The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[byu71]

Just so we're clear, I'm on record for voting Hillary should Trump be the GOP nominee. I haven't changed my mind about that. And, I'm not arguing for one nomination scenario over the other. I was pointing out that I don't think it's a given that Trump will not be nominated in a brokered convention. That is because he will likely have a plurality of delegate votes, even if he doesn't get the required ~1200 before convention time. I'm not sure the GOP ready to 'disenfranchise' Trump's sizable base by nominating anyone but Trump. They might be, but if that happens I doubt the party will be the same afterwards. And, let me add, that might not be a bad thing.



We're talking about a plurality of delegate votes. I didn't say majority.

I won't say I will vote Trump, but I would vote for JL or SU before I would vote for Hillary

[BlueK]

Just so we're clear, I'm on record for voting Hillary should Trump be the GOP nominee. I haven't changed my mind about that. And, I'm not arguing for one nomination scenario over the other. I was pointing out that I don't think it's a given that Trump will not be nominated in a brokered convention. That is because he will likely have a plurality of delegate votes, even if he doesn't get the required ~1200 before convention time. I'm not sure the GOP ready to 'disenfranchise' Trump's sizable base by nominating anyone but Trump. They might be, but if that happens I doubt the party will be the same afterwards. And, let me add, that might not be a bad thing.

I'm old enough to remember "contested" conventions. As late as 1984 Walter Mondale didn't have the 50% by the time it got to the convention. He had more than anyone else. It wasn't a big deal back then. A couple of days of time to wine and dine the uncommitted delegates was no problem and he won on the first ballot. The problem today is that most people don't remember that's the way it used to work MOST of the time. The 50% rule has always been there. It's just that the parties, especially the Republicans have tried to rig the process so someone is almost guaranteed to get there before the convention. The way they rig it is by having winner take all states so a guy like Trump can get 100% of the delegates with 35% of the vote. That's every bit as "unfair" as making the candidates complete the process at the convention by convincing 50% of the delegates to go for them on the second ballot if no one can get there on the first.

Make no mistake, there is only one reason Trump and his supporters are worried and it's because they know full well Trump has gotten to where he is by burning bridges and being offensive to pretty much everyone else. In any other scenario a candidate just short of the 50% wouldn't have a problem convincing a small number of undecideds to go along.

[Northwestcoug]

Pluraity is irrelevant. the rules are the majority, or it is up in the air.

True. But given that rule, anything less than a majority has a big risk of fracturing a party. I think the party is heading towards this either way. A Trump win will drive away moderates. A contested convention with a non-Trump nominee will drive away Trump's base, not a small group. So while I sympathize and agree with the #nevertrump movement, I think it is somewhat short-sighted. The GOP needs to fix anything and everything about its nomination process that allowed someone like Trump to get this close to a nomination. I think a lost election this time around will do more to force the party to change than doing anything in the immediate term that smells of 'elitism' by the 'establishment'.

[Jeff Lebowski]

At that time Germany was in nationwide economic distress. It was during the Great Depression--a worldwide event--and the Versailles treaty was a virtual death sentence on Germany's economy. There were a lot of Germans who were suffering and understandably angry--however misdirected those motivations may have been. Here, the very system--capitalism--that these clueless losers want to blame has made their lives luxurious by comparison to Germans' in the 1930s. There's anger and suffering here, but not enough to produce another Hitler, I venture.

I have heard this explanation for years about Germany's economy being crippled by the Versailles Treaty as the root cause of the rise of Nazism, but after reading Shirer I am convinced that it was far more complex than that. Yes, the mandatory repayment/penalties were severe, but the devaluation of the German currency and other factors wiped out the debt in just a few years. I think a much bigger factor was German nationalism. The decision by the German leaders to surrender at the end of WWI was correct, but it was reached quickly and without full support of the German military so there was a strong sense of resentment from many Germans. Furthermore, many Germans wanted a constitutional monarchy and not a republic, but there were some tricks pulled to get the republic pushed through. Throw Prussian military culture and a poorly designed republic/constitution into the mix and you have a strong undercurrent of German nationalism at work. Even then, it took a patient and calculated strategy by the Nazis to manipulate their way to power. The Nazis weren't economic miracle-workers.

[happyone]

I won't say I will vote Trump, but I would vote for JL or SU before I would vote for Hillary

Same here

[dabrockster]

Working the polls here in Ohio and there are a ton of people flipping from Dem to GOP to vote in this Primary.

Majority are voting Kasich I think but more importantly they are stating they need to flip to ensure Trump does not win Ohio..

Glad to hear this..

[imanihonjin]

don't get me wrong, trump is horrifying too. and i think bernie is sincere and a good guy. but the entitlement shown by bernie, a guy with no real experience in his life other than as a public servant representing a very insular place, and his supporters is scary. and his pie in the sky economic proposal are flat out insane. he vilifies wall street and banks when he's made no showing that he has even the slightest clue about how they operate. it's too bad hillary showed such absurdly bad judgment re the email server thing, because she is otherwise the best candidate and it's not close.

Yeah, because the email server thing is the only negative against Hillary.

[dabrockster]

Yeah, because the email server thing is the only negative against Hillary.

Exactly... Kasich is the best and most qualified candidate..

[Uncle Ted]

Yeah, because the email server thing is the only negative against Hillary.

Hillary has stated that setting up that email server was a bad idea. And that we "didn't lose a single person" in Libya:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016...-in-libya.html

So all the crap that Patricia Smith is spouting off on the news channels is all lies...

I bet her son isn't even dead.

[I.J. Reilly]

Sanders Sends Vegan Thugs to Attack Peace-Loving Nazis!

Members of the unruly mob were menacingly clad in Birkenstocks and sustainable garments.

[Moliere]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...form=hootsuite

#phony #fraud

[myboynoah]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...form=hootsuite

#phony #fraud

I liked the one that said, "I'm sorry I screwed up the economy."

[Moliere]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-d...-deaths-220762

“Libya was a different kind of calculation. And we didn't lose a single person. We didn't have a problem in supporting our European and Arab allies in working with NATO,” the former secretary of state said during an MSNBC town hall on Monday night.

[Jeff Lebowski]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-d...-deaths-220762

Meh.

Clinton may have been referring strictly to the U.S.-backed overthrow of Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, which indeed saw no loss of American lives and cost just around $1 billion. But her comments ignore the 2012 attacks at the U.S. mission and CIA outpost in Benghazi, which killed four people including U.S. Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens.

After reading the book on the Benghazi incident, I am convinced it is one of the most politically overblown/hijacked events in years.

[Moliere]

Meh.


After reading the book on the Benghazi incident, I am convinced it is one of the most politically overblown/hijacked events in years.

She was technically correct, but it's an insensitive thing to say and something the GOP will run with.