehner's moves right now. The only way this ends well is if Boehner leaves them behind which will have serious effects on his ability to hold power. I think that's about all he cares about right now. Will he bend once it is clear we are headed to a default or will he stick with the crazies? I'm still betting he bends but I'm nervous. Many are (but not Moliere or apparently anyone Moliere knows or reads about).

Republicans are in real trouble as a party. They gave power to the crazies and now the crazies own them. I've said this would happen for years and have been roundly mocked for it. The best case scenario is that the business side of the GOP gets tired of this and realizes the Tea Party hurts them. Then they make a play to primary candidates who are nuts. We are already seeing this in Michigan and the Chamber of Commerce is now making noise about not supporting the Tea Party. Republicans are headed for an implosion and I think maybe even a party split. Let's hope Boehner realizes the right thing to do and doesn't cave to the nuts.

And you don't think the dems are in trouble as a party? Obama has continued many of the Bush Jr's policies, you know, all the policies that the dems hated. e.g. His own party think he is a corporate sellout...

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And a baby killer... (it's like LBJ is back in office)

IMG_2986.JPG

If you defend Obama then you are also defending Bush Jr.

[Omaha 680]

Bush's highest budget was for fy2009. Not 2008. FYI. And the total outlays have hardly budged since then.

Wait, are you putting Obama's 2009 stimulus on Bush?

[Uncle Ted]

Wait, are you putting Obama's 2009 stimulus on Bush?

Yes, everything bad that has happened is Bush Jr's fault. It is the fantasy land that the dems like to live in.

[Uncle Ted]

What every happened to that Senator Obama?

[Uncle Ted]

Harry Reid made a good argument...

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/16/po...end.html?_r=1&