The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[Omaha 680]

Trump is hitting a ceiling in the S. Carolina polls and even starting to drop a few points. In one of the most recent ones he's down to 29%. If he was going to run away with the nomination his numbers should be into the 40s by now, especially considering he was polling almost to that level in SC only a few weeks ago. He's got the "populist" non-conformist, non-traditional types, but I don't see him being able to win over the more traditional GOP bases of evangelical social conservatives (Cruz and Carson), or the more conventional pro-business faction (split now almost evenly across Rubio, Bush and Kasich) This could very well be split along thirds by the time it gets to the convention between Trump, Cruz and whichever one of the establishment group of 3 is left standing. That would be interesting to watch.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-4151.html

I heard Gingrich of all people make a good point last night about the ceiling Trump is facing. Trump has gotten farther than anyone thought possible, but he did so in such a way that makes it impossible for him to win a majority of Republican votes, let alone win the general election. Newt said that 35% looks good in a 6 person race, but it's a loss in a 2 person race. When you look at polls that ask Republicans if the HAD to choose between Trump and one of the others, he loses pretty handily to all three establishment candidates and Cruz. So there is a very substantial anyone-but-Trump majority among the party voters.

I think the percentage of delegates Trump ultimately can get falls in a very small range. People dropping out or staying in aren't going to affect it. Whether he can win just depends on how long the rest of the field splits the rest of the delagates.

[Maximus]

I heard Gingrich of all people make a good point last night about the ceiling Trump is facing. Trump has gotten farther than anyone thought possible, but he did so in such a way that makes it impossible for him to win a majority of Republican votes, let alone win the general election. Newt said that 35% looks good in a 6 person race, but it's a loss in a 2 person race. When you look at polls that ask Republicans if the HAD to choose between Trump and one of the others, he loses pretty handily to all three establishment candidates and Cruz. So there is a very substantial anyone-but-Trump majority among the party voters.

I think the percentage of delegates Trump ultimately can get falls in a very small range. People dropping out or staying in aren't going to affect it. Whether he can win just depends on how long the rest of the field splits the rest of the delagates.

he cant win without a majority, so as long as the dropout's voters dont go to him hell never win the nomination

[byu71]

His Popeness drops the holy hammer on Trump.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/19/wo...christian.html

Not that "we" build walls, but I wonder if his Holiness would side with evangelicals and not vote for Romney because Romney is not Christian. No offense to Catholics, but I am not concerned with who his Holiness decides is Christian or not.

That said, I do think Trump is a jackass.

[Northwestcoug]

*unless they are around the Vatican

*except for the large entrance heading into St. Peter's Basilica.

Nitpicking, I know...

[Jeff Lebowski]

*unless they are around the Vatican

Wait, what? They don't let foreigners in the Vatican?

Crap, I was hoping to visit this spring.

[Moliere]

Wait, what? They don't let foreigners in the Vatican?

Crap, I was hoping to visit this spring.

Maybe you should just stay indefinitely and see what they do.

[Northwestcoug]

Wait, what? They don't let foreigners in the Vatican?

Crap, I was hoping to visit this spring.

It was fairly easy to get into last time I checked. But who knows about now? You might need to concoct an elaborate scheme that involves masks, luxury cars, and explosions.

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Good luck!

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

His Popeness drops the holy hammer on Trump.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/19/wo...christian.html

So Pope Benedict isn't going to be using Vatican asylum anymore? Wow, that should be interesting to watch what comes of that.

Maybe churches should stick to churching instead of whatever politicians do.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I keep seeing tweets and articles talking about Bernie being tied with Clinton in Nevada. I didn't see why it was a big deal because I thought South Carolina was ahead of Nevada. Well, the two parties apparently don't have their primaries/ caucuses on the same day in those states, Nevada is in front of South Carolina.

Imagine if Bernie wins in Nevada and that gives him momentum heading into South Carolina. Hillary will be looking at one tie and three losses after South Carolina when they're heading into the multi-state primaries.

[myboynoah]

His Popeness drops the holy hammer on Trump.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/19/wo...christian.html

No fan of Trump, but the Pope should stick to Poping and not define who can be called a Christian and who cannot.

[Jeff Lebowski]

No fan of Trump, but the Pope should stick to Poping and not define who can be called a Christian and who cannot.

Uh... If the pope can't offer an opinion on what it means to be a Christian, who can?

[kccougar]

Uh... If the pope can't offer an opinion on what it means to be a Christian, who can?

While the Catholic Church would reject nothing that is true or good in Mormonism or any other world religion, Catholic theology would have to note that there is a tremendous amount in Mormonism that is neither true nor good. Further, because Mormonism presents itself as a form of Christianity yet is incompatible with the historic Christian faith, sound pastoral practice would need to warn the Christian faithful: Mormon theology is blasphemous, polytheistic, and cannot be considered on par with the theology of other Christian groups.

http://www.catholic.com/quickquestions/what-does-the-catholic-church-say-about-the-practices-and-beliefs-of-mormonism

Yeah, I'm not going to pay too much attention to who the Pope classifies as Christian or not.

[frank ryan]

No fan of Trump, but the Pope should stick to Poping and not define who can be called a Christian and who cannot.

I like this Pope and think his opinion is valid. Trump isn't Christian.

[myboynoah]

Uh... If the pope can't offer an opinion on what it means to be a Christian, who can?

Hmmmm, I think I'll leave that to Christ and the individual, where it should remain. Bad move by the Pope.

[New Mexican Disaster]

Uh... If the pope can't offer an opinion on what it means to be a Christian, who can?

He's the most divisive pope of my lifetime!