The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[Northwestcoug]

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[Color Me Badd Fan]

You provided the percentages, The Washington Post reported the numbers:

PA: 68,236
WI: 27,527
MI: 11,837



If Hillary had won those three state and their combined 46 electoral votes, she gets to 274 and is the next president.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...state-margins/

There were 75k more votes cast in PA in 2016 than 2012, and turnout in Philly was comparable in both elections. Trump went after PA, just like Romney and Bush did, and Hillary stuck with the Democratic playbook. The result in Pennsylvania may not be that much of an anomaly, it's just that Trump appealed more to the rural and Western PA voters than any recent GOP candidate.

Michigan and Wisconsin on the other hand -- fewer votes were cast and Hillary took them for granted.

[byu71]

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I think he is passive aggressive. I will wait for JL to let me know if I am right.

[frank ryan]

Oh my, that's pretty deplorable behavior.

"The Trump campaign stoked the flames of the Kelly hate, the Fox News host told CNN’s Anderson Cooper in an interview on Wednesday, to the point that one of the top executives at Fox News had to explain to one of Trump’s top employees why if she “gets killed” it might be bad for their campaign.

“Michael Cohen, who is Trump's top lawyer and executive vice president with the Trump Organization had retweeted ‘let’s gut her,’ about me,” Kelly said. “At a time when the threat level was very high, which he knew. And Bill Shine, an executive vice president of Fox, called him up to say, 'You got to stop this. We understand you are angry but she's got three kids and is walking around New York.' ”

“And he didn't much care,” Kelly continued. “And what Bill Shine said to Michael Cohen was, ‘Let me put it to you in terms you can understand: If Megyn Kelly gets killed it is not going help your candidate.’ ”"

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slate...hysically.html

[All-American]

I was listening to the new podcast put out by the makers of freakonomics. Somebody observed that the roads are noticeably more dangerous on Election Day, since people are rushing to and from the polls (particularly close to closing time). The statistics actually show a given voter's decision to vote is far more likely to result in him dying than affecting the outcome.

[old_gregg]

I was listening to the new podcast put out by the makers of freakonomics. Somebody observed that the roads are noticeably more dangerous on Election Day, since people are rushing to and from the polls (particularly close to closing time). The statistics actually show a given voter's decision to vote is far more likely to result in him dying than affecting the outcome.

i listened to that too. cool idea for a podcast, i subscribed.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I was listening to the new podcast put out by the makers of freakonomics. Somebody observed that the roads are noticeably more dangerous on Election Day, since people are rushing to and from the polls (particularly close to closing time). The statistics actually show a given voter's decision to vote is far more likely to result in him dying than affecting the outcome.

Hmm... That is interesting logic. Let's crunch some numbers.

134,000,000 people voted this year.
Odds of dying in a traffic accident = 10/100K/year
Number of people in voter group dying from traffic accident in one day = 134,000,000/100,000*10/365 = 37

So you are telling me that out of 134,000,000 people who voted, less than 37 of them actually "affected the outcome"?

Have these people been identified? I would love to find out who they are.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I heard on the radio that for the first time in Utah history, more than 50% of votes were cast by mail. I would assume similar trends hold in other states. I signed our family up for mail voting in about five minutes on a utah voting website and set it to permanent mode. From now on, we get a ballot in the mail every year. Fill in the circles, drop in an envelope, and put it back in the mailbox. That's it. Supposing I only wanted to vote in the presidential election, I could literally vote in 30 seconds or less. Anyone who can't be bothered to put in that level of effort doesn't deserve to live in a democracy.

[Walter Sobchak]

100% of the votes in King County were cast by mail.

[Walter Sobchak]

100% of the votes in King County were cast by mail.

It might be all of Washington actually, but not sure if people in Eastern Washington know how to read/write.

[All-American]

The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

Hmm... That is interesting logic. Let's crunch some numbers.

134,000,000 people voted this year.
Odds of dying in a traffic accident = 10/100K/year
Number of people in voter group dying from traffic accident in one day = 134,000,000/100,000*10/365 = 37

So you are telling me that out of 134,000,000 people who voted, less than 37 of them actually "affected the outcome"?

Have these people been identified? I would love to find out who they are.

Turns out there's an article.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.forbe...?client=safari

And this article doesn't account for the Election Day spike.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/consume...?client=safari

[Uncle Ted]

I heard on the radio that for the first time in Utah history, more than 50% of votes were cast by mail. I would assume similar trends hold in other states. I signed our family up for mail voting in about five minutes on a utah voting website and set it to permanent mode. From now on, we get a ballot in the mail every year. Fill in the circles, drop in an envelope, and put it back in the mailbox. That's it. Supposing I only wanted to vote in the presidential election, I could literally vote in 30 seconds or less. Anyone who can't be bothered to put in that level of effort doesn't deserve to live in a democracy.

Voting by mail is open to fraud... e.g,

Alleged Miami-Dade Absentee Ballot Fraudster Agrees To A Plea Deal

A Miami-Dade resident accused of absentee ballot fraud has accepted a plea deal, the Miami Herald reports.


Alleged boletera Deisy Cabrera stood accused of illegally collecting at least 31 absentee ballots for local elections last August. As part of a deal for one year of probation, according to the Herald, a felony charge of absentee ballot fraud was dropped.


Instead, Cabrera reportedly pled no contest to two misdemeanor charges of possessing more than two ballots.


The 58-year-old Hialeah resident is just one of a number of alleged boleteros working local elections in Miami-Dade. Such workers are tasked with legally offering to help voters — typically seniors — fill out ballots or ensure their votes are mailed. But boleteros also have the opportunity to sway or bribe voters, change ballot selections, and forge signatures.


Some, like Cabrera, have reportedly been spotted delivering stacks of ballots — illegal to possess — to post offices or election headquarters. And multiple candidates in last year’s elections told the Herald they were contacted by boleteros offering guaranteed votes for in exchange for money.


Cabrera was pulled over last July after a tip from a private investigator prompted detectives to surveil her as she collected ballots from residential buildings in Hialeah. Before delivering them to a local post office, police said Cabrera was also spotted submitting a stack of absentee ballot request forms at the Miami-Dade Elections Department.
[...]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/1...n_4065379.html

Only thing more open to fraud would be internet voting... which would make it real easy for the Ruskies to throw an election.

Of course, I don't trust those touch screen voting machines either. There is no paper trail (no audit trail). Some have been show to be easy to hack. Hell, given how crappy these voting machines are it is hard to say if we live in a democracy or not.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Turns out there's an article.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.forbe...?client=safari

And this article doesn't account for the Election Day spike.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/consume...?client=safari

Linky no worky.

[old_gregg]

Hmm... That is interesting logic. Let's crunch some numbers.

134,000,000 people voted this year.
Odds of dying in a traffic accident = 10/100K/year
Number of people in voter group dying from traffic accident in one day = 134,000,000/100,000*10/365 = 37

So you are telling me that out of 134,000,000 people who voted, less than 37 of them actually "affected the outcome"?

Have these people been identified? I would love to find out who they are.

votes affecting the outcome are defined as those that break a tie

[All-American]

Linky no worky.

Just take my word for it then.